The New Palm Is Gonna Bomb

By John Biggs

An “also-ran” is, literally, “a horse that does not win, place, or show in a race.” The world loves an underdog but it never loves an also-ran. It forgets about an also-ran.

And so we reach nearly the end of Palm Pre madness and I’m afraid to report that after all the magic, all the tears, all the joy the Palm Pre will be just another phone. It won’t save Palm, it won’t change paradigms, and it won’t send the iPhone hegemony crashing to its knees. The Palm Pre will launch with a whisper, not a bang.

Why? Because we hyped it too much. Because the software is untested in real-life situations and we, as neophiles, are delightfully impatient when it comes to wonky design. Because the hardware is “plasticky,” according to Boy Genius and “you often hit multiple keys at the same time while typing.” Because, to paraphrase the old saying, no matter how much you obsess and how many Apple (AAPL) engineers you hire the last opinion always falls to the consumer.

I would equate this launch to the G1. Instead of creating an entirely new trunk Palm (PALM) is branching off of the established phone environments. This new branch will be healthy and well-received and I’m sure they’ll sell a few models but this is carrier/OEM blindness at its worst. The pricing will be high, the feature set will remind the world of every other wonky LG and Samsung out there, and the OS will be half-baked at launch.

Then there’s the viral/goodwill aspect. You can’t unlock this phone in America or Europe because it doesn’t have a SIM card slot. The iPhone (I didn’t want to bring up that name but I’m trying to prove a point) was popular world-wide before it launched world-wide. This is an important fact. Then you have the fact that Sprint is considered a “meh” carrier with Verizon winner of the coverage wars and AT&T the go-to carrier for “3G.”

Eric Zeman, phonescooper, shares my opinion that this thing will be buried. The phone launches in nine days, two days before the new iPhone (and there will be a new iPhone or I’ll eat my hat (Caveat: hat must be made of jerkey)), and when it does it will join blow out like a solar flare - majestic, powerful, but all too fleeting.

Original post

Comments

[CGP:]

Bold "pre"diction

btw I linked here from an article saying Verizon will carry the Pre in six months (there goes the sucky Sprint argument if it was ever 100% valid)

also noted Pre will be able to access iTunes (feel the overhyped app store advantage eroding)....unless of course it gets locked out by a totalitarian regime

.....seems your circle of opinions has an iBias

.......what will you eat if Palm wins place or show?

May 28 12:29 PM

[RattyUK:]

@CGP Interesting that. Here we are at least 2 years down the line and yet Apple haven't gone to other carriers at all. Says more about the pre's desperation to get it out at any cost than much else.

Accessing iTunes is not the same as accessing the app store.

And Apple have every right to lock their software up. You freetards are fricking awesome.

May 28 02:05 PM

[YipYipYipee:]

It is unfortunate that the prediction may ring true. And the main reason, IMHO, is the Pre lacks the ability (i.e. no SIM card) to operate in other countries which use the GSM/EDGE/CDMA/UMTS radio standards.

As to syncing with iTunes, yes, it will sync EXISTING songs in the library, but not download new songs from the iTunes Store, and of course, nor can the Pre use any of the iPhone apps. So, it makes it convenient, but not a game changer.

I would argue the Pre would have been better off introduced to markets OUTSIDE of the U.S., where the iPhone isn't as dominant. But it's a moot point because of the reason I've outlined above.

May 28 02:08 PM

[F. J. Taylor:]

hello CGP!

My bet is that he won't be eating anything. The Palm pre, while it is a big improvement in their line, is too little, too late - to paraphrase the Gretzsky / Jobs strategy, Palm and the rest are skating to where the puck was - instead of where it is going to be, as Apple does.

Meanwhile, Apple continues to grab raves and market share, because it is tied to the best OS, the biggest App store (hardly "over-hyped" with over 30,000 choices and a billion sold ), and the slickest design and marketing in the business.

The Pre will be what all the rest of the touted iPod and iPhone "killers" to date have been - copy-cat would-be clones, put out by clueless dweebs who can't or won't do the innovative design and tech that Apple has mastered. (Note that Pre's slick design was courtesy of Jon Rubinstein, the former Apple exec?)

However, I must say that the Pre and a handful of the others are steps in the right direction, and I wish them some success - pressure from competition will keep Apple honest and innovative, and should force AT&T and others to make their plans more competitive, which I, for one, would appreciate.

I can't speak for the author, but I DO have an "iBias" - for the best of reasons. I started on an IBM XT running DOS 3.0 (lo, these many years ago!), and went on through NT and 98, also learning Unix and playing with Linux and other platforms along the road. I long ago decided Apple was the most smooth-running and well-crafted, and that their hardware and software worked seamlessly (especially in the days when they still made all their own peripherals).

I taught computers, and ran a Windows LAN and a Mac LAN. When I retired, I switched completely to Apple - and then OS X came out and blew even me away! I would NEVER voluntarily go back to Windoze of any flavor (I'd sooner stick sharpened pencils in my eyes), and if it became critical to do so, the Macs now run Windows faster and better than Dell or other Windows-specific boxes. (I tested XP on one of our MacBooks against two similarly equipped laptops.)

They also have the best and most comprehensive support systems in the industry, with the option of extending the 1 year warranty through the purchase of Apple Care - a GREAT program!!

We are a totally Apple / Mac family (3 MacBooks, 1 MacBook Pro, and the iMac I write from), and 4 iPhones. My step-son is a talented computer tech / programmer, who works for a high-tech firm in San Francisco. His personal choice, after years of Windoze, was Mac. Many of my computer skilled friends are now also making that switch. (Vista helped a lot! That sold more Macs than the cute ads! Thanks, MS!)

I hold Apple stock (long), and have made more than twice what I paid for the entire lot by selling some off when it was high. I am sitting on the rest, and if it goes low again, I will certainly buy more and hold it!

Cheers!

May 28 02:30 PM

[GSlusher:]

CGP wrote: "also noted Pre will be able to access iTunes (feel the overhyped app store advantage eroding)..."

How does that follow? The only things that the Pre can *sync* with iTunes (the computer application) will be unprotected audio and, perhaps, video files. It will not be able to *access* the iTunes Store, much less the app store. (Of course, even if a Pre could access the app store, it couldn't USE any of the apps, as they are all written for the iPhone OS.) The Pre also probably won't be able to play TV shows and movies from the iTunes Store, except those that are free/not protected.

May 28 02:59 PM

[Kris Tuttle:]

What a week for Palm. They have at least gotten themselves a ton of free publicity for this thing. It is after all just another smart phone, gotta remember that.

That several other carriers have come out and said they would be offering it is solidly good news for Palm.

I would tend to agree that based on what we can see now Palm may be just a bit too late with this to change the game at all. The momentum behind the iPhone is huge and it's tied to applications and content that are "sticky" w.r.t. Apple.

An interesting question is whether or not there is a significant segment of the market that might go for the Palm. There are the iPhone types, the Blackberry types and maybe to a lesser extent the Android and Samsung types.

On Day 1 I'm not sure Palm will be different enough but there are probably more than enough people who just have decided they want to try one for it to sell out quickly. But what new form factors and development tools they will offer to turn their new OS and devices into a platform remains to be seen.

May 29 08:16 AM

[brewer:]

@CGP, you are positively delusional. Apple never locked any of their content beyond what the labels required. It's the most open DRM ever put out, by a long shot. I think they sold the labels on the quality degrading if you re-ripped songs, but they actually held up well. And AAC is an OPEN STANDARD, which Apple uses for everything.

The pre looks PREtty ugly next to an iPhone. The tiny little keyboard, are you kidding me? How are you going to adapt that to chinese, diacritical characters, etc...

I liked Jon bettter when he was dispelling the 'megahertz myth'.

May 29 09:31 AM

[Czech:]

I thought the GSM version is coming out in Europe either at the same or maybe a couple of months later.

May 29 09:56 AM

[mollytjm:]

that picture is the new Pre? with that tiny squished up keyboard? eesh! it won't actually matter if the Pre is pretty good or not because the speed at which Apple is capable of innovation will constantly make it a game changer and leader. unlike the children's story, 'slow and steady' does not win the tech game...only good and fast can win and that's Apple in the long run, not the turtle.
i was in a waitingroom recently and the kid across from me, maybe 17, had an iphone and was playing a game, a construction worker came in and sat down, took out his iPhone and started playing a game...i'm a senior...i was already playing a game on mine..and i looked around and spotted another woman talking on one and it really hit me...the iPhone is HERE to stay. Long APPL... may it live long and prosper, along with it's stockholders.

May 29 10:21 AM

[Uncle Miltie:]

The author is spot on. I described something similar in a post I made over on the Motley Fool which made Post of the Day a week or so ago. Here it is, with a lot more reasons why the pre will simply be an also ran...

Why the Pre won't be the Next iPhone
www.fool.com/community...

May 29 10:36 AM

[CGP:]

democracy=choices
totalitarian regime=limited or no choices

iNation where do I start?

Palm can't even come in 2nd or 3rd? It can't have a miniscule 1% of 269 milliion worlwide units sold? (they can also make a GSM unit you know). You can have any phone you want as long as Apple makes it? Apple is the best so, why should anyone else make a phone? Nokia disagrees.

I think in NK, the glorius leader, Kim Jung Il, gets that title because that's all the masses hear.

Since when is selling to anybody who wants to buy desperate? isn't it good business? Selling through exclusivity could also be good business but isn't it a little manipulative?

<<I long ago decided Apple...>>
- Isn't this where the negative connotation to bias comes in? not open to new ideas regardless of merit? Winblows is an old PC\Mac argument, we're talking about a basically new mobile OS on a mobile platform not a port from the desktop. Gretzky???

btw as with the iKiller argument, iTunes and appstore are overdone. Palm isn't intending to shove Apple out of the way, just get a piece of an expanding market. What's most important for their niche is what you get out of the box, the other stuff is nice but secondary. What good are thousands of apps if most are only used once?

iPhans are way too sensitive and reactionary to the point of being fanatics......it makes for some fun reading though.

May 29 01:01 PM

[CGP:]

Oh I forgot the BB Storm sold/sells pretty well, look up its' reviews.


(...dangling piece of meat)

May 29 01:09 PM

[Economyst:]

Lets look at some facts. The BGR review that this opinion piece refers to is not a full review - there is no review of even the call quality of the phone, its multi tasking system, playing music, installing applications etc.

Secondly does this guy know anything about technology - CDMA doesn't need a SIM card and saying that is an advantage for the Iphone is brainless.

Who were the ones hyping this product - well none other than the gadet reviewers websites which he is part of.

Also referring to Zeman as evidence that the PRe will fail is preposterous as he himself refers to the review by the Boy Genius.

I neither own Apple or Palm shares but at least have some editorial review.

May 29 05:05 PM

[Economyst:]

After some digging around and reading the response from Boy Genius Report they now admit they did not do a review of the retail version of the phone.

...pg 4

On May 29, 2009 @ 3:49 pm, The Boy Genius Said:

It’s not our fault Palm/Sprint didn’t send us a final review unit.

We managed to get our hands on one, and whatever it was, it was.

This is the most recent available OS as far as we’re aware.

and... pg 5

On May 29, 2009 @ 4:32 pm, The Boy Genius Said:

@FTWDUDE

Of course. Once we have a retail unit we were planning on revisiting everything.

.....

This is shoddy reporting. If you cannot even verify the veracity of a review then whatever John Biggs has to say should be taken with some doubt.

I am neither for Palm or Apple but for honest, accurate reporting.

May 29 06:13 PM