New Home Sales: The Raw Data

Census Bureau/Hud New Residential Home Sales (.pdf)

The link above is the April new residential sales report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Sales were basically level with March.

The numbers I find interesting are the year over year comparisons. April 2009 sales were 34% below the April 2008 rate. However, the April 2009 available inventory was 35.4%. Funny how that works.

Available inventory fell by 4.2% in April as homebuildes continue to not build much.

Comments

[Mad Hedge F...:]

It's still a short. That great sucking sound you hear is the air going out of the housing recovery- punctured by the collapse of the bond market and the spike in interest rates. Interest rates on 30 year fixed rate mortgages gapped up from 5.03% to 5.29% in just one day, up from the 4.50% low two months ago. This underlines what a difficult position the government is now in. While all the stimulus spending is great, the need for epic financing is triggering a collapse of the dollar and the bond market. The resulting soaring interest rates are bound to snuff out any recovery. Obama is truly caught between the Scylla and the Charybdis. (non antiquities scholars see Homer’s Ulysses).

May 29 11:16 AM

[petej:]

In 2007, 2008, EHS (value and volume) went up from Jan to May/June/July and then fell precipitously during the Aug. to Dec. time frame.

I predict 2009 will do much the same given the new new crisis in Prime ARM resets and the record numbers (additions) of pre- and forcelosure filings in Q1 2009.

Why all the hullabaloo about a minor uptick from Mar.09 to April 09? Perhaps more of the authors should practice some disclosure on where they stand on their mortgages!!!! Seems that's the rule/law for stock advise, why not housing advise.

Disclosure: I rent in Los Angeles and have no intention of buying a house or buying the hype of a housing recovery in 09. Will reconsider my position in Nov. 2010.

May 29 12:56 PM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

If you must play, try this. Those fortunate few who took my advice to go long lumber futures (www.madhedgefundtrader... ) can now go out and build a bonfire to celebrate. Since then the homebuilder’s favorite commodity has rocketed by 35% to $200. The biggest producers, Weyerhaeuser (WY), Rayonier (RYN), or Louisiana Pacific (LPX) have also done well. The last gap up was prompted by more mustard seeds that the housing market may have hit bottom. The enormous subsidies offered to first time buyers is also helping eat into inventories. After seeing similar Chinese inspired moves in copper, crude, and coal, this is further proof of the beginning of a much broader, long term bull market in commodities. And houses don't have stop loss orders.

Jun 02 04:40 PM