Seeking Alpha

Clearly there are people who will do anything for money.

In the classic movie, "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly," the characters all, like, cheat, steal and kill as they chase after a cache of government gold. They all kill, they all try to kill each other and the only character trait they all share is that will all do anything for money. We are lucky enough to have a modern version of that, with our own government supplying GOLDman Sachs (GS) and other bad market manipulators with TARP money, which they are using not to lend money to the good citizens of the US but rather to prop up the commodities market, stealing Billions of dollars from the very people they claimed they were going to help.

Since the November bailout, consumer lending had gone down, home foreclosures have gone up, unemployment has gone up, housing has gone down yet the CRB has gone up 25%, led by oil, which is up 88% at $66 this morning. $66 oil is a noose around the neck of this economy as the it was cheaper oil that helped us begin to recover as it stayed around $40 from November through the beginning of March. On a per barrel basis alone, that was $500M a day LESS than we are paying now but, despite the fact that oil is still 54% in price from this time last year, gasoline has gone up so fast that it’s only down 23% from the prices that knocked the wheels out from our economy. Including refined products, that extra $26 a barrel is costing US consumers $1Bn a day, $365Bn a year or 1/2 of the TARP money going straight out of our economy and back to the countries that fund terrorism through the very ugly hands of GS (who are partners in ICE) and other TARP recipients who have funded and coordinated this commodity "rally," screwing the American people over with our own tax dollars.

Aside from the very obvious upgrades by the TARP-sponsored Financial houses of anything and everything that even smells like oil and the GE-sponsored 24/7 pump-fest on CNBC, we now have Goldman Sachs this morning telling the sheeple specifically to: "sell Petrobras October $34 put options for $1.95 because a U.S. economic recovery and lower petrochemical supplies will limit declines in the price of oil." What Goldman does not mention is that they were one of the "large speculators" that increased their net long positions in commodites 300% since they got their TARP money. This is just BRILLIANT - take OUR money and invest it in commodities, then pull out all the stops to run oil up 88% where these leveraged investment can pay off 10:1 and then give us our money back early at virtually no cost while keeping the 900% gains for themselves - BRILLIANT!

This is the exact same nonsense pulled by GS and company back when they were flush with cash and they drained the American public dry last year, as is documented here in "What Is Really Going On With The Price Of Crude Oil?" Of course this strategy blew up in their face and we had to bail them out when it collapsed, but not before the American people were forced to spend over $4Bn a day for petroleum products last summer - that’s $800Bn we’ll never see again - enough money to employ 16M US citizens with $50,000 jobs or enough to pay 12 Arab Sheiks and 1,000 Wall Street bonuses. Guess what they chose and guess what they are choosing again? It was also enough money to destabilize the balance of trade, throw this country into massive debt, crash the housing market and (in the one positive outcome) finally threw the Republicans out of power. Are the Democrats about to prove that they are no better? Can the same nonsense really go on less than one year after we "learned our lesson"?

Even the Libya’s Oil Minister believes there is no fundamental support for these prices, saying: "Prices are moving because the speculators are back. Fundamentals do not tally with psychology." That is certainly backed up by this week’s Petroleum Status Report, which had the very interesting statement: "Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 18.3 million barrels per day, down by 7.3 percent compared to the similar period last year." That’s right, the US Oil Cartel produced 1.5M barrrels LESS per day than last year, creating a 10.5Mb product deficit on the busiest week of the year. Not only that but imports were down 650,000 barrels a day, shorting the US another 4.5Mb of oil for the week. This data is for the week that ended Friday, May 22nd - a week when massive amounts of fuel are transferred to retail gas stations who get ready for the biggest driving weekend of the year and despite having the head start of a 15Mb shortfall in supply, the total drawdown of product was just 5.4Mb for the week. Imagine how much oil we’d be swimming in if we didn’t EXPORT over 1.8Mb PER DAY (12.6Mb/week):

4-Week Avg U.S. Total Crude Oil and Petroleum Products Exports  (Thousand Barrels per Day)

And this nation is, in fact, swimming in oil, despite the fact that speculators like GS are paying to store oil in tankers offshore and around the world in order to create the impression there is more demand than there is in this slumping global economy. We discussed this obscene practice before but it has gotten so out of hand that it now threatens to destabilize the global oil markets and Iraqi Oil Minister (hey, wasn’t that supposed to be OUR oil?), Hussain (no relation?) al-Shahristani said last week: "We don’t think it’s a wise economic decision to produce oil from secure underground fields and then pay to store it in floating tankers. Future generations can benefit from it better than we can, if we don’t need it." The suppliers KNOW they are selling us more oil than we need and they KNOW the speculators are sitting on it, the only people who don’t seem to know what’s going on here is the Obama administration and the American people who are being conned out of 16M jobs worth of money again by the same bastards we had to bail out when their last con game got busted.

That is how, using our bail-out money, the price of oil has been driven up 88% in 6 months and it will go up another 88% if this Administration is going to act as deaf, dumb and blind as the last Administration while the American people are robbed blind with over $600Bn global consumer dollars being sucked out of the economy with every $10 increase in the price of crude. We are at a 25-year high in petroleum storage in the US and we have 139M barrels more in storage than last year - an average increase of nearly 3M barrels a WEEK despite OPEC’s 29Mb/week production cut. Reuters reports that there is a "floating oil lake" that "is now so big that it is likely to keep a lid on prices for some time" as the volume of oil stored at sea has risen to record levels.

Reuters points out that the last time floating oil stock levels were anywhere near these levels was in the early 1990s after the first Gulf war. Tanks were drained then into a rising market and traders and analysts say only a rise in demand will clear the stocks now. But there is little chance of a quick recovery in oil use as the world faces its worst recession since World War Two, and the massive floating oil inventory is now haunting the market, an extra source of supply at a time when demand is extremely weak. "Out of the market and off balance sheet, everyone knows about this oil but is trying not to think about it," said Simon Wardell, director of oil research at IHS Global Insight. "It is deferred supply, an almost ethereal source of oil waiting offshore. As long as it is unused, it is effectively acting as a support for the market, but at some point it will reappear so it is acting as a ceiling on oil prices."

Of course, there are other players besides Goldman Sachs reaping huge cash rewards as they put the screws to the good people of the United States. BP's (BP) trading operations reported that Q1 "trading profit was about $500 million higher than what we would consider the normal range of quarterly volatility.” Valero (VLO) reported $150M in "profits related to trading," Shell (RDS.A)’s CFO, Peter Vose, was proud to report: "We have used some working capital actually to drive trading during the first quarter, and to a certain extent also into the second quarter" and HES said: "winning bets by its trading desk during the first quarter helped cushion the blow from $5 million in weekly losses on oil and natural-gas production, the company’s traders generated a $19 million profit in the January-to-March period." Marathon Oil (MRO), the fourth-largest U.S. oil company, also benefited from the trade: “A very small amount of crude was put in tankage for contango purposes,” said SVP, Garry Peiffer. In contrast, Chevron Corp. (CVX), the second-largest U.S. oil company said a scale-back in trading contributed to a 99 percent drop in its U.S. oil and natural-gas profits. Chevron reduced its use of derivative contracts such as futures contracts and swaps to lock in margins by an undisclosed amount during the first quarter, spokesman Jim Aleveras said during a conference call with investors and analysts.

So Pete Rose is banned from baseball for life for betting on basketball games but we not only reward the energy producers that bet the energy prices charged to US citizens will go higher but we punish the ones who choose not to participate. This is a rigged system and only government action will ever change it. What’s really sad here is that all of these bastards are just skimming profits off the barrels and those come in from overseas so it costs the citizens of the United States close to $1Tn of hard earned cash that literally goes up in smoke in order for the Big Oil/Big Broker Cartel to make $100Bn. It’s not an efficient system - it would be much cheaper for us if we just hand them their money or perhaps start lobbying for real change to stop this madness. I am making this article free so feel free to send it to whoever you can - this is a serious issue that needs to be addressed before it’s too late to save us.

We’ll find out shortly to what extent the GDP supports any of the 88% rise in oil prices since Q4. I don’t suppose we’ll have an 88% rise in GDP - in fact, they are expecting a 5.5% decline but that would be a 0.6% improvement from the preliminary reading of -6.1% so the global markets are partying in anticipation of this blessed event.

IN PROGRESS

This article is tagged with: Long & Short Ideas, Options, Macro View, Market Outlook
From Philip Davis:

USO, QQQ- Phil, thanks for these plays. Out of USO for about 65% gain today and just keeping 1/4 QQQ.

- Ksone88, July 14, 2011  


Phil, You were on the $ today with your calls almost exactly on the turns – Krap kuhn krup (Thai for thank you very much).

- Jomptien, July 14, 2011  


Thanks for the USO directions today. Made it 3 times (up/down/up) for a very nice win.

- Doro165, August 2, 2011  


Phil, I don’t know how I can thank you enough for your guidance this past week. I’m up significantly in my portfolio and I’ve never been so relaxed watching the market panic. Thanks once again for being here for us.

- thechaser, August 2, 2011  


Oil – thanks Phil, got in late at 0.53 on the 38p today, set a sell for 0.75 and took the dog for a walk – 70% gain and more than enough $$ to buy dog food. TZA Aug 35/40 BCS – closed out for a 100% gain in under a month – thanks again for introducing me to these trades.

- CanuckBob, August 2, 2011  


GOOG, NFLX and AAPL all bought last hour Friday. Sold into the excitement the first hour today for an average of 15% on the options. And lots of them. Thanks again Phil for teaching me so well.

- lflantheman, August 2, 2011  


Your board has been fantastic helping the less experienced (includes me) navigate through all the turmoil. The contributions from your members has been well rounded, objective, and extremely helpful. Sans the politics you have built a fantastic community and that is a tribute to you. I thank you and all fellow members for there contributions over the past few days. Fantastic group!

- dclark41, August 3, 2011  


Phil – Not that you dont usually, but you have DEFINITELY earned your money this week. THe recommendations have been PERFECT. Selling into the initial excitement (MULTIPLE TIMES), hedges, everything. Im reading this when I get home from work and want to cry b/c I cant trade at work! I might have to start getting up at 3 AM though to catch those trades bc youre killing it then too! May you and yours have a blessed weekend!

- Jromeha, August 5, 2011  


On Optrader’s section yesterday he was asked how he works with AAPL as an investment. He replied that he just ‘plays with the covers’. I’ve got a separate portfolio where I use primarily this technique over the past 6 months. Up 60% The principles involved are stock selection, patience, patience, using covers to protect profits, rolling covers to maximize premium return, and exiting when covers are gone and stock price is high. Sometimes it’s hard to remember where you learn to do this stuff, but much of it is from integrating principles I’ve learned here with thing I already knew. Thanks for the help on this, Phil and others.

- Iflantheman, August 8, 2011  


Thank God for Phil. A few months ago (April) I didn´t even know what hedging was, and someone recommended I should check out some of Phil´s plays, especially on the retirement portfolio. When I first started to read it, none of it made a blind bit of sense to me, but I stuck with it and gradually began to work through some of the trades to see how it worked. Now I am putting on 5:1 SPY backspreads combined with bear put spreads, entering and leaving positions after consulting the VIX, and engaging in other esoteric maneuvers that are keeping my portfolio above water.

- jmm1951, August 18, 2011  


I took $2 (up 133%) and ran on those USO puts, quite a bit more than the 20 you played in the $25KP. Thank you once again for turning a bad market week into a great personal week. You will be happy to know I am back to cashy and cautious with a few of your favorite longs into the weekend. Thanks to Phil, JRW and all the members who share their knowledge here.

- Dennis, August 18, 2011  


Phil, I just wanted to say thanks for being there. The world needs more of you. Your site continues to positively change my life daily.

- Chasw, October 18, 2011  


GIVE THANKS/PHIL Have not done my 10,000 hours, but a couple of years at PSW, and moved from fishing with a single line to owner of a commercial trawler (metaphorically speaking). Now I fish with many lines. It is amazing when you go over the same information time and time again, eventually it clicks. Like planting trees; being the house, 20% sale items, selling into the excitement. and patience. I just sold an AAPL Jan 12 340/390 BCS financed by the sales of Jan 12 275 Put. The trade was put on one year ago for a net credit and exited five minutes ago for a 49 dollar per contract profit. No point in waiting till opex to see what happens, and I will just sell 10 of those VLO puts to make myself net the round 50. I no longer worry about opex coming as I have adjusted well in time for most positions that go against me. I still make some howlers (RIMM, TBT, TRGT) but I play the percentages and my winners outdistance my losers by many miles. I would never be in this position if it were not for Phil. He is a treasure, pure and simple. The goose that lays the golden egg if we care to listen and practice. Phil, a mighty big thank you.

- Winston, January 5, 2012  


It is amazing how much confidence you engender, Phil………..I knew the 1% a day trades and repeated often were possible as I had done in stretches, and I knew kill zone trades were also possible and 5% to 10% returns per month were very possible with practice, experience and smart risk management all without having to take a lot of risk, but I guess I was talking to the disbelievers and since I have dropped them into my 'why bother to try to explain it' file and come over to the dark side at PSW I feel soooo much more content not only with the returns, but with the company and a comments and the obvious opportunity to learn and learn and learn some more. It all helps the mental and emotional discipline of the trading too. So thanks again.

- Roro, January 11, 2012  


Way to go Phil! Have I said how much I appreciate your site lately! Your ability to teach and your willingless to give others a forum to demonstrate their own skill sets makes your site remarkable. I got great help from you, jmm1951, and Iflantheman (special thanks!) today. Hell, if I have many more days like this I may even be able to sign up for a full year rather than doing it just quarterly. Tomorrow is another day but, fabulous job today!

- dclark41, January 25, 2012  


Phil- I would like to echo the sentiments of dclark41. Joining this site was the best thing I have ever done to aid my growth as a trader/investor. There are so many smart and experienced people here sharing their ideas that regardless what your investing style is you will learn something daily. Thank you and all the regular contributors for your generosity.

- Acd54, January 25, 2012  


Maya, After years of being pretty good at picking stocks I still managed to lose almost as much as I made.All the reading Phil asked us to do as a new member (And everything else I can get my hands on lately) has revealed my Achilles Heal.Good stock picks do not necessarily make money. My problem was swinging for the fences. Since becoming a member Jan 1 this year and getting into to scaling into small trades I am amazed at the steady profit growth I have experienced already while not worrying about getting killed. And having fun doing it.. Phil, Thanks for the education, the help you give and the chance to learn more and get better. Also thanks to all the members who have answered the few questions I had when your not around.

- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


You are doing a fantastic job. I think most of us our very well balanced and consequently have learned how to manage through these ever so short declines in the market without panic.

- Dclark41, April 5, 2012  


- Ricpar, February 2, 2012  


Phil has some great insight into the market. He's given me a different perspective on the market and I know I'm a better trader/investor because of it. I've been trading options since the late 80's and Phil is right. Unless you know what is going to happen (how can you, unless you have insider information), then do what the smart money does - be the house. Remember guys, we're allowed to sell options. If you're afraid to be short, then do a spread to limit your liability. When I think about the money I've made and lost on options, a good approximation is that I win 30% of the time when I do a straight buy; I win about 70% of the time when I do a spread; I win nearly 90% of the time when I sell naked.

- Autolander, April 11, 2012  


I've been trading/investing since the early 80's (my dad started me out young). I've had seven figure accounts (in the past) and I've done lots of trading, so I can say that I'm a well seasoned investor. Phil is the real deal. His trades make sense and his strategy is sound. He sees things that others miss and he's one of the best at finding price anomalies. When he makes a mistake, he has an exit strategy already planned. He hedges very well and he has an instinct which tells him to go to cash or to be all in.

- Autolander, April 13, 2012