Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday May 6.
Rise of the Anti-Buffetts. Stocks discussed: Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF), Visa (NYSE:V)
The Dow see-sawed before closing down 5 points, but the sentiment on Wall Street seems to be that, because of the positive jobs report on Friday, the economy is improving. Money managers are dumping defensive stocks and jumping into cyclicals, since the latter performs better than the former in a strong economy. The quality of the companies doesn't seem to be a concern. Well-run food and drug stocks are being sold, and troubled cyclical stocks like Alcoa (AA) and Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) (which, according to Cramer, has the poorest prospects of almost any stock he follows) are being bought by fund managers.
Cramer recalls his early days as a fund manager in the 80s, when he wanted to follow Warren Buffett's model of buying great companies and holding them for a very long time. However, once his portfolio had disappointing performance for the short term, he had to switch the portfolio and alter his strategy to please his clients. When a portfolio declines in the short-term, hardly any investor says, "My money manager is the next Warren Buffett." The typical reaction is to go find another fund manager. Once Cramer realized this, he had to say, "Sector rotation, count me in." It helps to keep in mind that money managers are often the Anti-Buffetts, and sector rotation is a fact of life on the street.
Cramer took some calls:
Visa (V) gave a "stunning" earnings report. Cramer would buy Visa on any decline.
CEO Interview: Mark Ellis, Linn Energy (NASDAQ:LINE). Other stock mentioned: Berry Petroleum (NYSE:BRY)
Linn Energy (LINE), a stock Cramer owns for his charitable trust, fell 5% on an aggressively negative article in Barron's saying the stock is overvalued and speculating that its 8.8% distribution may be cut. CEO Mark Ellis responded to these criticisms by saying that LINE's stock is valued at least the high 30s to the mid 40s (Barron's said the stock should be trading at $18, half its current price), and that the company has been "clear and transparent" concerning its accounting. The company was forthcoming about its flat production quarter over quarter, "but one quarter does not make or break a company," and Ellis expects a stronger performance in the second half of the year. The company has 100% of its natural gas hedged for 4 years and 100% of its oil hedged for 5 years. Ellis says LINE will raise its yield by 6.3% and may look for other accretive acquisitions, such as the upcoming Berry (BRY) deal. "I think many of the facts (in the Barron's article) were misleading," said Ellis.
CEO Interview: Naren Gurshahaney, ADT (NYSE:ADT)
ADT (ADT) is a major player in the home security space with 25% share. Cramer owns this stock for his charitable trust and thinks it could be a takeover target, but he adds that ADT has more going for it than that. In its recent earnings report, ADT's EPS was 2 cents shy of analyst estimates on weaker than expected margins. The stock fell, but is trading above its level prior to earnings. CEO Naren Gurshahaney says the company saw strong sequential growth because of its strong product portfolio, including Pulse. Gurshahaney says he is not concerned about competition, and added that he is committed to the company's $2 billion buyback. While margins were hurt by required spending in the first quarter, the strength of the housing boom will be a driver for ADT. "This is an inexpensive and compelling situation," said Cramer.
CEO Irwin Simon, Hain Celestial (NASDAQ:HAIN)
Hain Celestial (HAIN) reported a quarter that disappointed the Street, as the stock fell $2 on in line earnings and revenue that fell 2.14% short of analyst expectations. Revenue guidance was below what the Street expected. The stock has had a 246% gain since Cramer got behind it in 2010. CEO Irwin Simon explained that promotions in the U.K. by major supermarket chains hurt revenues, but he added that Hain is making acquisitions in the U.K. that will help transform Hain into a global brand. He noted that Hain grew at a 9% clip, compared to the average for food stocks, 2.2%. Europe seems to be bottoming, and Hain still has plenty of runway in the U.S. 14 of Hain's brands saw double digit growth; "We are building our global brands bit by bit," said Irwin Simon.
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