Microsoft Xbox Natal: A Leap Forward in Gaming

The BBC has a really good interview here which is well worth watching. And I must admit that the more I read and think about this, the more impressed I am.

The Wiimote will now be seen as interim technology, a side story on the road to the whole body interface. Having face (and emotion) recognition in Natal is a big step forward with huge gaming potential. Allied to the whole body scanning and voice recognition we have something that is of groundbreaking importance.

Sony (SNE) is rumored to have a PS3 gesture interface announcement later Tuesday. If it does not measure up to Natal they are in even bigger trouble than they were already. And the Nintendo Wii looks very previous generation now, sales will surely take a big dive, even with the inevitable steep price reductions. The announcement of SuperWii will be as soon as possible. The Xbox 360 could yet become the best selling console in this generation.

Natal has immense possibilities way beyond recreational gaming. Sports coaching, medical rehabilitation and military training spring immediately to mind. In fact any human activity where you have to build neuromuscular facilitation.

The limitations put on the human imagination by previous gaming interfaces have all been swept away. A lot of clever and creative people are going to do a lot of clever and creative things with Natal.

Comments

[Mark Bern:]

A good look into the future of gaming! This really could have applications in many different areas other than gaming. It looks as though it could also be a lot of fun just for gaming, as well. While gaming is only a small piece of what Microsoft does, this could certainly help that division's growth on both the top and bottom lines. This is just one way in which the big softie can create new growth opportunities through proper use of its huge cash surpluses. It could have a major advantage over its competition if it can learn to utilize its resources in new areas by creating innovative disruptive technologies. Ballmer understands this concept and this may be just the first step, if successful.

Jun 02 03:53 PM

[Gaucho420:]

What about pricing? Is everyone off their kilter still, that no one is remembering that oh so distant failure called the PS3???

So a 360 is $299...this add on is $600 at retail right now and most beleive it will be $200 when it comes out. Xbox Live is $50/year. So combined, that's $550. What about a game for this peripheral?

I beleive this is too little, too late...given how many PS2 units still sell, suggesting many households are not that impressed with the Wii/360/PS3 and the fact that so many mom & pop households have a Wii already, meaning they'll need to invest in a new system all together to enjoy this new type of gaming??? I don't see the typical Wii crowd re-investing yet again on a new system...I see this launch by MSFT to be very cool indeed, but to be limited in success by its price and the fact that most Wii households already own a Wii and will not dish out yet more money for another console and its game...there's no way this will happen.

So I disagree completly with your analysis...its easy to say this is going to be a big hit when your a techy & where price simply has no weight on your tech decisions, as tech is your life, but 90% of the country considers price first and foremost, the success of the PS2/Wii/DS over the PS3/360/PSP shows that technology just doesn't matter as much at this particular price range.

So very cool, but unless the 360 and the peripheral combined sells for $250 or less, it'll be dead in the water, as the existing hardcores on the 360 don't exactly get up off the couch much and will not go out and buy this in droves. Analysis has shown that barely any households have both a 360/PS3 & Wii and I expect this to continue. I own both and enjoy them both, but I am a rare hard-core gamer and most of my 360 friends don't like the Wii much outside of get-together parties...so no, I don't see this having much success, at all. In fact, no one 360 gamer I know and I know quite a few, females, males all ages...is very much interested in this at all. In fact, I'd say its turn them off more than anything.

Its the wrong product, at the wrong price, on the wrong system and its late 2010 date really does shoot it in the foot even more, as that's more Wii households who'll never upgrade to this product.

Additionaly, my small survey of gamers also suggest all 360 gamers are very apprehensive about this add-on, given that most have had their 360s die once, including one person I know who's had his die three times and is now weighing going to the Wii, due solely to the poor reliability of the 360 and its high costs. And finallly, I will state most are very weary of anything MSFT puts out as 1st gen, as let's face it...its always a work in progress.

So outside of the gaming techies who make this their life...in the real world, in Los Angeles, with hard-cores...the reception is chilly and apprehensive, as we're all waiting to see just how MSFT will F'd it up and $200 additional to spend on the 360, when most of us already spent $90 on a WIFI antenna...is a bit much to swallow.

So no...cool tech, wrong console, wrong audience, wrong timing and wrong price.

Jun 02 04:43 PM

[melante:]

To Gaucho420:
no, this is not "too little, too late" but, on the contrary, "too much, too early"! If it really works as shown, this will be amazing and opening countless new possibilities. Anyway, as long as I don't see and try it personally, I'll remain a little doubtful on its real robustness and effectiveness.

Jun 02 11:46 PM

[Madison:]

I think Natal will be really cool, but in games like Assassins Creed 2, or Fable 2 when our avatar does those super-human moves like double back-filps and stuff like that are we going to have to do those moves? Or in first-person shooters how is the shooting going to work, or in racing games when we have our hands suspended in mid-air trying to work it like a wheel won't our hands get tired after a bit? I think we should have the control to play most games with Natal and a few without Natal. Also Natal will probably be quite pricey, and I'm not completly convinced that Natal will be able to hear our voices clearly, like "Natal, play Grand Theft Auto 4," and Natal will be like "use a clear voice," and I'll be like "play Grand Theft Auto 4," and I just don't think that will work very well. I also have a question that will probably go unanswered, anyway my question is, does that kid Milo, come with Natal or is that just for the demo of Natal? I would really like to have a friend that I could control, so like when you don't have any frinds with you, you could be like "Natal, show me Milo," and then you could have a friend to hang out with. So with those concerns and hopes for Natal over-all I think Natal will be 10 times better than the Wii and amazing. -Madison C.

Jun 03 04:23 PM

[Gaucho420:]

Its too little too late for this generation, when one particular console (The Wii) has already wrapped up a huge amount of the audience that would be interested in Project Natal and when that particular audience (non core gamers) are highly unlikely to upgrade to something new, this soon and for this cost. In addition, the reaction from hard core gamers I know has been one giant MEH...as in, if we wanted this, we'd own a Wii. So its too little, too late in terms of marketing & making money, not the technology, which clearly is very cool.

I may pick it up as I've got money to burn and I love gaming, but other than me, who's apparently in a very small category who owns a Wii & 360, most of the remaining audience falls on one side of the tracks and either owns a Wii or wouldn't be interested in a motion capture camera...people tend to forget that the hard core gamers usually sit on a couch and don't move...it'll be hard to break those gamers out of their habits and disdain for physical activity. IE- know any hard core gamers that play Gears, Halo or COD4 and also own Wii Fit? I don't and I know quite a few gamers.


On Jun 02 11:46 PM melante wrote:

> To Gaucho420:
> no, this is not "too little, too late" but, on the contrary, "too
> much, too early"! If it really works as shown, this will be amazing
> and opening countless new possibilities. Anyway, as long as I don't
> see and try it personally, I'll remain a little doubtful on its real
> robustness and effectiveness.

Jun 04 06:01 PM

[Gaucho420:]

And for racing, project natal will stink...holding out your hands with no steering wheel to support them it is quite tiring and is not reflective of how your drive. Which is why MarioKart Wii works best with the Gamecube controller.

Jun 04 06:03 PM

[I.H.:]

Natal sounds so cool!

Jun 05 08:02 AM

[Boaz Berkowitz:]

I know a few gamers who have both Call of Duty and Wii Fit. I happen to be one of them. Though I admit the Wii Fit, pretty much sits on a shelf. And it was intended for my wife so I'm not sure that counts :)

Video games and exercise don't mix well. Natal might change that but games are supposed to be fun and for most gamers, exercise is anything but. Game like the Wii Fit don't hold as much appeal for us because it doesn't successfully fulfill either role - its not nearly as fun as other games yet doesn't come anywhere near "real" exercise.


On Jun 04 06:01 PM Gaucho420 wrote:

> Its too little too late for this generation, when one particular
> console (The Wii) has already wrapped up a huge amount of the audience
> that would be interested in Project Natal and when that particular
> audience (non core gamers) are highly unlikely to upgrade to something
> new, this soon and for this cost. In addition, the reaction from
> hard core gamers I know has been one giant MEH...as in, if we wanted
> this, we'd own a Wii. So its too little, too late in terms of marketing
> & making money, not the technology, which clearly is very cool.
>
>
> I may pick it up as I've got money to burn and I love gaming, but
> other than me, who's apparently in a very small category who owns
> a Wii & 360, most of the remaining audience falls on one side
> of the tracks and either owns a Wii or wouldn't be interested in
> a motion capture camera...people tend to forget that the hard core
> gamers usually sit on a couch and don't move...it'll be hard to break
> those gamers out of their habits and disdain for physical activity.
> IE- know any hard core gamers that play Gears, Halo or COD4 and also
> own Wii Fit? I don't and I know quite a few gamers.

Jun 05 08:08 AM