Secondary Technology Stocks Are Acting Muy Bueno

While the main tech horsemen get all the press, the secondary names are acting very well. Instead of selling, since I only have about 40% long allocation, I am placing trailing stops in case the market ever goes down for more than 3-5% again, so I can lock in gains. I am changing these (moving them up) almost every day it seems but for now

1. Starent Networks (STAR) trailing stop @ $21.50
2. Riverbed Technology (RVBD) trailing stop @ $20.90
3. Skyworks Solutions (SWKS) trailing stop @ $9.70

The strategy here is if there is any serious pullback, to sell 1/2-2/3 at above prices then repurchase "some point" lower. In uptrending charts, I like to make the first repurchase around the 20 day moving average, and then a larger batch at the 50 day. But generally stocks favored by the momentum players never even get back to the 50 day moving average. The risk is the market swoops down just enough to take me out of positions and then reverses and I sit here with not much long exposure in my hands as we race to S&P 2500.



I had been debating adding Marvell Technology (MRVL) or former fund holding Broadcom (BRCM) a month or so ago; looks like Broadcom is the people's champ.


But frankly I should have just allocated much bigger positions into the 3 names we already own. In full intellectual honesty, with a market that is so correlated between individual stocks and the overall index, I don't know what to make of these moves. Are they strokes of brilliance in stock picking? Or simply the rising tide lifts all boats?

I tend to side with the latter case, and will continue saying this is NOT a "stockpickers" market - it is an "asset / sector allocation" market. So many charts of stocks in the same sector look almost identical - even broad sectors like 'technology'. For example - any brilliance in picking Riverbed Technology (RVBD) over F5 Networks (FFIV)? I doubt it - institutions are deploying money or hedge funds are buying up sectors and "we all go up". Throw your dart, and hit the right sector and we all feel 'smart'.

The "networkers" continue to act very well; this group was discussed 2 months ago [Apr 8: Stimulus Fire Hydrant (Worldwide) Should Benefit Networking Companies / Broadband] [Apr 9: Juniper Networks (JNPR) and F5 Networks (FFIV) Benefit from Low Expectations]

Disclosure: Long Riverbed Technology, Skyworks Solutions, Starent Networks in fund; no personal position

Comments

[HaavBline:]

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On Jun 02 08:20 PM breee wrote:

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>
>
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>
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>
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> good articles...is.gd/HGYt

Jun 02 08:50 PM

[John Galt:]

I can honestly say I don't know much about those tech names minus Marvel and Broadcom but I'll agree with you that it's a sector/Asset allocation market and not a stock pickers market.

With that being said, you need to know when to ring the register too. I've sold stocks too early and missed out on gains, and I've also held onto stocks too long and watch gains slip away. You live, you learn.

$

Jun 02 10:03 PM

[Alan Young:]

I don't have the detailed knowledge of the field that would be needed to pick through these names. And they don't get into ETFs, AFAIK: QQQQ is just the top 100.

Jun 02 10:42 PM

[TraderMark:]

2 of these stops hits today, STAR and SWKS

I already miss STAR :)

But discipline is discipline.

Jun 03 03:34 PM

[Stone Fox C...:]

RVBD held strong today. My pick to add now would be ALVR. Its lagged the rally as usual and has a ton of support just below the current price. Plus they are a huge emerging market play.

Jun 03 05:34 PM