Will $1,000 Gold Signal a Rush to Buy Juniors? 20 comments
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With the gold price closing on $1,000 and silver just through $16 an ounce again, gold stocks have been showing big advances in the past week.
However, it is still possible to find quality junior gold exploration stocks with prices little changed since the wipe-out last autumn. These are almost certainly the last great bargains available in this bull run for precious metals.
Dot-com parallel
The obvious parallel is the dot-com stocks in the IT boom of the late 90s, which rose exponentially late in the day on unrealistic expectations about the future. For junior explorers are a gamble at the best of times. But they do actually own the claims to future gold and silver mines.
In a true bull market for precious metals the values of these mineral exploration rights will rise exponentially as it becomes economic to explore for gold and silver with the prize for discovery rising sharply in value. If you want to own those claims buy juniors.
However, this interest comes later in the precious metal investment cycle. You need to see higher prices first, and think that they are going to last or go higher, before you commit to an exploration project.
But that leaves a big opportunity for early investors. The companies with those absolutely essential claims are out-of-favor and available on the cheap. The art then is to separate the wheat from the chaff and buy the better juniors before others wake up to the idea.
It is tempting to give a small list of such juniors with excellent claims in politically stable regions but that can wait for another article. It is only too easy to be dismissed as a share tout when discussing this asset class, and that overshadows the investment argument.
Stock selection
So where is the flaw in this case, aside from the difficulty of stock selection for which a number of good websites exist?
Well, we saw that last autumn when a general stock market crash pulled down the gold price and crashed the juniors. Will that happen again?
It is not impossible, but if the price of gold and silver continues to rise – and with bonds also under pressure precious metal prices may not fall like last autumn – then the time to buy juniors is now. Sit and wait if you like but that might be too late for the best deals.
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On Jun 03 07:16 AM DONE_SONZ wrote:
> The rising tide floats all boats eventually.One must still be selective
> when picking juniors though.Any suggestions?
Bottom line, if there is no ETF create your own simulation.
On Jun 03 06:58 AM Roger Knights wrote:
> There ought to be an ETF for some juniors (and even also for some
> junior juniors), just as there is for the seniors. (If there is,
> and I'm unaware of it, pipe up!)
The Sinclair Rabbit heads jumped all over her. They, of course, never answered why Sinclair printed a false statement.
All and sundry: Read the 10ks and Q's.
She read them, I read them, you can read them.
There was Not a Single named Insider holding a Single share of TRE. Its a two man Operation.
Sinclair provides millions in Tranches, gets Hundreds of thousands of shares but is not Identifiable as a shareholder in a two man operation! Give me a break.
Meanwhile, that 43-101 was from the pressure of the Barron's article. My opinion, continue to expect it to be filed. This prospect has been on the Rumor mill for more than 3 years. The 43-101 is in the Process.
When did the Hunts try to corner the Silver Market?
Sinclair's Bio has him listed as the "Chief Precious Metals Advisor to the Hunt Family, 1981-1984."
I'll wait for the report to be filed, for a sponsor, etc.
If it turns into something, I'll reconsider it.
Take a look at a 5 year chart, people have been reamed for years in this. This reaming started long before last years collapse.
On Jun 04 12:04 AM Sakata wrote:
> I don't know of one, so I created my own. Back at the end of October
> I selected some very basic criteria and randomly selected 50 juniors
> which fit them and bought an equal dollar amount of each. If added
> and removed a few along the way but as of yesterday I was up 105%
> after commisions.. I haven't checked today's figures yet but it
> looks like a 5% loss today, so over all I am up about 100%. It would
> probably have been better but I didn't implement my 20% stop loss
> intil about two months ago - previously I had it set at a lower percentage
> and was forced out of a few holdings.
>
> Bottom line, if there is no ETF create your own simulation.
On Jun 04 12:46 AM harammph wrote:
> There was an article a while back on SA, Freya reamed Sinclair for
> printing what was blatantly false.
>
> The Sinclair Rabbit heads jumped all over her. They, of course, never
> answered why Sinclair printed a false statement.
>
> All and sundry: Read the 10ks and Q's.
>
> She read them, I read them, you can read them.
>
> There was Not a Single named Insider holding a Single share of TRE.
> Its a two man Operation.
>
> Sinclair provides millions in Tranches, gets Hundreds of thousands
> of shares but is not Identifiable as a shareholder in a two man operation!
> Give me a break.
>
On Jun 04 01:35 AM optionsgirl wrote:
> Sakata- why don't you write an article about it? I bet a lot of people
> would want to read it!
But, if you want a better opinion than mine, Both Money Flow and OBV started getting out of TRE in late May as it was moving up.
Other than that, how many employees does the company have?
How many 3rd parties are interested in this "discovery" which has been around for many years?
This is a Hype driven company with absolutely nothing concrete, rising totally on the reputation of one man, Jim Sinclair.
5, 10, 15 years ago, there was similar hype about one Bernie Madoff. There were a few whistle blowers but they were ignored.
You can continue to ignore the whistles as the hot air continues to trickle out. I've got better places to put my money without the risk that TRE poses, my opinion, your opinion.
Gold was near a $1,000 again, TRE moved up to what? 1/3rd of its long ago highs on some more Hype of a work in progress, of a report years overdue.
Who knows? Everything may pan out-pun intended- but I will wait until someone outside of his organization does an independent study.
Incidentally Jim Sinclair does not strike me as a Bernie Madoff - his website is dedicated to transparency not obfuscation!
And how dare you describe my articles as 'totally fictional' - that is libelous. The article on Rothschild was based on the huge study 'The World's Banker' by Niall Ferguson. I would not presume to make anything up about the Rothschilds.
You should get your own historical facts right before writing these nonsense comments.
Guess it must be a Misprint on their Part.
There is No "accurate collaboration", there are only attempts to gather info from articles 30 years after the Incident. Ferguson wasn't alive and wasn't Able to "Collaborate" with anyone.
The Rothschild's did their own investigation. In the Wikipedia, the whole incident is listed as a "legend".
Nathan Mayer Rothschild was the Patriarch, true or false?
Nathaniel Rothschild was 3 years old, true or false?
The Very first paragraphs of your Article called Nathanial Rothschild the Patriarch of the Rothschild Family, true or false?
The Article is a Fabrication from the Start.
On Jun 04 10:55 AM Sakata wrote:
> Because you have to identify yourself to have an article published
> on SA and I have no desire to do that.
They should Have Been: The House of Rothschild vol 1, 1770-1848
The House of Rothschild vol 2, 1849-1999
I became confused Because Ferguson named the 2nd Volume
" The House of Rothschild vol 2: The World's Banker" and had another Book Called the "World's Banker".
"A few fellow academics have questioned Ferguson's commitment to scholarship. For example, in the article quoted above Priyamvada Gopal characterizes Ferguson's popular work as "half-truths and fanciful speculation, shorn of academic protocols such as footnotes". Benjamin Wallace-Wells, an editor of The Washington Monthly, comments that
"The House of Rothschild remains Ferguson's only major work to have received prizes and wide acclaim from other historians. Research restrains sweeping, absolute claims: Rothschild is the last book Ferguson wrote for which he did original archival work, and his detailed knowledge of his subject meant that his arguments for it couldn't be too grand."
There are at least 10 Books on the London Branch of the Rothschild Family. You picked the One Author who believes in Virtual History and CounterFactual Theory.