Nintendo's in Poor Position Amongst Competitors

In the light of the tour de force that Microsoft (MSFT) presented at this year’s E3, it is very difficult for the other platform holders to compete. And Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) didn’t.

Nintendo is in a poor position. Their home console for this generation, the Wii, is the least capable, being just an upgrade of the previous generation GameCube. It has been incredibly successful because of it’s innovative gesture controller and a small number of high quality platform exclusive games. But it lacks the equivalent of an Xbox Live or even a Playstation Network. And its main party trick, the gesture controller, has now been trumped by the Microsoft Natal. The Wii also does not support HDTV and does not come with a hard drive.

Sales wise the Wii has peaked in most markets and in Japan it is very weak. It now looks very expensive compared to the Xbox 360, a competitor which has a lot more to offer.

So Nintendo announced Wii Fit Plus, a new 2D version of Super Mario Bros, presumably aimed at children, Super Mario Galaxy 2 and Wii Vitality Sensor, a device to read your pulse. Hardly setting the world alight and showing all the signs of a platform nearing the end of its life.

One has to wonder firstly how long the Wii can sustain its premium price and secondly how close we are to seeing its successor, the SuperWii.

On the handheld front the DSi is getting good initial sales, presumably from existing DS owners upgrading. However it is now looking positively archaic compared to the more modern phone based devices like iPhone and Android. Nintendo need to act quickly not to be left behind in this market.

Comments

[cirej2000:]

Uhhhh. I agree with you that Nintendo is behind the times hardware wise and and that the new motion controls from SONY and MS have the potential to nullify the Wii Remote.

However, there are no big games announced yet for the new controls on the HD consoles.

Nintendo doesn't really need an HD most of the games wouldn't benefit from it and the fact that you can now download Virtual Console games and run them from an SDHC card of up to 32 GB, sort of reduces that point of yours.

As for Super Mario Brothers, it's not just for kids. 2D side scrollers are huge games for many core gamers. And the DS version of the game was a multi-million seller. I wish the Wii version had online capabilites, but alas it doesn't, however it will sell.

You forgot to mention the announcement of the New Metroid which is being done in conjunction with Tecmo's Team Ninja development crew. This is the team responsible for the bloody, difficult and very hardcore Ninja Gaiden series of games.

And you also don't mention 3rd-party exclusives such as Tatsunoko Vs Capcom (fighter), The Conduit (FPS), Silent Hill, DeadSpace Extraction, Monster Hunter 3, Spyborgs and well, I could go on.

I already have a 360 and a PS3, so the prospect of playing Call of Duty, Resistance, Halo or Killzone in HD with full motion controls is exciting to me. However, with Call of Duty Modern warfare 2 due out in November and the other games having released in 2007 and 2008...we're going to have to wait a while before seeing this wish come to fruition.

Oh and the price isn't premium. The cheap version of the 360 is still a heavily gimped version of the system. I wouldn't buy it. And it still doesn't come with the Natal. The price is cheap, but if low price alone was enough...then I doubt that Microsoft and Sony would be resorting to "gimmicks" to bolster sales at this point in the game.

Jun 03 11:36 AM

[Gaucho420:]

I agree, the Big N is in poor position, tech wise and game wise, except for price. But that is a big, big issue or if it wasn't, how do you explain the PS2 routinely outselling the PS3? Why is it that consumers go to the store to pick up a 10-year old console over its super duper brethen? P-R-I-C-E.

Perhaps in another language, you will understand...Cest le prix!!!!

So until we all grow money trees, price will always be the top decision maker at this price level...the TurboGraphx16, NeoGeo, and now PS3 are all superb points of videogame history that show that price trumps over top tech, nearly all the time.

So while the motion conrol camera is cool, its price certainly isn't and while the PS3 has Blue-Ray, its price is absolutly ridiculous.

Let's no forget the sting of the 360 failing 2-3 years into its life as another sting that current 360 owners may avoid and probably feel a bit gipped about.

So while I agree that if was a brand new launch, Nintendo would be in trouble (if MSFT and SNE priced it right)...but with the Wii already sold in 50 million homes, with the 360 being way too expensive when you add in Xbox Live, the WIFI antenna, extra controllers, etc...and with the PS3 already an utter failure...I beleive Nintendo will still be ahead, as I don't see mom & pops who already own a Wii going out and spending nearly $500 on a 360, only to then hear little timmy's contact use the N word, call Jews terrible names, and be as racist as racist can be...for $500. Hearing ethic disparities over Xbox Live gets pretty old, folks...I'm going on over 3 years of it now and I simply hate getting on there and having to put up with that crap after putting in a hard days work...I certainly wouldn't want my kids exposed to it.

Tech isn't the only thing that goes into a consumer's decision! You'd all be much wiser remembering this, we don't live in a tech vacuum where price, culture of the entertainment and perceived value suddenly disappear due to a fancy camera.

Jun 03 01:32 PM

[Zenfar:]

Ok first it is possible that the Wii has peaked. But they have had a great run and lightning can strike at any time with this console and company. Another Wii Fit could be just around the corner. 3rd party support will be much better for the Wii this holiday season. The enhanced motion control add-on for the Wii controller will allow several sword fight / light saber games to become popular.

Overall counting hardware, software, and online I see them as a strong second place to Microsoft.

Jun 04 09:14 AM

[psychicfriend:]

I agree that the MS demo looks great, and generally has the potential along with XBL and movie downloads to eat into the family-friendly waters of Nintendo's big blue ocean - but there are two major hurdles for MS to overcome:
1) The titles. Nintendo "dares to be stupid" with the family and gesture-friendly games they release. Will Microsoft be able to come up with their own Wii Sports?
2) This new system is still a Microsoft product. What's the likelihood that it will actually work in version 1.0? Gesture recognition may work great in tailored demos, but it is still going to be plagued with the same sorts of issues as its retarded cousins speech recognition and handwriting recognition.
I am sure that it will work great by the time the XBOX 720 comes out, but I would expect the initial version to be result in a lot of angry early adopters.

Jun 04 02:49 PM

[cirej2000:]

However, if the news that Natal is going to be backwards compatible is true. Then I'm getting it possibly on launch. If I can play COD4 and Modern Warfare 2 with it (wonder if my wife will let me use my unloaded SKS in the living room :) then it's definitely a "MUST HAVE"!!

Jun 05 11:23 AM

[misterd:]

1. How is Nintendo in a poor position? It has the least expensive yet most profitabe consoles (with plenty of room for Wii price cuts), the largest user base, and the best selling games.

2. The Natal and the PiiMote won't be available for over a year - they weren't even hands on at E3- and we have no killer apps for them yet. Meanwhile the WiiMotion Plus is launching in a month, with wide third party support, and the sequel to a pop-culture phenomenon. All Sony and MS did in this conference was put aside a chunk of time to declare "We were wrong, Nintendo was right, and we're jumping on the bandwagon!"

3. Wii sales have been weak in Japan? They've been on par with the PS3 (though leading by a large margin for most of the console's life), and still is double the 360s weekly sales.

4. How can you call yourself a gaming professional and believe that a 2D Mario platformers is "aimed at children"?

5. Wii Fit 2, NSMB Wii, Wii Sports Resort, Mario Galaxy 2 and the next Zelda (if you consider it announced at the conference) will all break 5m in sales their first year, and some may well break 10m lifetime. Show me ANY 5 games by MS or Sony that will do likewise.

6. When will you learn it isn't about the hardware? Wii has NEVER had HD graphics, it has NEVER had robust online play, and yet it has always and continues to stomp its competition. The same is even more true of the handhelds. The GameBoy line could never compete technologically with GameGear, Lynx, TurboExpress or the N-Gage. Everyone seemed to snicker at the DS touchscreen, and expected the PSP to finally topple Nintendo's dominance. Instead, the DS became a phenomenon, and the PSP struggled to sell software, and its UMD movies were a disaster.

7. The most legitimate complaint that could be leveled at the Wii to this point was a lack of quality third party support. Many of us said "wait two years", as it would take that time for 3Ps to develop quality games after seeing the Wii's success. Lo and behold, we get a plethora of titles, many pushing the Wii's graphics to new limits, many aimed at adult and core audiences, shown at E3, and due to be released in the next year. The Conduit we all know about, but add in Red Steel 2, Grinders, Sin and Punishment 2, Dead Space, Murasma, and Team Ninja's Metroid, and clearly the issue is resolved. Nintendo's even allowing several third party titles (2 or 3 by my count) to package the WM+, which will both spread the user base for the new peripheral as well as drive up sales for those titles.

Seriously, I don't know how many times you can be wrong about this company and its console, and still be taken seriously as an analyst.

Jun 07 12:53 PM