The markets have been on an absolute tear in 2013. The markets are setting all time highs as I write. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 13% in 2013 trading at $162.64, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is up 15.0%, trading at $150.26. This action continues the positive run that began in November after a brief 5% correction. This leads one to question whether we are finally seeing a top in this market. Since that time, we have not seen any type of correction besides a day or two of down 1% days. What can we expect going forward? Well, the markets generally do poorly in the summer months and well in the winter months. Over the last 60 years, we have seen an average gain of less than half a percentage point from May through October, while in the winter months we have had an average gain of 7%. It seems like a reasonable time to take some profits given historical performance.
There are fundamental triggers that could cause selling that may cause some to sell. How about earnings? A multitude of disappointing earnings reports could start a sell-off in the market. In fact, disappointing earnings often can weigh on markets. Continued reports of top line revenue and bottom line earnings that miss estimates could give more credence to the belief that an economic slowdown is on the horizon. There is some evidence that markets are slowing, as evidenced by the recent Chicago PMI report or continued weak job numbers. Housing has been a bright spot, though there is chatter of a bubble now. Although GDP grew 2.5% in Q1, it was still less than expected. More lackluster economic reports could signal that it is time for a correction in the markets. The recent jobs number catapulted the Dow over 15,000, but how long can small positive news drive new highs? If coming economic reports come in much lower than expected, be prepared for a sell-off. And we cannot forget what is happening overseas. Japan tries spending its way into economic growth, leading to deflation there, while the European debt crisis has not gone away. When it returns to the spotlight, it could be the excuse folks need to knock the financial markets down 8-10%.
When the inevitable correction starts, it could happen over the course of a few weeks. Thus, traders may want to put on some bearish positions to protect or even continue to grow capital. Those who are bearish could consider selling stock, selling covered calls on their positions, shorting stocks, buying puts or investing in a volatility or bear fund. While each of these approaches has its respective benefits and risks, in this article, I want to highlight three leveraged quick-pick ETF funds that could provide great short-term returns in the event of a market sell-off.
ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS): For those with a risk appetite seeking to make a leveraged bet to the downside, consider a potentially profitable position in SDS. This leveraged fund seeks daily investment results that correspond to twice the inverse of the daily performance of the S&P 500. The management team of the SDS invests in common stock issued by public companies. The management team of SDS also invests in certain 'derivatives', which are financial instruments whose value is derived from the value of an underlying asset, interest rate or index.
SDS recently underwent a one-for-four reverse split to bolster the share price, as the nearly four-year bull market took its toll on this fund's value. The value of shares not only depreciated from being sold down with other bearish plays during the bull market, but was also hurt by its expense ratio (0.89%) and the fact that it is adjusted daily. Funds that seek daily performance never track the long-term performance of an underlying index due to a concept known as "slippage." More on that can be found here.
Despite this fact, daily leveraged funds such as the SDS, in periods of panic and bearishness, perform exceptionally well. Thus, a well-timed position can be very profitable. SDS currently trades at $40.56 a share. SDS has average daily volume of 10.7 million shares exchanging hands. SDS has a 52-week range of $40.52-$73.04.
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x ETF (SPXS): For those with the highest appetite for risk, besides investors who are willing to short stocks, the SPXS can be considered for heavily leveraged bearish exposure among large cap stocks. SPXS, formerly the Direxion Daily Large Cap Bear 3X fund, seeks daily investment results before fees and expenses of 300% of the inverse of the price performance of the S&P 500 Index. As with other funds, there is no guarantee the fund will meet its stated investment objective and is subject to slippage as described above. The fund also has a higher 1.14% annual expense ratio.
The SPXS management team likes to create short positions by investing at least 80% of its net assets in: futures contracts; options on securities, indices and futures contracts; equity caps, collars and floors; swap agreements; forward contracts; short positions; reverse repurchase agreements; ETFs; and other financial instruments that, in combination, provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the S&P 500. Given this approach, in times of market sell-offs, the SPXS will deliver outsized returns. Thus, this fund should be considered by those who seek to profit from panic that could result from a fast sell-off that jolts the market.
SPXS currently trades at $10.83 a share. SPXS has average daily volume of 3.1 million shares exchanging hands. SPXS has a 52-week trading range of $10.82-$26.83.
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA): This is my favorite way to invest in a bear market short term. It is also of the highest risk category given its leveraged nature. TZA management seeks daily investment results of 300% of the inverse of the price performance of the Russell 2000 Index (also known as the small cap index). The Russell 2000 (IWM) measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the United States equity universe and consists of the smallest 2,000 companies in the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership.
TZA actually does not invest in equity securities or stocks. What TZA does is creates short positions by investing at least 80% of its net assets in financial instruments to provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the small cap index and the remainder in money market instruments. TZA recently underwent a reverse split, thus it seems to be trading higher than in the past. It now currently trades at $33.81 a share on average daily volume of 6.5 million shares. TZA has a 52-week range of $33.79-$98.64.
Conclusion: There are many approaches investors can take to position accordingly for market panic. While we have had a great bull run in the last few months and the last few years as a whole, macro news such as turmoil in Europe, bad economic reports and poor earnings could be what finally triggers the next sell-off. I suspect markets will indeed drop soon on fundamental news. For those who are brave, shorting the SPY or DIA is an option. Buying put options or selling calls on the SPY and DIA is another option for those believing the sell-off is coming. Finally, allocating some funds to the aforementioned bearish funds is an option, as they will perform very well and yield short-term gains in response to the market panic that will ensue if sell in May and go away becomes reality.