Amazon - In April, Amazon came in at 30.6% which is a slight decrease from March's 31.6%.
As our ChannelAdvisor model had predicted, Amazon.com saw a slight deceleration in revenue growth from Q4 2012 to Q1 2013, thus missing consensus revenue estimates. The model thus kept its perfect record on calling the direction of Amazon.com's revenue growth rate.
Now, as we get the first datapoint for Q2, what will the model be saying? Let us see where we stand (green is the new data, red is the present consensus):
So basically the average reported growth (by ChannelAdvisor) for Q2 2013 stands at +30.6% year-on-year right now, this is less than the growth reported on Q1 (+33.6%) so it implies a further growth deceleration for Amazon.com as a whole. Yet, the present consensus is still calling for +22.7% growth in Q2 2013, versus +21.9% reported growth in Q1 2013. Although the difference is minor, at this point the model is still indicating further deceleration below what the consensus is expecting.
As such, right now this model - which has gotten the direction of Amazon.com's revenue growth rate right 100% of the time - is still predicting that Amazon.com will miss Q2 2013 consensus revenue estimates.
Much like I predicted that Amazon.com would miss revenue estimates for Q1 2013 based on ChannelAdvisor data, I'm now predicting the same for Q2 2013. The differences aren't large, but one has to trust a model which has gotten it right 100% of the time.
Disclosure: I am short AMZN. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.