Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR) is expected to report earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, May 8. The whisper number is $0.71, two cents behind analysts' estimate. Whisper numbers range from a low of $0.65 to a high of $0.78. GMCR has a 56% positive surprise history, having topped the whisper number in five of the nine earnings reports for which we have data.
- Beat whisper: 5 quarters
- Met whisper: 0 quarters
- Missed whisper: 4 quarters
Our primary focus is on post-earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post-earnings price movement within a one- and 30-trading-day time frame:
Click to enlarge images.
The strongest price movement of +5.3% comes within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +27.3% within 30 trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price movement is positive through 30 trading days when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
Last quarter, the company reported earnings six cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report, the stock realized an 8.7% loss in after-hours trading, dropped an additional 2.2% in five trading days, but recovered showing a 22% gain in 30 trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) a positive price reactor through 30 trading days when the company reports earnings.
Enter your expectations and view more earnings information here, or let us know your expectations in the comments section below. Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you who have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.