U.S. Jobs Propaganda Gets More Desperate

by: Jeff Nielson

With another fraudulent U.S. monthly jobs-report due out today, the U.S. propaganda-machine is uttering one absurdity after another.

Thursday, it was trumpeting the news that “continuing claims” fell last month for the first time in five months. The first point to make here is that if last month's number had not been revised higher (as is happening every month) then continuing claims would have increased, not decreased.

The second point to make about this nonsense is that the tiny decline of 15,000 (from a total of nearly 7 million) is statistically insignificant. In other words, there is a statistical “margin of error” with all such reports and that margin of error is much greater than 15,000.

Finally, even if this report had shown some marginal decrease in “continuing claims” (greater than the margin of error), it does not imply an improvement in the job market. This is a neutral statistic regarding month-to-month changes in employment.

The reason? If the number of people continuing to receive unemployment decreases, there are two equally probable explanations as to what has occurred to change this number. It might mean that some of these people found jobs, or, it could simply mean that their unemployment insurance expired.

When the propagandists present a statistically insignificant number which does not imply a positive change in this market as unambiguously “good news”, then this is nothing less than a deliberate attempt to deceive.

Similarly, the propagandists have frequently reported that the weekly lay-offs statistic is “improving”. Yet every one of these “improvements" occurs only because the previous week's “final estimate” is always revised higher – since the original number is always a “low-ball” estimate of the real weekly lay-offs. Thus, despite all these “improvements" in the weekly lay-off figures, there has been no statistically significant improvement – at all.

Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to pretend that the net job-losses for May will be slightly over 500,000. This doesn't even qualify as an estimate, since it is a complete fabrication. I have dealt with this issue previously (see “U.S. economy to lose 20 MILLION jobs this year”). However, with the propagandists continuing to produce these outrageous lies every month, it is sadly necessary for me to repeat my denunciation of these ridiculous lies.

In early 2008, at the beginning of the collapse of the U.S. economy, there were roughly 1.3 million lay-offs each month. The net job losses for those months was virtually flat. Thus, as a matter of simple arithmetic, last year (when the U.S. economy was much stronger), there were roughly 1.3 million new positions being created each month to offset those weekly lay-offs.

This year, the weekly lay-offs have totaled 2.5 million to 3 million every month. Obviously, the U.S. economy is producing far fewer positions than it was in early 2008. In other words, the U.S. economy is producing far fewer than 1.3 million new position each month. A reasonable estimate (if not generous) is that the U.S. economy is producing half as many new positions each month (i.e. roughly 600,000 new positions).

If we add that reasonable number of new positions (600,000) to the total monthly lay-offs of between 2.5 million and 3 million, we see that the U.S. is losing a minimum of 2 million jobs per month. This is more than three times the fictional numbers produced by the BLS. There is no possibility that a huge error of this magnitude could be an honest mistake.

Thus, the supposed monthly job-loss numbers from the BLS are deliberate, manufactured fraud – which should be painfully obvious to anyone capable of performing simple arithmetic. Anyone who defends these numbers is (implicitly) either a liar or an idiot.