Wide Range of Forecasts for Unemployment Numbers

Below is the latest long term survey for unemployment. Needless to say, analysts have a wide range of potential outcomes. Note that the Fed will stay consistent with their views as they are locked into assumptions made with the stress tests. If the deviate, banks will need to raise capital and concern for the long-term stability will again rise.

Better to look at the Median Forecast. Of course today will bring a new high close to 9.3% for the reported rate. Markets will surely do well if that is the maximum reported, but consumer related may continue to see weakness that started Thursday.

Comments

[carey_jim:]

Confucius said, in one of his Analects, that it is better to be qualified for a job than to have a job you aren't qualified for.

Chinese legend has it that Confucius never found a job even though he looked for one all his life.

So much for the relationship between employment and wisdom.

Jun 05 11:29 AM