Job Market Not as Bad as Expected

The jobs numbers are out today. Unemployment hit 9.4% last month and the non-farm payrolls fell by 345,000 which was much less than the 525,000 loss Wall Street was expecting.

The unemployment hasn't been this high since August 1983. The rate is being reported as 9.4% but looking at the details, it's 9.357% which rounds up.

See how the last two bars on the NFP graph look like the beginning of a trend. That's what the market has been so excited about.

Comments

[PastTense]

The government is doing massive fiscal and monetary stimulus and the country is still losing 345,000 jobs a month.

1. What happens when the country stops this massive fiscal and monetary stimulus?

2. Or conversely what happens if the the government continues this massive fiscal and monetary stimulus?

Some of us see very bad things happening either way--If 1. Major jobs losses, major GDP declines--a major economic crisis. If 2. then major inflation--a major economic crisis.

2009 Jun 05 02:55 PM

[Al-USA]

Good points with commenter PastTense above. I would add that the metrics in computing unemployment now versus 1983 are different: it started in President Clinton's administration when they decided to exclude certain people from the computation of the unemployment figures. They also "redefined" the metrics for computing inflation.

The end result is that today, with the "redefined" metrics , the unemployment rate is much less than if computed with the 1983 metrics. Shadowstats.com has the comparable rates to 1983 and, if one uses the 1983 metrics, the rate for the unemployed would almost be double, or 9.4%x2 or near 18%! So, at least be aware that your USA government "cooks" the numbers readers.

2009 Jun 05 03:14 PM

[Dave Wrixon]

They can cook it all they like. The reality won't go away. Hidden unemployed still show up in reduced Company Profits, lower Tax Revenues and higher loan defaults. They may have cooked the books to try to save the dollar's ass but it will only make things worse. This administration has been making things worse ever since it landed, and after Bush that has to rate as quite some achievement.


On Jun 05 03:14 PM Al-USA wrote:

> Good points with commenter PastTense above. I would add that the
> metrics in computing unemployment now versus 1983 are different:
> it started in President Clinton's administration when they decided
> to exclude certain people from the computation of the unemployment
> figures. They also "redefined" the metrics for computing inflation.
>
>
> The end result is that today, with the "redefined" metrics , the
> unemployment rate is much less than if computed with the 1983 metrics.
> Shadowstats.com has the comparable rates to 1983 and, if one uses
> the 1983 metrics, the rate for the unemployed would almost be double,
> or 9.4%x2 or near 18%! So, at least be aware that your USA government
> "cooks" the numbers readers.

2009 Jun 05 06:42 PM

[zep]

Why is everybody surprised? We all knew that 2009 would be a very tough year. Those that make it through will probably feel improvements next year as the stimulus money really gets spent.

2009 Jun 05 09:24 PM

[enigmaman]

reading between the lines of the report, weekly hoiurs worked dropped is equivolent to losing 375k jobs, good news you keep your job, bad news you make less. If you make less you spend less and save more, both showing up in reports. If the fed said recent 4% saving rate hurts recovery what about the 5.7% now, not a mention, why? Consumer spending falling off the cliff, not a mention, why? what about unemployment at 9.4% the admin said the bank stress test that everybody passed was based on a worst case scenario with unemployment at the end of the year being 8.7%, so what do they say about the health of banking when the unemployment rate surpasses there worst case scenario 7 months earlier then expected and only 1 month after the stress test results were revealed. Wonder when or if we will get the REST OF THE STORY. Believe half of what you hear and 100% of what you see, consumer skepticism is reflected in recent polls with 80% not believing this recovery is for real.

2009 Jun 06 09:45 AM

[Donald Ingram]

Two farmers take shelter from an approaching tornado. Upon emerging from the shelter and finding everything totally destroyed, the one farmer starts to lament that fact, until interrupted by the other who says, "at least its not windy anymore!"
Had one arm chopped off! But that's okay - still got the other one!
Bet everything on my favorite number - seven, on the seventh horse, in the seventh race.And sure as heck! He came in seventh!
NOT AS BAD AS EXPECTED. Sickening.

2009 Jun 06 10:58 AM