Why I'm Not Buying Biovest... Yet

Every year about this time, the biotech and pharma world turns its focus to the annual American Society of Clinical Oncologist [ASCO]. I’m told by a few readers who concentrate on these stocks that the hit from this year’s meeting was a tiny pink sheet stock called Biovest (BVTI.PK).

Biovest presented in the plenary session of ASCO last Sunday – a notable achievement in its own right for a penny stock. According to Biovest,

an eight year pivotal, randomized, multi-center, double-blind, controlled Phase III clinical study has shown that BiovaxID® (personalized therapeutic anti-cancer vaccine) significantly prolonged disease-free survival in follicular non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The study, which is being featured at today’s American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting Plenary Session, found that patients who received BiovaxID experienced a median disease-free survival of 44.2 months compared to 30.6 months for those who received a control vaccine – an increase of 47 percent. In the study, with a median follow-up of 4.7 years, patients receiving BiovaxID experienced a 38% lower risk of disease recurrence compared to patients receiving the control vaccine. BiovaxID is the first ever vaccine targeting lymphoma to demonstrate such a disease-free survival benefit.

Some question marks remain. The study apparently used an unorthodox method of computing survival time (per Adam Feuerstein of TheStreet.com), and even then the survival differential was just under the threshold of establishing statistical significance.

But there’s no denying that the market viewed the presentation positively. BVTI opened up on Monday up nearly 200% and traded over 5 million shares. And then it dropped. BVTI gave up about half of its gains during that first trading day, and another chunk in the days that followed. Biovest settled the week substantially above its pre-ASCO levels, but without the follow-through anticipated by Monday’s buyers.

That may be a problem. All of the people who bought on the ASCO news are now underwater, creating an overhang of resistance that will be tough to penetrate. Even if the treatment holds potential — and for now lets assume that it does — what is the catalyst to force shares higher over the next several weeks?

Two other wildcards concern me. First, the parent company and majority owner of Biovest, Accentia Biopharmaceuticals [ABPIQ.PK], is in bankruptcy. I don’t have a good sense of what will happen to the Biovest holdings in that restructuring. Second, even if Accentia was doing fine, Biovest will still need to raise money. That means more dilution — par for the course with biotechs, but still a negative incremental factor.

Bottom line: There may be a good trade here, but I’m going to wait for a better entry. The chart looks like it is headed below $.50 before finding support, and may even fill that gap down to $.35. I like the risk-reward a lot better at those levels. Maybe I’ll take a shot if it gets there, but for now I’m content to watch this one from the sidelines.

DISCLOSURE: No position.

Comments

[Q.PK:]

[As posted ono Microcap Investor-same article]

Do your homework and do some simple math, you are pickinig the wrong horse. BVTI is 75% owned by ABPIQ. ABPIQ has 51M shares, and BVTI has 97M shares. ABPIQ now at .40 and BVTI now at .61????

ABPIQ owes $32M in secured debt and 30M unsecured. BVTI owes 33.5M secured and 15M unsecured. Both are operating under chapter 11 with plans to emerge intact this fall, current with filings and listed. Partnerships in the works, sales through the Named Patient Program in EU = money to satisfy court with repayment schedule. Also a different drug Revimmune for MS in Partnership discussion and planned Phase 3 trial.

The very unusual upside here is because of the “Q.PK”. If it was not for this it would be trading more like DNDN and nowhere near where it is now. Once listed and Bio Analyst (just now watching and waiting) are able to report, we should be trading somewhere between $10-20 a share for ABPIQ. Both stocks will do well, but simple math will tell you ABPIQ is the horse you should be riding.

I predict that this will be your largest % mover over next 6 months. The “Q.PK” spefically is presenting a 4,000% move to $16.

Bottom line- don’t wait too long for better entry point looking at a few cents when it’s the dollars you should be looking at.

Your welcome

Jun 07 08:12 AM

[svygear:]

Why I'm Buying *Access Pharma*... Now

After reading this article, I was reminded of another oncology-related stock that was brought to my attention recently, ACCESS PHARMACEUTICALS, which now has a press release regarding THIARABINE COMBINATION that can be viewed at:
pitch.pe/14217

Please note that the ticker for this particular oncology stock is: ACCP.

Regards,
svygear

Jun 08 03:44 PM

[User 427940:]

what do you think bvti will be trading at once its listed?


On Jun 07 08:12 AM Q.PK wrote:

> [As posted ono Microcap Investor-same article]
>
> Do your homework and do some simple math, you are pickinig the wrong
> horse. BVTI is 75% owned by ABPIQ. ABPIQ has 51M shares, and BVTI
> has 97M shares. ABPIQ now at .40 and BVTI now at .61????
>
> ABPIQ owes $32M in secured debt and 30M unsecured. BVTI owes 33.5M
> secured and 15M unsecured. Both are operating under chapter 11 with
> plans to emerge intact this fall, current with filings and listed.
> Partnerships in the works, sales through the Named Patient Program
> in EU = money to satisfy court with repayment schedule. Also a different
> drug Revimmune for MS in Partnership discussion and planned Phase
> 3 trial.
>
> The very unusual upside here is because of the “Q.PK”. If it was
> not for this it would be trading more like DNDN and nowhere near
> where it is now. Once listed and Bio Analyst (just now watching and
> waiting) are able to report, we should be trading somewhere between
> $10-20 a share for ABPIQ. Both stocks will do well, but simple math
> will tell you ABPIQ is the horse you should be riding.
>
> I predict that this will be your largest % mover over next 6 months.
> The “Q.PK” spefically is presenting a 4,000% move to $16.
>
> Bottom line- don’t wait too long for better entry point looking at
> a few cents when it’s the dollars you should be looking at.
>
> Your welcome

Jun 08 07:45 PM

[Ellito:]

Q.PK;
agree with you 100%.
BVTI now at 35 cents,
can be $5.00 or higher few months down the road.
It's Phase 3 anti-cancer vaccine, worth my bet.

Jun 15 05:34 AM