Earnings Preview: 2 Companies That Could Surprise

By Charles Rotblut

S&P 500 members Brown Forman (BF.B), National Semiconductor (NSM) and Pall Corporation (PLL) headline what will be a very light earnings calendar. Only 37 companies are confirmed to report.

On the economic front, the Fed will release its periodic Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon. The next morning we will get May retail sales numbers from the Commerce Department.

• Tuesday: April wholesale inventories
• Wednesday: Fed Beige Book, April trade deficit, May treasury budget, weekly crude inventories
• Thursday: May retail sales, weekly initial jobless claims
• Friday: Initial June University of Michigan consumer confidence, May import and export prices

Three Fed officials are scheduled to speak. Governor Daniel Tarullo will talk about financial regulation at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Governor Elizabeth Duke will deliver a lunchtime speech about consumer protection in Cleveland. Finally, Atlanta Fed Reserve President Dennis Lockhart will talk about the economy at a conference in Atlanta on Thursday.

The smartphone market will be in focus.

Palm's (PALM) next generation phone, the Pre, went on sale on Saturday (Jun 6). Expect to hear some discussion about sales and initial reaction by customers.

Competitor Apple (AAPL) is expected to release details about a new iPhone. A software developers conference starts today and there is speculation that Steve Jobs will be the one introducing the new mobile device.

The markets are stuck in a trading range. Given the light amount of data, there doesn't seem be a reason to think that things will change this week.

This said, keep an eye on Wednesday and Thursday, however. The combination of the Beige Book, speeches from Fed officials, oil inventories and a 10-year treasury auction (Wednesday at 1 p.m.) could get some traders to be more active.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Fiscal-fourth quarter estimates for National Semiconductor (NSM) have been gradually improving. The current consensus estimate, which calls for a loss of 44 cents per share, is 3 cents better than the average forecast of a month ago. The most accurate estimate is slightly more bullish and calls for a loss of 42 cents per share. Though NSM has topped expectations twice in the past 4 quarters, it has also missed twice, so this is a risky call. National Semiconductor is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jun 11, after the close of trading.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

The Talbots Inc. (TLB) has not only disappointed investors for 2 consecutive quarters, but it missed estimates by wide margins. Brokerage analysts are bracing for a first-quarter loss of 49 cents per share, but the most accurate estimate suggests the retailer could post a wider loss of 52 cents per share. Talbots is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Jun 9, before the start of trading.