Cramer's Mad Money - Reckless Speculative Generals (5/9/13)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Thursday May 9.

Reckless Speculative Generals: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Micron (NASDAQ:MU), Boston Scientific (NYSE:BSX), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (NASDAQ:GMCR), Barnes & Noble (NYSE:BKS). Other stocks mentioned: Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX), Transocean (NYSE:RIG).

The Dow surged before reversing on Thursday. Cramer is seeing signs of froth, given what kind of stocks were the generals leading the rally. The huge gainers on Thursday included Tesla (TSLA), Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), Micron (MU), Boston Scientific (BSX) and Barnes & Noble (BKS). These stocks are either speculative or have sizeable short positions. A movement in the market is defined by the "generals" or the stocks leading the rally. Given the unstable nature of the "generals," Cramer would be careful going forward, since the move seems volatile.

Micron (MU) and Boston Scientific (BSX) were both stocks stuck in a range and are not best of breed, but nevertheless, rose higher on Thursday. Tesla (TSLA) is a stock with a loyal following among bulls, but with a short position of 46%. The "intelligentsia" on the street dislikes TSLA, GMCR and BKS, and there are sound reasons to be bearish, but Cramer isn't sure whether these stocks are on the way higher or will drop. They are too volatile to be trusted.

The intelligentsia on the street regards Tesla CEO Elon Musk as a "blowhard" who is not to be trusted concerning the profitability of the company. "I don't want to touch Tesla," Cramer said, "but I do want to know more about it."

Green Mountain rose 16 points because the impending war between the company and Starbucks (SBUX) reached a truce in the form of a 5 year partnership. Starbucks might end up selling Keurigs in its stores, which might reverse the bearish thesis for GMCR. Barnes and Noble's (BKS) Nook product might be bought by Microsoft (MSFT). While BKS is in a declining industry, it is still the best house in a bad neighborhood. While those hungry for speculation might consider the above stocks as buys, Cramer cautioned that they have already risen significantly, but did not say definitively that they could not go higher. Regarding the market in general, "It needs to cool down, and needs to cool down right now."

Cramer took some calls:

Transocean (RIG) is an inexpensive stock. Carl Icahn wants to bring out value. The company has good contracts and its yield is safe. Ideally, Cramer would buy it below $50, but he isn't sure investors are going to get that chance.

Joseph Papa, CEO Perrigo (NASDAQ:PRGO). Other stocks mentioned: Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), PetSmart (NASDAQ:PETM)

With a some signs of improvement in the economy, will consumers who switched to private label brands to save money return to buying branded products? Perrigo (PRGO) specializes in private label products, and with the acquisition of Sergeant Pet Care, has expanded into animal health. The company has been successful selling branded Sergeant products along with store versions at retailers like PetSmart (PETM).

The company reported a 2 cent earnings miss on an 18% increase in revenues, which was lighter than the street expected. PRGO raised guidance, but that wasn't enough for the street; the stock sold off, but has regained lost territory and is just under its 52 week high. The stock has risen 152% since Cramer got behind it in February 2010. CEO Joseph Papa said that 90% of consumers who switch to private label brands stay with the store brands, and retailers benefit from these products because they improve operating margins. The private label brands can save consumers up to 30%, and improvements in packaging make the items attractive, especially if they resemble the mainstream brand.

Perrigo gained significant market share as the result of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) products that had been recalled. Even with the JNJ products returning to the market, Papa believes it will retain customers who switched from JNJ. One of Perrigo's most popular products is a much cheaper alternative to Mucinex, which treats chest congestion, and Papa believes it will be a leading product when flu season begins.

Cramer urged investors to look beyond the headlines. "This was a pretty darn good quarter."

CEO Interview: Matt Roberts, OpenTable (NASDAQ:OPEN). Other stock mentioned: Yelp (NYSE:YELP)

OpenTable (OPEN) has become an online reservation service that most restaurants can't afford to do without. The company generates revenues from subscriptions and fees per reservation. The company beat earnings estimates by 2 cents and revenues rose 15%, which were a bit less than Wall Street expected. Management gave in-line guidance. "High growth rates are in our future," said CEO Matt Roberts. Mobile has been a huge positive for the company, and is convenient, since OpenTable doesn't have to monetize mobile differently from desktop.

Companies that would be competitors like Yelp (YELP) actually have partnerships with OPEN. The lackluster economy in the U.K. was a light headwind for OPEN, but Roberts noted the industry was down just 1% globally year over year. Bears have criticized the apparently low number of additional restaurants added in the first quarter; "We are looking at robust additions (for the rest of the year)," said Roberts. OpenTable makes it simple for customers to cancel reservations; this has decreased substantially the number of no-shows or last minute cancellations which are "really bad for the restaurant's business."

Cramer recommends viewers do their own research on OpenTable. "Their metrics seem right."


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