By Matt Doiron
One quantitative screen, which investors can run to identify potential undervalued stocks is to look for low PEG ratios, a metric which is calculated by combining the P/E multiple and the consensus earnings growth rate. Analysts aren't always correct, of course, so it's important to combine looking at the PEG ratio with additional analysis. We decided to also screen stocks which are "cheap" by this measure for their dividend yield in order to potentially identify interesting names, which investors can research further. Using data from Fidelity, here are five stocks with a market capitalization of $1 billion or more, PEG ratios of 0.9 or lower, and dividend yields of 3% or higher:
The combination of "undervalued" and high yield often produces some interesting results, and the first stock on our list is Russian TV company CTC Media (CTCM). Dividends have been fluctuating over the last couple years, but were recently increased to 15 cents per share per quarter; at current prices, that is an annual yield of over 5%. The stock is actually not cheap in terms of trailing earnings, with a P/E multiple of 21; the sell-side is simply expecting high earnings growth. We would note, however, that net income actually fell last quarter compared with the first quarter of 2012.
Newmont Mining (NEM), a $16 billion market cap gold miner, also satisfies our criteria with a fairly low PEG ratio and with a recent increase in its quarterly dividend payment resulting in a high dividend yield at current prices. However, the gold market has not been doing well recently and in fact Newmont itself has fallen 27% in the last year. Revenue and earnings have fallen at double-digit rates compared with a year ago. Billionaire Mario Gabelli's GAMCO Investors was buying during Q4 2012 and closed December with 1.8 million shares in its portfolio (see Gabelli's stock picks).
Cash transfer services company Western Union (WU) has a PEG ratio of 0.9 per Fidelity, and in this case the perception of undervaluation comes from the stock being cheap (10 times its trailing earnings) but the sell-side expecting that the recent decline in the company's business will reverse. We are a bit uncertain on that point, given how rapidly competing payment systems have been growing in the same environment and presumably grabbing market share. The dividend yield is just above 3%. Western Union is one of the largest holdings of John Shapiro's Chieftain Capital Management (find Chieftain's favorite stocks).
Another stock that manages to pay a decent yield and attract analyst optimism is contract offshore driller Ensco (ESV). At a market capitalization of $14 billion, the stock carries trailing and forward P/E multiples of 12 and 8, respectively, suggesting that it will be cheap if it hits analyst targets. Business has also been doing well, with revenue up 13% and earnings up 20% in the first quarter of 2013 versus a year earlier, and we'd say that it's worth taking a closer look. Greenlight Capital, managed by billionaire David Einhorn, had 3.8 million shares in its portfolio at the beginning of January (check out Einhorn's top picks).
Rounding out our list is $1.9 billion market cap biotechnology company Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR), whose primary drug is used to treat MS. This is another stock, which appears to be a good value in quantitative terms, as its trailing earnings multiple is 11. The sell-side is bullish, resulting in a low PEG ratio. However, net income was about flat in Questcor's most recent quarter compared with the same period in the previous year, so some caution is warranted in terms of this optimism. In addition, the most recent data shows that 60% of the float is held short showing that a number of market players are bearish.