Pandemic: The Return of H1N1

Just when you thought it was safe to take off that mask, the World Health Organization steps in and labels the swine flu a pandemic.

From the WSJ:

The World Health Organization declared an H1N1 flu pandemic Thursday — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years — as infections in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere climbed to nearly 30,000 cases.

The long-awaited pandemic announcement is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe. WHO will now ask drugmakers to speed up production of an H1N1 flu vaccine. The declaration will also prompt governments to devote more money toward efforts to contain the virus.

WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan made the announcement Thursday after the U.N. agency held an emergency meeting with flu experts. Dr. Chan said she was moving the world to phase 6 — the agency’s highest alert level — which means a pandemic, or global epidemic, is under way.

“The world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century,” Dr. Chan told reporters. “The (H1N1 flu) virus is now unstoppable.”

On Thursday, WHO said 74 countries had reported 28,774 cases of H1N1 flu, including 144 deaths. Chan described the virus as “moderate.” According to WHO’s pandemic criteria, a global outbreak has begun when a new flu virus begins spreading in two world regions.

The agency has stressed that most cases are mild and require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities — especially in poorer countries.

Still, about half of the people who have died from H1N1 flu were previously young and healthy — people who are not usually susceptible to flu. H1N1 flu is also crowding out regular flu viruses. Both features are typical of pandemic flu viruses.

If you’re like me you probably thought this was over and done with. We’ll have to see how this plays out but it probably will take a bite out of economic recovery.

And by the way, start washing your hands again.

Comments

[TLassen:]

WHO declares it a pandemic due to the spread of the disease, not the severity of the disease.
It's a non-story for investors.

Jun 11 03:54 PM

[Shadow Banker:]

I disagree with TLassen. It may not mutate and become as devastating as many are predicting, but it will certainly incite fear in the general public that will affect the market. Profits will be hurt from anything that relies on a high volume of people (cruise lines, airlines, amusement parks, etc). Pharmas will gain.

Read up on the panic that this caused last time around:

www.salon.com/env/feat.../

Jun 11 04:03 PM

[old boat guy:]

Hey, wake up. This is a divergence. This "epidemic" is like a little cold. The gov't is using it to draw attention from what is happening--to make it look responsive to a non-issue. HELLO.

Jun 11 04:18 PM

[David White:]

According to the W.H.O. reports swine flu outbreaks are growing quickly in Chile and to a lesser extent Australia. Since both of these countries are in the Southern Hemisphere, they are just about to enter their winter season (flu season). The dangers for them are much higher than for the countries in the Northern Hemisphere, which are about to enter summer. We will have to see what develops. Likely the US will have bigger problems with swine flu come fall. I think I will get the vaccine, when it is available in the fall. You guys can scoff if you want to. I am old enough to remember the Hong Kong flu. It didn't seem that that many people died, but those that got it sure wished they hadn't. I have gotten one or two of the bad ones. It is definitely something I would like to avoid.

Jun 11 05:15 PM

[RiskReturnO...:]

Just when I though XLV was going to be dead money now that we didn't have the sell-off many expected in May, it's showing some signs of relative strength ... not sure if its tied to Swine, but something to consider if this picks up momentum.

Jun 11 05:23 PM

[conceptwizard:]

Good time to Short Pork.

Jun 11 05:59 PM

[cynewulf:]

Traveling salesman, farmer, pig, all sitting at the dining room table. Pig has a wooden leg. Farmer to saleman " when you have a pig this special ,you just don't eat him, all at once".-----What else could the W.H.O. do? It is how they roll. It's got something to do with the lightening rod salesman ,scaring everyone.

Jun 11 06:13 PM

[vloscomp:]

TLassen is correct. The epidemiology define pandemic as the spread from one infected patient to more than one person in the population. While the seriousness of the disease is not included in the definition, a pandemice does have a psychological and economical effects to society; for example, the WHO has just made a ripple in anyone that reads the headline.

Jun 11 06:38 PM

[Rollerball:]

Should be called WOLF (World Health Organizing Fear). They give a great band a bad name. Great joke Cynewolf. The pork short has been played. I'd go long casket makers.

Jun 11 07:05 PM

[TLassen:]

thanks

the point is savvy investors don't read headilnes, we read between the lines.


On Jun 11 06:38 PM vloscomp wrote:

> TLassen is correct. The epidemiology define pandemic as the spread
> from one infected patient to more than one person in the population.
> While the seriousness of the disease is not included in the definition,
> a pandemice does have a psychological and economical effects to society;
> for example, the WHO has just made a ripple in anyone that reads
> the headline.

Jun 11 07:11 PM

[hook:]

I had the sniffles last week but the market help up ok. I don't see the correlation

Jun 11 07:35 PM

[Erik B.:]

Political play for more monies to flow to the W.H.O. Like any organization, sound like they are trying to justify their existence.

Jun 11 10:24 PM

[mac123449:]

'''''''Not a peep yet from U.S. mainstream media, but Italian authorities have detained 2 Japanese nationals who were attempting to cross into Switzerland with $134.5 BILLION in U.S. Government Bonds… hidden in a false-bottomed briefcase. This is HUGE news. PDF of the Italian Government’s news release is here, with more pictures.'''''

rightsoup.com/

Jun 11 11:45 PM

[mac123449:]

Want to get REALLY conspiratorial? On March 30th, the Wall Street Journal said this…notice the number in bold.

Treasury Has $134.5 Billion Left in TARP MARCH 30, 2009
now notice the number being smuggled into switzerland 134.5 billion man that freaked me out when i realized it someones up to somethin ie japanese government getting us back for WW2

The Treasury Department said it has about $134.5 billion left in its financial-rescue fund, giving the Obama administration a cushion as it implements expensive programs aimed at unlocking credit markets and boosting ailing industries.

Story from WSJ confirmed;

online.wsj.com/article...

Jun 12 12:22 AM

[Eagle-Chief:]

(Big) Mac-123449 - thanks 4 the awesome information ! You know that both the Fed and the U.S. treasury have been silent as to where most of these TARP & STIMULUS funds have gone.

FYI readers - $ 134 Billion is $134 Million X 1000. Mindboggling.

On the article, these SWINES are doing everything to derail the U.S. and global economy. This S1N1 stuff is hog-wash!

Jun 12 12:57 AM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

The flu kills hundreds of thousands a year. Any addition is a cause for concern, especially if it never goes away. The WHO is justified in keeping this a going concern.

Even if no one profits off of it or it doesn't impact the stock market doesn't mean it is junk. It's not a financial matter, it's health issue.

Jun 12 05:11 AM

[Whippet:]

You and TLassen are right on. The story was on page 4 of BioWorld Today, a biotech (read: vaccines) industry newspaper, for pete's sake. It's a numbers definition, not a virulence one. It is of concern because human immunity to this particular strain is low on an aggregate level- any shift to greater virulence could have enormous morbidity and mortality effects. We need to watch it carefully and prepare vaccine countermeasures, but there is no cause for alarm.
I would argue this layer of the story has already been priced into the markets. A pop in virulence would create true panic.


On Jun 11 06:38 PM vloscomp wrote:

> TLassen is correct. The epidemiology define pandemic as the spread
> from one infected patient to more than one person in the population.
> While the seriousness of the disease is not included in the definition,
> a pandemice does have a psychological and economical effects to society;
> for example, the WHO has just made a ripple in anyone that reads
> the headline.

Jun 12 09:39 AM

[YoYoMama:]

Actually, it made the news here in Texas. However, it's no longer front page news, as it appears the outbreak here has quelled. The story was hidden on Page 2 of the Houston Chronicle.

Look, we have 36,000 deaths EVERY year in the U.S. as a result of good old standard flu. No one gets their knickers in a twist over that statistic. Compare that with 27 deaths from swine flu so far in 2009 - www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/up....

Looks like the common flu is more of a threat.


On Jun 11 11:45 PM mac123449 wrote:

> '''''''Not a peep yet from U.S. mainstream media, but Italian authorities
> have detained 2 Japanese nationals who were attempting to cross into
> Switzerland with $134.5 BILLION in U.S. Government Bonds… hidden
> in a false-bottomed briefcase. This is HUGE news. PDF of the Italian
> Government’s news release is here, with more pictures.'''''
>
> rightsoup.com/

Jun 12 10:14 AM

[chleoku:]

Yes, there is going to be a more serious second outbreak on H1N1, which would become our one of the top 10 worries on blocking the econmic recovery:

www.wealthalchemist.co.../

Jun 13 06:09 AM