Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets 19 comments
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<< Return to page 1 - Bulls Awash in Liquidity
With little in the way of volume, bulls were able to prop things higher just as Larry Levin stated in his blunt statement from the CNBC video. Bulls have a lot going for them in terms of liquidity, and that’s what this current rally is based on: Printed money routed to trading desks to play with for fun and profit. It’s good to be a Primary Dealer for the Fed.
Yes, there is always end-of-quarter tape painting going on and the SEC, which prohibits such activities, has never done anything about it. They’re too busy trying to prevent you from trading leveraged ETFs.
This will be a key week despite the low volume and shortened trading. On Thursday we get a lot of important data, especially with the employment report. It’s amazing it’s being released on Thursday before the market closes for the holiday. I can’t imagine traders heading to the Hamptons early with this kind of news. Cynically, many believe the report will be bad, allowing traders a long weekend to spin it another way.
Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: MDY, IWM, QQQQ, QLD, BWX, WIP, LQD, DBC, USL, XLE, DBB, EWJ, EWA, EFA, EEM, AFK and FXI.
The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.
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This article has 19 comments:
Everyone remember the troops this holiday. Freedom isn't free.
Given his trach record, be very afraid.
www.cnbc.com/id/158402...
As I have maintained for some time, what most bothers me about CNBC in USA (Europe and Asia CNBC have useful interviews often) is not only their chronic cheerleading, but their being loudest when we should be most cautious. They only time they're not bullish, is when you should be (e.g., near bottoms in 2002 and 2009).
As I have said many times:
CNBC will tell you what you want to hear, help you protect your money............AFTER the market falls 40% and after they yell buy buy buy all the way down from DOW 14K 13K 12K 11K 10K 9K 8K, etc.
It's called zero accountability, and no integrity.
I particularly enjoyed the part where they played a men at work song "land downunder" whilst showing a group of walruses playing the trumpet!
Yes folks we are the land of trumpet playing walruses, which may be fine if a walrus was Australian, which i might add i have NEVER SEEN in Australia, because they are NOT AUSTRALIAN........... YOU CNBC IDIOTS!, wake up!!
I have never even met a fellow Australian that plays the trumpet either BTW.
It make sperfect sense though in the context that CNBC promotes the market rally as everything is now fine and "mandy/dandy".
Just shows how out of touch with reality the CNBC buffoons are.
On Jun 30 07:42 AM basehitz wrote:
> On 6/25, CNBC's Dennis Kneale declared "Recession Is Over".
> Given his trach record, be very afraid.
> www.cnbc.com/id/158402...;play=1
>
> As I have maintained for some time, what most bothers me about CNBC
> in USA (Europe and Asia CNBC have useful interviews often) is not
> only their chronic cheerleading, but their being loudest when we
> should be most cautious. They only time they're not bullish, is when
> you should be (e.g., near bottoms in 2002 and 2009).
>
On Jun 30 09:10 AM Maxe Paul wrote:
> Did you like the way CNBC imported our Aussie lass and CNBC's best
> talent (code for best looking!) Amanda "Mandy" Drurie? CNBC is hoping
> the Aussie markets success may rub off with "Mandy" doing her stuff,
> and guess what, the market rallied LOL.
>
> I particularly enjoyed the part where they played a men at work song
> "land downunder" whilst showing a group of walruses playing the trumpet!
>
>
> Yes folks we are the land of trumpet playing walruses, which may
> be fine if a walrus was Australian, which i might add i have NEVER
> SEEN in Australia, because they are NOT AUSTRALIAN........... YOU
> CNBC IDIOTS!, wake up!!
>
> I have never even met a fellow Australian that plays the trumpet
> either BTW.
>
> It make sperfect sense though in the context that CNBC promotes the
> market rally as everything is now fine and "mandy/dandy".
>
> Just shows how out of touch with reality the CNBC buffoons are.<br/>
It's hard to argue with the market manipluation theme. The gov't is providing money to banks who are funneling it to the trading desks. Seems the banks are using the money to trade and make money which obviously helps their bottom line and ability to pay back TARP so the executives can get back to their uncontrolled salaries and bonuses. I don't see the green shoots and still have no clue what the underlying fundamentals are. No administration wants the market to fall on their watch so they take extraordinary actions to keep it from plunging.
Bloomberg's site has been featuring so much BS spin lately on news I've lost confidence in them. (Their continued happy talk headlines are annoying coupled with the BS they put out on PE levels).
The bottom line is both receive their ad revenues (plus Fox) from companies with product to sell so the inherent bullish conflict is always present.
The blogosphere is honest for the most part and remains the most reliable source of information.
Does anyone else read it this way..............?
Always apprecaite your comments and charts. Since you discussed bonds, could you from time to time present your comments on either JNK or HYG? I've been adding these to my portfolio and would appreciate your insights on their trends.
Have a happy 4th.
On Jun 30 11:39 AM me3tv wrote:
> I judge when to buy and sell on CNBC by the percentage of white teeth
> shown per minute of stock discussion. The more smiles (more teeth)
> the more excited - the more bullish is CNBC and the more cautious
> our even bearish you should be. Peak teeth is an obvious bear signal.
> Least teeth cycle -- become bullish.
I always appreciate your work. In your chart of WIP you noted: "Are WIPs better than TIPs? Some must think so." There is a big tax difference between the two. Phantom income.
The drawback to holding TIPs in a taxable account is that they generate "phanton income." The principal value is adjusted annually to reflect inflation, and you're forced to pay taxes on the increase - even though you don't actually receive the money until you sell the bond or it matures. iShares will send you a 1099 that calculates your phantom income each year but TIP remains best for QUALIFIED ACCOUNTS only.
WIPs are somewhat different. The monthly distributions made by WIP include the coupon interest accrual and the CPI adjustment on the principal. The fund is able to pay this out by selling a very small
portion of the portfolio every month that there is a positive CPI
adjustment. Since the CPI adjustment is paid out every month, from a tax standpoint, there is no "phantom income" realized by the shareholder.
Hope this helps.
Fox is made up of people not smart enough for Bloomberg, or not good looking enough for CNBC.
That leaves only ill informed not very good looking people to run the show........THATS SCARY.
PS, Rupert, i think you could still fit another 50 tickers on the screen if you shrunk the (not good looking or smart) presenters a bit!
On Jun 30 10:08 AM BPYHO wrote:
> You know I hate Fox news but I have to admit they have the best business
> commentary (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
Technicals for both JNK and HYG are flashing "Strong Sell". I'd bail out of these and stash the cash for a few months to see which way the world economy and inflation are going.