Some Thoughts on Jim Cramer (aka Mr. Market)

Jim Cramer just announced that housing has bottomed. Now, while I personally hope that he is correct, my gut instinct is to say 'look out below!'... at least when it comes to real dollar stabilization. Though, as I just said, nothing would thrill me more than to have real estate prices shoot though the roof.

Historically, our 'friendemy' Jim (who I love to hate), has been really good at... well, not timing the markets very well. For example, in the edition of The Intelligent Investor with commentary by Jason Zwieg, Cramer trumpets that the 'old economy' stocks and 'value metrics' are dead. Later, he says that you should be fully invested in tech (and pokes fun at Buffett over not drinking the tech Kool-Aid). A person that would have taken his advice would have seen their holdings precipitously fall by well over 90% in price. As I have said before, who can blame them for getting caught up in the bubble if they had no understanding of price and value?

Cramer also was good at saying 'Bear Sterns is fine', while he may now say that it was in reference to deposits (which, I still think is him twisting some vague wording); Jon Stewart, of all people, did a good job of schooling him. I enjoy how Cramer said towards the end of the video 'anytime that you recommend a stock that goes down, you've made a mistake...' well, maybe not. Practically speaking, market fluctuations have nothing to do with the underlying value of a company. Let alone what the market will send the price of the security to, after it has fallen.

Certainly, Cramer may be right in his housing prediction in nominal dollars, but, where I have my doubts are in real dollars; I have long said that I think the Federal Reserve is trying to print enough money to raise the price of everything, so that prices as a whole can catch up with the inflated cost of housing.

While I certainly hope that olde' Jimmy boy is right (both in real and nominal dollars), I generally feel safer doing the opposite of what he says. To me, Jim Cramer is the epitome of Mr. Market. Don't get me wrong, this truly is a great thing for us. While I have little regard for the guy, I certainly appreciate that he has attempted to make the masses feel like they can invest on their own and trade their way to financial independence. In addition, we get to see him on TV after he drinks a few to many Red Bulls, goes nuts on the air, and adds to the manic depressive sentiment of the markets... making securities more attractive to buy/sell for us value investors.

Now that I think of it, maybe I should support the guy, by buying his books. I certainly don't want to see him go away.

Comments

[Egg:]

I've said this for the past two years and will continue to say it:

A new bull market will not start until Cramer is finally removed from the airwaves.

When he finally capitulates and takes his idiot self off the air...it's safe to buy (and hold).

Jun 12 03:38 AM

[I need a ba...:]

No one has a crystal ball. So Cramer (like all the other pundits) gets his share of right and wrong ... and admits it. Like him or hate him he is filling an entertainment time slot and gets a lot of press ... even the Donald likes him on The Apprentice. I think you might just be a bit jealous or Cramer's "success"?.

Jun 12 03:43 AM

[Advill:]

I do not think you have "gut experience" enough, frankly speaking, because your age for that is not yet there, Cramer as anybody else has rights and wrongs, in my opinion having so much exposure to TV and media is wrong because then you risks more mistakes.

WHat is in my opinion the best thing of Cramer?, well, i follow the guy through Miriam Metzinger (who does a beautifull compilation every day), and Cramer motivates me to see stocks that i could never otherwise evaluate , that generates in my particular case advantadges of "finding" companies and make in some investments ( GE, or IIF).

I heard what he says but i do my own analysis ...and the guy is interesting anyway.
Regards.

Jun 12 03:59 AM

[logicalthought:]

Watch Cramer for the funny lines and the insight into how a rapid trading hedge fund manager thinks (after all, those are the guys you're trading and investing against), and ignore all of the stock-specific investment advice, and you'll do fine.

Jun 12 07:08 AM

[fast track:]

Well, I think Jim Cramer does a fine job of keeping us informed! He is well informed and very intelligent.
As for being an investor on your own, which is what I am, and I have beaten most mutual funds and brokers returns in my 23 years of managing our money!
You certainly can do it on your own if you put in the time to keep yourself well informed and cut your losses before they become losses!
Why would anyone pay a broker to manage mutual funds such as many of the brokerage houses do?? You are already paying mutual fund managers!
Just subscribe to Morningstar and pick your own mutual funds! Why waste your money paying brokers to manage your mutual funds??

Jun 12 07:42 AM

[HerrKevin:]

Your jealousy of his success oozes from this article. Give it up- even if he gets some stuff wrong, he gets plenty of calls right. Since you haven't read his books, you are completely misinterpreting his advice and thoughts on the market. The reason so many people follow him is because, unlike most talking heads, he doesn't tell you to go do what he says. His whole deal is about researching independently and figuring out the market on your own! That's why people like him- he gives an introduction to the market that you can't get from other places. Sure he has the "lightning round" and all these other places where he just says buy and sell on stocks, but that's not a command to go do what he is saying. It is a suggestion to look into these stocks more and decide on your own. You can think of Cramer like a tour guide to the market, suggesting what places require a closer inspection. And you can listen to his advice, or you can just continue to be jealous of his success. If you're making money on the market then I guess it doesn't matter, but if you aren't, then it might be wise to stop being a baby.

Jun 12 08:10 AM

[TradingMaven:]

You're just another soap box quack poking fun at a someone you haven't really "invested" time in getting to know. Yes he is entertaining on the air (CNBC). But in order to see the true quality of his investment knowledge, you spend a little money on his advice.

I recently signed up for Action Alerts Plus and within 2.5 weeks made back my initial annual subscription. He provides emails on a daily basis that don't just indicate a buy or sell recommendation. He provides insight and analysis that would take the average investor too much time to accumulate. He also advises you when to buy on resistance and to keep a little cash on the sidelines during a down market when you can pick up a great value play or add to an existing position.

My portfolio is now free from speculative landmines and recommendations from "I wish I could call 'em like Cramer" columnists. It now contains positions in well-known, well-regarded organizations. The difference is, I now know when to buy and when to sell.

As of this writing, Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio for 2009 YTD is up 11.33%. The S&P is up 4.91%. Since inception of his portfolio (1/1/2002), the S&P is down 18.17%. Cramer's portfolio is only down 3.75%! He also donates the profits to charity.

How many individual investors or professionals for that matter, can look at their current portfolio and say their happy with their percentages? Anyone, anyone? Buehler, Buehler??

Please keep knocking Cramer. It only helps boost my portfolio!

Jun 12 08:43 AM

[t-bird:]

Cramer is a good source for some stock picks. Just use due diligence on acting on his selections.

His real estate acumen however leaves much to be desired. Mr. Cramer missed the housing bubble collapse in late '06 early '07 by more than nine months. I am a Realtor and real estate investor and by mid '06, I saw the crash coming. Mr. Cramer refused to announce the bubble had burst until the 4th qtr. of '07...

His prediction for the housing bottom on June 30, 2009 should likewise be taken with a healthy dose of reality and due diligence...

Jun 12 08:43 AM

[CES:]

I listened and SOLD on 1/8/2008 and saved a pile of money. Sold losers based on his advise. I should have sold earlier but even though I delayed after hearing his advise to sell I still saved a bundle. Sold AXP, GE, WB, and others.
You don't have to do what he says-that's up to you!

Jun 12 09:27 AM

[GNAPs Jim:]

Mr. Moore's article drips of disapproval of the general investor and highlights his own arrogance. Cramer is often wrong, but I doubt Mr. Moore is always right. The difference is, Cramer often accepts his mistakes, ala stickey notes on the forehead, etc., while Mr. Moore would likely never condescend to facing responsbility. I would like to see him walk a mile in Cramer's shoes...

Jun 12 09:28 AM

[scci:]

His show reminds me of the old Pee Wee Playhouse except without the intelligent insight.

Jun 12 09:53 AM

[Shade:]

Jim Cramer is human and not always right, but he does a tremendous service for individual investors like me. Thanks to Cramer, I've made some great stock picks and made good money, and I will always enjoy watching his show. Actually I'm glad there are people who don't see the value that Jim Cramer brings, because they are the ones losing money that I'm profiting from. Morons like Jeffrey Moore, the so-called author, look for an audience by sniping at others and bring no value whatsoever themselves. Give it a week and Jeffrey Moore will be Jeffrey Who. What a moron.

Rock on Jim Cramer!

Jun 12 10:18 AM

[Advexek:]

I am also an Action Alerts Plus subscriber and follow Cramer about 75%, as of June 1, I'm up 7.5% vs the S&P up 1.8%. If I followed Jim 100%, I'd be up even more. I agree, these guys are just jealous.


On Jun 12 08:43 AM TradingMaven wrote:

> You're just another soap box quack poking fun at a someone you haven't
> really "invested" time in getting to know. Yes he is entertaining
> on the air (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). But in order to
> see the true quality of his investment knowledge, you spend a little
> money on his advice.
>
> I recently signed up for Action Alerts Plus and within 2.5 weeks
> made back my initial annual subscription. He provides emails on
> a daily basis that don't just indicate a buy or sell recommendation.
> He provides insight and analysis that would take the average investor
> too much time to accumulate. He also advises you when to buy on
> resistance and to keep a little cash on the sidelines during a down
> market when you can pick up a great value play or add to an existing
> position.
>
> My portfolio is now free from speculative landmines and recommendations
> from "I wish I could call 'em like Cramer" columnists. It now contains
> positions in well-known, well-regarded organizations. The difference
> is, I now know when to buy and when to sell.
>
> As of this writing, Cramer's Action Alerts Plus portfolio for 2009
> YTD is up 11.33%. The S&P is up 4.91%. Since inception of his
> portfolio (1/1/2002), the S&P is down 18.17%. Cramer's portfolio
> is only down 3.75%! He also donates the profits to charity.
>
> How many individual investors or professionals for that matter, can
> look at their current portfolio and say their happy with their percentages?
> Anyone, anyone? Buehler, Buehler??
>
> Please keep knocking Cramer. It only helps boost my portfolio!

Jun 12 10:21 AM

[Shade:]

Buy and hold. Brilliant. Maybe you are still holding GM and AIG. The only thing you know about anything bullish is the bullchips between your ears.


On Jun 12 03:38 AM Egg wrote:

> I've said this for the past two years and will continue to say it:
>
>
> A new bull market will not start until Cramer is finally removed
> from the airwaves.
>
> When he finally capitulates and takes his idiot self off the air...it's
> safe to buy (and hold).

Jun 12 10:25 AM

[notsosmart:]

this is not hard.if you believe him(its your money) just do what he says.if you dont-dont watch.what a waste of time these cramer talks.i watch "family guy" instead.my income(yield )was 7.2% last year. paid no fees,read no books,avoided all the talking tv heads. 4 of my holdings just raised their divs.

Jun 12 10:40 AM

[Daryan:]

Well, you may not like the call if you will, but Jim is currently investing all kinds of capital in commercial and residential real estate all across the country. I know this to be fact, and we are talking millions of dollars. At the very least, he puts his own capital at risk while many that comment have absolutely no skin in the game whatsoever (see Roubini for one). Whether right or wrong, he's as genuine as it gets.

Jun 12 12:29 PM

[Fred Voetsch:]

Jim Cramer was clearly exposed as a criminal by Jon Stewart. Anyone who chooses to ignore reality deserves what they get.

Jun 12 01:55 PM

[veryold:]

"a criminal?"

Jun 12 03:06 PM

[TinyTim:]

While I have little regard for the guy, I certainly appreciate that he has attempted to make the masses feel like they can invest on their own and trade their way to financial independence


why appreciate -- in most cases it's criminal

Jun 12 08:14 PM

[Moldmaker 1:]

I like Cramer,but he has been wrong many times,I find him funny at times,but rediculous also. When he recommends a stock buy it that day,and sell it a day later!! But hey then again you dont have to watch him.I act on my own,am retired and have the time to do my own research.

Jun 13 12:14 PM