OceanFreight: Risky, But Deserving of Consideration 119 comments
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Recently, I have been looking to add some small positions in stocks that would excel during an economic recovery. Unfortunately, after a quick search of these types of stocks, it's easy to see that their valuations have risen through the roof as of late, with not much changing on the fundamental side.
From shipping to commodities to business services, it's becoming much harder to find value, especially with the recent market rally. Fortunately, I think I've found a company, who although extremely risky, might be able to find a place in the 'speculation' section of many investors portfolios.
OceanFreight (OCNF) belongs to the volatile shipping industry. Officially,
OceanFreight Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides shipping transportation services. It specializes in transporting drybulk cargoes, including iron ore, coal, grain, and other materials, as well as crude oil cargoes through the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers and tanker vessels. - Yahoo! Finance
As you can imagine, shipping companies have been killed with the global recession, but as of late, many of them have seen huge rebounds, some as large as 100%. Although OCNF has seen a partial life, their valuations are still too dirt cheap to ignore.
Sitting at about $1.70, OCNF seems to be a risky penny stock, but that was not so as of just a few months ago. As late as last summer, OceanFreight boasted a market cap of almost $2 Billion (knocked down to a measly $151 million). Here are some quick stats to consider:
- $11.77 book value (.13x)
- Long term contracts (some of which extend until 2016)
- 80% of 2009 backlogged (as well as almost 50% in 2010)
- 13% insider ownership
- 1.52 EPS (P/E of 1.16)
About the only problem that is plaguing the company, besides the economy, is their gigantic debt load ($300 million vs market cap vs $151 market cap). This is not as bad as it sounds however. Most shipping companies have large debt loads, and OCNF was never planned on being permanent. Their capital expenditures have accounted for most of the debt load, and now that they have slowed, they can use the cash flow to pay off the debt.
They have also shown the ability to raise capital, offering almost $100 million in shares. Although this extremely diluted existing shareholders, it is a positive for anybody recently looking to get into the stock. The share offering now gives them a large amount of cash to not only cover debt obligations, but also to upgrade their fleet at a discount due to the economic environment.
Recently, management has shown extreme savvy, selling a 1996 built Panamax, 73,040 dwt to a third party for a gross price of $21.95 million. Meanwhile, they purchased a larger, much newer 2001 built Panamax, 74,716 dwt from a third party for a gross price of $25 million. Management is showing they are still in the game, and are using their credit facilities to create maximum shareholder value.
If you think that a rebound will come in the next few years, OCNF is possibly the best value play in the shipping sector. Take a look at this chart from their annual report comparing fundamentals and financial strength.
click to enlarge
Although risky, OCNF definitely deserves consideration.
Disclosure: Author holds no positions in any security mentioned at this time, but retains the right to purchase in the future.
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This article has 119 comments:
But (1) shippers are already in recovery (see Baltic Dry Index at investmenttools.com/fu... ); (2) watch what is done with (juicy) dividends (Are they being cancelled?); and (3) look at a 3-year price chart.
Based on fundamentals, I chose Navios Maritime Partners L.P. (NMM). Shares hit lows in November and now trade 30% below levels of June 2008. At $10/share, NMM yields 16% and there would be no reason to reduce it based on cash on hand and cash flow.
George Soros owns a lot of NMM shares. Greeks know Greeks. I recommend NMM. It gets the Motley Fool community's highest (5-star) rating. Reuters also rates it highest (Outperform) and FirstCall gives it a "Buy". With a reasonable appreciation of 35%, plus the dividend, there's +50% upside and very little risk.
Certainly less risk than OceanFreight (OCNF). Reuters doesn't even cover it. Only 2 analysts cover it. None rate it a Buy.
In this segment, stick with proven winners.
Dave
Thanks for the info, Ryan. The backlogs are particularly telling.
Current Book Value:
Stockholders equity $255M (from Q1 report)
They raised $105M in new equity in Q2 ($111M raised in total $6M in Q1, $105M in Q2)
Total current stockholder's equity (SHE) = $255 + $105 = $360M.
"The total number of shares issued and outstanding is 90,394,493 as of May 19, 2009." - From Q1 report
Bookvalue per share = SHE / #shares = $360/90.394M = $3.98
For similar reasons, the PE is around 15.
messages.finance.yahoo...
On Jun 14 02:36 PM HerrHansa wrote:
> One issue with Ocean Freight Inc (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> is their fleet age, which is a bit more than some of their competitors.
> That could make it tough to sell ships to generate revenues, or to
> cover debt load. While that aspect was part of their business model
> from the beginning, it was an aspect that made sense in 2006 and
> 2007, but looks strained going forward. Sure, the stock might go
> up in sympathy with other shippers, but I don't see this as a good
> longer investment.
WHAT EVER UNCLE DOES , HE FOLLOWS
BE CAREFUL AND DONT INVEST WITH CROOKS
DSX EGLE AND NM ARE BETTER ANME IN THE SECTOR
mister economou ( dryship ceo) is really a thieft
i had and i sold for desperation drys
he did so awfull thing last six month for stockholders i'm asking i'm asking why he still alive
how he could survive to all th maledictions
ocnf?
same thing
dont say to me that raise 100 M ( what's what? 4 Panamax value?)
whit ten times dilution is somenthing good for share holders
this is good for some istitutionals and even for the ceo not realy for me share holder
i still have position in the company because i bought around 15 so whit 90 % less i think i could risk the last 10%
my advice is dont play economou nephew nor him
two pirates
really much better play is navios holdings nm ( great company) whit very clever management
reallly i loved horamar aquisition ( wonderful shot)
and excel exm too i even whit his monster debt is very good company plenty of upside room
so much better then ocnf i believe sblk prgn and free
loving the space i have position in all that companies
especially free i think have still room on the upside whit her specialized fleet
see you guys
and sorry for my awfull english
stefano
stefano: Agreed, the major dilution was unnecessary, but if they put it to good use in this down environment, that could change everything. Increasing management salaries....well....th... a whole different story.
MOSCaptial
Please don't think every person will follow their uncles behavior.
You make it sounds like you know that family so well that you had dinner with them frequently.
Maybe you are the one trying to scare or freighen people here.
Nobody knows who you are, and why you know so much about that Nephew. Please explain.
Just look at their previous Dividends, very very good and on time.
For some people here to talk bad about OCNF is a disgrace, and bias.
Maybe with an agenda too.
Investors should watch out for these kind of talks.
Do your own research, and not let others manipulate your decisions.
That's important.
you are gambling.
1. The Emerging Mks (as evidenced by Bloomberg statistics in the link I posted below) ARE THE FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.
2. Much of the Biz with the U.S. and Europe will be largely replaced: by giant scale growth in the emerging mkts, LED BY CHINA, and including India, Brazil, South Africa, and many others.
3. The "temporary" drop in OCEAN FRT CARRIERS tonnage/rates will undergo a rapid resurgence TO HANDLE THE GIANT AND RAPID GROWTH in the Emerging Markets. It's ALREADY STARTED...
Regardless of how the economies and stock mkts of the U.S. and Europe LANGUISH...those in much of ASIA and other major countries WILL MORE THAN TAKE UP THE SLACK...remember most of growth in U.S. AND Europe for many years has been more of EXPANSION on an ALREADY WELL DEVELOPED BASE...the growth in the emerging mkts is largely NEW and is MUCH BIGGER...(look at pictures of China...from bicycles and shantytowns to MULTI-LANE HWYS, AND TOWNHOUSES, etc.)
China already has a Mag-Lev fully automated train running to and from Shanghai...for years...DO WE HAVE EVEN A HIGH-SPEED TRAINS, let alone a MAG-LEV???
...getting the picture
The development in the "emerging mkts" is already underway...THEY WON'T BE ABLE TO BUILD THE SHIPS FAST ENOUGH!!! (see 2nd link)
the growth WILL BE FAR GREATER than ALL THE CAPACITY we were using before the current economic downturn.
the problem (for US/EUROPE) ...the short-sighted leaders/analysts DID NOT SEE THIS COMING...
but most MULTINATIONALS are scrambling to be involved in the huge growth in CHINA...they know where the future is...
as does Vikram Pandit the CEO of Citibank...he echoed and Citi is planning a big recovery in Citibank, but based on operations/revs in EMERGING MKTS...(watched econ roundtable in Chigago recently, Pandit was a main speaker along with Jack Welch, former Ceo of GE.)
so EMERGING MKTS ARE THE FUTURE...and a GREAT FUTURE for the OCEAN FREIGHT CARRIERS who will supply the raw materials for this growth... (more than enough to makeup for the loss tonnage to the U.S. and Europe....)
so if any Ocean Carrier is issuing more stock to BUY MORE SHIPS to be part of this great future...I say more power to them...good move...
...you'll make plenty of money for you and shareholders, and grow OCNF into a GIANT.
Ocnf stock by the way is CHEAP...you'll be crying as it crosses 6 on the way up higher...
but then most of the U.S. loser pundits and anal-list, will have you wasting your time reading their analysis of why the Baltic Dry Index can't sustain this BIG TREND UP...what I say to them:
IT'S THE "EMERGING MARKETS" stupids...stop focusing on drops in tonnage and revs based on declining statistics about the U.S. AND Europe...you're probably right there...the U.S. AND EUROPE tonnage WILL PROBABLY BE DOWN...
...but the SLACK AND THAN-SOME WILL BE more than made up by the tonnage/rate increases of the EMERGING MKTS!
now, if that ain't clear to you, why don't you
get one of those "Investing for Dummies" books, or better yet
CO-AUTHOR ONE "Investing BY Dummies" along with your U.S. and European analysts and friends...who can't imagine the U.S. AND EUROPE are being "passed by and eclipsed!"
flashrob
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
seekingalpha.com/artic...
well try this...China is building cities/economies to equal - and the intent - surpass the West!
here's just one of many...and I bet you never heard the name or knew it existed...peruse it's website and get some idea of the MASSIVE DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA...and why THEY ARE NOT JUST STOCKILING COMMODITIES to built an inventory while the prices are low...
CHINA WILL CONTINUE TO "IMPORT COMMODITIES" MASSIVELY" ...they are
trying to MAKEOVER CHINA to rival and surpass the U.S...
and if you look at the example of this city...and I'll probably post some more later...like ones built with skyscrapers and super-hwys from farmland to million people living in them...like in central China...(and you never heard of it...and obviously the "stupids" on Wall St. and their spinners never did either....)
2003.dl.gov.cn/i18n/en......
so take a look...THE FUTURE OF BIG GROWTH...and BIG COMMODITY IMPORT...AND BIG "OCEAN FREIGHT TRANSPORT" is because of these
BIG NEW CITIES IN CHINA...
they are not just stockpiling steel...they are USING IT and they can't get enough, fast enough.
see just one of these cities at this link:
2003.dl.gov.cn/i18n/en...
flashrob
but to get back to the subject of China:
I forgot to mention the city, in central China that they built on farmland, including expressways...they DID IT IN "FIVE YEARS!"
...now, I previously indicated the worldwide tonnage of Ocean Freight Carriers, that a big chunk of was being used by the U.S./Europe (which are now languishing in recession) was MAINLY BEING USED TO SUPPORT COUNTRIES/CULTURES (mostly in the West) that were already well developed...in other words, the stuff being shipped was for well-developed cites that were just GROWING BY A SMALL PERCENTAGE...
ON THE OTHER HAND in CHINA...a HUGE CHUNK OF THEIR GROWTH will be in basically ENTIRE "NEW CITIES" AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CENTERS...
think New York City existed in frontier days...compare it's growth - though great - WITH THE GIGANTIC GROWTH OF "EVERYTHING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI...as the U.S. WEST was developed...
so what the Chinese are essentially doing is:
BUILDING THE EQUIVALENT OF A: DENVER, PHOENIX, LOS ANGELES, SEATTLE, PORTLAND, LAS VEGAS, etc....
...and doing it ALL IN JUST A FEW YEARS...
THEY ARE SPENDING OUR U.S. DOLLARS (because they know they are going to tank because we are printing mostly in the bailout pkgs...)TO GET SOME VALUE OUT OF THEM while they are still worth something...
and building up a giant U.S. LIKE SKYCRAPERED CONSUMER ECONOMY TO REPLACE US...
...this is not JUST a temp "get commods at cheap prices"...
this will go on indefinately for years and get bigger ...so the BALTIC DRY INDEX will keep going up and up...
because they won't be able to DELIVER NEW SHIPS fast enough to keep pace with THE DEMAND IN CHINA ALONE ...let alone...other "emerging econs" like India, Brazil, So. Africa, etc.
get the picture...OCEAN FRT CARRIERS will be one of the BIGGEST BENEFICIARIES OF ALL THIS...
regardless of the U.S. AND European economies/stock mkts...tanking or staying in the doldrums...
no matter what...CHINA AND OCEAN FRT CARRIERS will GROW TERRIFICALLY!
FLASHROB
Very well said.
the BDI dipped in Apr...so analysts started spinning an abatement in Chinese imports... well they WERE WRONG...
it was just temporary...of course there is a decrease and increase in the BDI ...just like every other stock or index...but it's the OVERALL TREND that counts...
here's India exporting more in May...after the dip in Apr...
like I told you: IT'S CHINA... and it ain't gonna stop...
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
flashrob
Have you noticed that many analysts are saying bad things about some ships.
And many people try to do the same here.
Whatever the purpose, OCNF is the deal of a life time.
Shares now cheaper than a cup of coffee.
Just grab whatever shares you can afford.
OCNF will reward its shareholders with excellent dividends when economy returns to normal again.
Look at their past record, you will find that OCNF is the best shipping company anyone can trust.
Listen to yourself, Not others.
EMERGING MKTS is where the money is going...
...so those mkts, where much building of infrastructure, like "whole new cities and industrial centers" in China, and other emerging mkts, will more than make up for the downturn in U.S. AND EUROPEAN ocean frt shipping.
spells, good SOLID/STEAD GAINS for the "ocean frt carriers!"
go...OCNF! gonna be UP, UP...UP! ...and much sooner than any recovery in the U.S. AND EUROPE!
read the details on this link:
finance.yahoo.com/reti...
flashrob
I EXPECTED SOMETHING LIKE THIS:
quick take: OPERATING PROFIT ..."BETTER THAN 50%!"
I try to give a detailed post before too long...surely tonight...
I have some NUMBERS...
remember the "f'n BDI can go into the tank like it did last Dec when the "daily rate" for companies that depend on the "daily fluctuating price...like DRYSHIPS...BUT NOT OCNF...GOT HIT HARD...
DAILY RATE DROPPED BELOW 3000. well below estimated average operating cost of 6500 per day...
got it...OCNF profits BIG regardless of BDI
that's the way it looks to me...
go OCNF...already moving UP after hours...should be a gap UP tommorow...
and with the US AND EUROPE in the doldrums...SMART INVESTORS ARE GONNA WANT A PIECE of a "sure thing!"
more later...BUT LOOKIN' "VERY GOOD!"
FLASHROB
I see and recognize future prospects very quickly...BUT IT TAKES THE "MASS MKT" WEEKS in many cases...
so, I don't worry...can't do nothing much about "lag time."
...if you wait for the "analyst' to spell this out to you...OCNF great propsects...going forward...the STOCK WILL ALREADY BE RAMPING UP RAPIDLY...and you lose most of the numerical advantage in buying it...THAT'S WHAT MOST PEOPLE DO...they got to have "their analyst." Well, I'm sure HE LOADED UP before he gave you his take... THAT'S HOW IT WORKS...so I don't expect a big move for days/weeks...BUT IT IS INEVITABLE...
...the BDI is a daily index of average frt rates compiled daily...somewhat like the DOW JONES INDEX...
if you use the Dryships model YOU ARE BETTING ON THE DAILY UPS/DOWNS OF THE BDI to determine it's future prospects...
if you use the Ocnf model YOU ARE ESSENTIALY BUYING "AAA BONDS" and FIXING YOUR PROFIT...despite fluctuations in the "INDEX AVERAGE!"
with the downturn in the world economy HIGHLY LEVERAGED DERIVATIVES have proven to be the LOSS LEADER in the current economic worldwide environment.
It appears OCNF will continue using a stragegy of more guaranteed modest gains...BUT THEY ARE QUITE LARGE even with this strategy.
the "herd" often dictates (and unjustifiably in many cases) the prices of stocks, etc. by "their panic" up or down. The bondholder in a "good company" has little to worry about, by comparison. He gets a "fixed return" regardless of "herd panic!"
This is IN THE BAG with respect to OCNF...I'll detail it over the next few days...I can see MOST are slow in getting my analysis...so I'll have to slow it down...and explain piecemeal. I WAS CONCERNED ..."until NOW!"
now, that I have a better grasp of the company and their stragegy...I SEE A FLIGHT INTO OCNF...similar to people buying the YEN in "risk adverse panic!"
notice the moves in the YEN, DOLLAR, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR...
up/down/up/down...because NOBODY is certain of the future. IS THE ECONOMY RECOVERING OR NOT!
Ocnf, in this kind of mkt APPEARS TO ME TO BE PLAYING IT SAFE modeling themself after the "bond model" in guaranteeing their revs and future.
U.S. treasuries, the number one safe haven...
'til now...and the YEN...are shaky.
I believe BIG MONEY will be chasing VERY SECURE, investments for some time.
and I THINK THE RETURNS OF OCNF will generate a FAR BIGGER RETURN than any BOND issues...AND with even more security...
remember guaranteed income...despite economic fluctuations...
also, price of OIL likely to continue to DECLINE...big component in "vessel fuel." So, operating expenses due to fuel cost will decline...making it even better for all ocean transport carriers.
but the "bdi based contract carriers" like DRYS will have it more difficult to secure investors...because of "herd panic." ...whereas OCNF will have people chasing the "stock up" ...soon as the ANALYSTS give their approval...
watch for a "slew of UPGRADES" if you DON'T MIND "MISSING THE BOAT!"
I'm in EARLY as usual to REAP THE BIG PART OF THE PROFIT!
flashrob
finance.yahoo.com/news...=
EMERGING MKT GROWTH ... will more than makeup for declines in the WEST.
...and this is good news for OCNF and most of the other Ocean Frt Carriers as well...
Ocnf is rushing to buy ships to FILL THIS NEED...
OCNF mgmt knows what's coming - A BIG RECOVERY DEMAND IN OCEAN FRT - mainly fueled by China growth due to their stimulus pkg, mostly for now...but as they replace the declining world mkts for their goods, with their OWN CONSUMER ECONOMY!
OCNF gonna get a BIG SLICE OF THIS PIE!
flashrob
i think the reason might be the 8.5:1 dilution of the stock if that happens in near future to raise capital who will better off??
if you bought at $1.25 or if you wait and buy after price correction?
will the money be used correctly without waste never.just imagine if you borrow money for yourself will you waste a little ??maybe
if the money will be used 75% correct we still need to see the price drop below $1 to enter the stock
on the good side money borrowed now is worth alot more in the future if you buy anything with it in this case ships it will be worth a lot more and therefore good investment. he who borrows first makes most....last borrower will struggle with his debt and its usually the people .
does this make sense to you investors
a lot of their income is STILL COMING IN FROM long-term contracts WHEN THE RATES WERE HIGH before the Dec2008 drop in the BDI. At that time most ocean-frt carriers tanked as the BDI dropped way below the daily operating cost of running a vessel. The BDI at current levels above 3000 gives many carriers terrific returns.
So, whether you price your deals with a shipper by BDI daily fluctuating rates - Dryships does this - or you DO LONG TERM CONTRACTS (in my opinion this is the better way to go in shaky economic times) ...YOU MAKE PLENTY OF REVS EITHER WAY...to my way of thinking this biz is one of the "best things" in any mkt... very secure "with long term contracts" ...like "aaa corp bonds" but HAS A MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL RETURN...
I see this as one of the best investments in the world right now...far better than most world stocks AND BONDS...
great security...locked in rates in the case of OCNF...and increasing demand from the "emerging mkt" countries like China who will be ramping up development as U.S. and Europe continue to decline.
I don't see much "out there" to compare with this sector, and particularly OCNF ...that has this much potential.
Most world financial mkts and stocks are "range bound" ...up/down/up/down, in narrow trading ranges...sinces most are bets on U.S., EUROPEAN, JAPANESE recovery.
The real UP movers are in the EMERGING MKTS like China, and this is what most "western-centric" analysts are BLIND TOO! They focus too much on their stocks and mkts in the U.S., Europe, Japan, etc. AND DON'T SEE THAT emerging mkts like China STILL HAVE POSITIVE GDPS...even while WE in the WEST are in the doldrums...bouncing off the "bottom of the pool!"
flashrob
BUY BUY BUY.
finance.yahoo.com/spec...;_ylt=A0wNc9F34l1KCVYB...
flashrob
credit is tight...why pay high-interest loans in tight-credit times...when you can ISSUE SHARES to get the capital to BUY MORE SHIPS...
having the power to issue shares...IF YOUR GOING TO USE THE CAPITAL TO GROW THE COMPANY BIG-TIME is not a bad thing...ALMOST ALL THE COMPANIES LIKE MSFT AND DELL DID THIS...how do you think they GOT SO BIG.
also, anyone sitting on enough stock that equals or dwarfs the existing shareholders IS NOT GOING TO "RISK" DUMPING ON THE MKT AND TANKING IT...you don't kill the "goose that lays golden eggs!"
my thinking: the stock will have to hit about 10 before you see any serious profit selling by BIG INSIDERS...
so, I'M NOT WORRIED ABOUT STOCK DILUTION...as long as they USE THE CAPITAL TO KEEP EXPANDING THE CAPACITY OF THEIR FLEET.
looking for 5 with the emerging mkt demand that is ALREADY STARTED...looking for 10 AS RELATIVE VALUE against compariosn of LOW EARNINGS POTENTIAL for many U.S., EUROPEAN, AND JAPANESE STOCKS...
this is MORE SECURE THAT AAA CORP BONDS GOING FORWARD...
and will APPRECIATE MANY-FOLD...bdi is about 53k a day...so renewed contracts will be HIGH...
capesize cost is 6.5k a day...so look at the operating profit...it's GOING BACK UP TO HUGE!
FLASHROB
if you look at the "overall economy" it is understandable that "bank stocks" with their risky highly leveraged derivatives tanked to the tune of 95% - some of them - so,
many other good stocks in the mkt actually tanked better than 50%...and ARE NOW THE ONES RECOVERING from their OVERSOLD conditions...
reality is THE PRICE OF HOMES/CARS...
NO MORE THAN 50% DROP...so good stocks across the board should not be down more than 50% ...the price of houses and cars DID NOT DROP MORE THAN 50% ON AVERAGE WORLDWIDE...
so most companies should RECOVER THEIR STOCK PRICE TO ABOUT 50%....or better, since most acknowledge we hit bottom and are starting a SLOW RECOVERY...
the bdi just went up 7% yesterday, and 3% the day before...the daily rate is now above 53,000...THE COST OF OPERATING A CAPESIZE IS ABOUT 6,500 ...
do the arithmetic and use a some logic...
look at Apple stock price, which is representative of a good bounce back based on the above...and Ocnf has a lot better prospects for huge REV MARGINS by comparison...
as their contracts expire (and they didn't get tanked in the Dec08 rundown like dryships...which bases it's profits on "daily BDI" ...that's why ocnf had a good first qtr in the worse of times...now it just gets better with CHINA GDP over 7% ...
emerging mkt growth will MORE THAN ECLIPSE ANY DECLINES IN U.S. AND EUROPEAN GROWTH...
if Apple and other good stocks can resume better than 50% recovery...
THAN OCNF and the other ocean carriers WILL EASILY DO THIS...just needs analyst upgrades...which WILL BE COMING...and UP, UP...WE GO.
better start covering short...upgrades and you'll be standing their in shock...
FLASHROB
Ps ...just low volume daytrading UNTIL THE UPGRADES!
Can't really trust those people.
A few months ago, many analysts jumped on TCK, made it sounded like TCK was sinking like a rock. And TCK went down to below $4.00.
Look at TCK now, $20.00.
This is a good example of only trust yourself, and do your own research. It happened to many stocks. If you trust them, you shouldn't be playing stocks. Period.
OCNF also got a 5-star rating from the Motley Fools.
You should mention that also, just to be fair.
More analysts coverage don't mean it's better.
May bring more bias and confusions.
Make sure Soros still owns those shares you talked about.
Maybe he now owns some OCNF, never know !!
UP 3%
UP ANOTHER 7%
UP ANOTHER 5% YESTERDAY
from 3000 to 3500 in just 3 days....
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
getting the picture here... just a matter of time 'til the analyst notice (they are a bit slow) AND UPGRADE THE WHOLE OCEAN CARRIER SECTOR....
we're gonna run-UP fast...
it's all about VOLUME... big outside money will come in...notice the VOLUME IS picking up on OCNF...
finance.yahoo.com/q/hp...
yeah, we still got some back and forth...but the TREND IS UP...in price and volume...and with UPGRADES the volume increases are a sign of renewed interest by "big sideline money" ...pretty soon we start moving UP BIG TIME!
DON'T BE OUT FOR THE BIG AND STEADY MOVES "UP!"
emerging mkts gonna CARRY US UP...regardless of U.S. AND EUROPEAN MKTS...and since they're showing big pickup...how much more so for China, etc...
shouldn't sit at this level for too much longer...and UP, UP WE GO!!!
flashrob
mainly because I knew, any REAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY must INCLUDE "REAL ESTATE RECOVERY!"
...the numbers are surprisingly strong... and this is a sign to me that this is not just a HYPE RALLY...in U.S. mkts...
looks like will GET ANOTHER UP DAY ON MKTS...futures were down, but starting to reverse to positive...
well, it shouldn't be too long before we start seeing the UPGRADES in ocean carrier potential...the BDI is rocketing... the analysts can't ignore the math/numbers for too much longer...
it's INVEVITABLE...ocean carriers will GO UP FAST ...when they start putting out some media coverage...
it's all about INCREASING VOLUME...then we should go up quick and big...
here's the "housing report!"
finance.yahoo.com/news...=
flashrob
this is a version of CHINA'S S&P ...notice that it's UP 35% "THIS YEAR!"
getting the picture...they don't need the american or european consumer...
they are building UP their country BIG TIME...spending all those hundreds of billions in U.S. dollars they have been accumulating over the years BEFORE THEY DEFLATE...
it's simple guys...THEY NEED AND ARE DOING BIG TIME IMPORTING...that's why the BDI is rocketing... this ain't no bubble ...
this is CHINA growing BIG TIME...WHOLE NEW CITIES AND INDUSTRIAL CENTERS...
their OWN CONSUMERS...
finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=A0wNc9R7lmBKAQIB...
take a look, and their S&P index should be going up with all the new growth...
OCNF will be carrying tonnage AT EVER INCREASING RATES as we go forward and their contracts (which are already high...lapse)
no-brainer...OCNF will be a big winner...specially when compared with many highly-touted U.S. stocks who have limited growth potential based on selling to U.S. tapped out consumers....
flashrob
finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=A0wNc9R7lmBKAQIB...
flashrob
$1.34.
Grab as much as you can.
that's why OCNF will be doing big biz hauling all the commodities going forward...
take a look: (there's a lot more you don't know about China and HOW BIG AND FAST IT'S DEVELOPING... they plan to OUTDO THE U.S. AND EUROPE, JAPAN, etc.
currently this website is restricted...compared to what was on there before... but the Chinese gov... has restricted access to the web... they are afraid we have too much influence on their culture... used to be one of my favorite sites... they GOT JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING WE HAVE ON AOL, FACEBOOK, UPLOADING VIDEOS, PERSONALS... if we got... THEY GOT IT...and their building it all over... online shopping...they got it BIGTIME...
SO TAKE A LOOK AT SOME CITIES...
it ain't bicycles and shantytowns ANYMORE...
www.jongo.com/searchAl......
FLASHROB
www.jongo.com/searchPh...
flashrob
first of all, notice it's in English...then notice the listing of types of restaurants in the left column...
it's a little less than 7 yuan to the dollar...so just divide the price by 7...just a little bit less for a slice of pizza than here...
think China is "growin" ...IT'S ALREADY THERE ...AND GETTIN' "BIGGER AND RICHER!"
so OCNF and other ocean carriers will be doing a lot of TRANSPORTING ...especially amongst "emerging mkt" countries like Brazil and China, and including major commodity countries like Australia...
they need the U.S. AND EUROPE "less and less" ...BUT THEY NEED "SHIPS" MORE AND MORE!
get the picture?
local.jongo.com/021/yp...
flashrob
THE FUTURE IS CHINA... you're still stuck in loser mode AND UNFORTUNATELY (FOR YOU) shorting one of the multinationals that the CHINESE ECONOMY heavily depends on...
their are a lot of people who are U.S. AND EUROPEAN CENTRIC...
...listening to the "endless debate" on whether the U.S. and Europe will RECOVER...
most pro-economist like Nouriel Roubini KNOW IT'S A LONG-TERM RECOVERY for most U.S. STOCKS, BONDS, ETC. ...if at ALL...
look at the numbers...CHINA is growing considerably in THE WORLDS WORST RECESSION since the great depression.
due to the multi-nationals exporting even the HIGH-PAID JOBS TO places like India...(programmers, systems analyst, service related medical call centers...and the like)...well the U.S. Real-Estate market has little chance of recovery...unless we develop something like "hydrogen-fusion!" ...and that ain't likely.
YOU ARE CLUELESS ...but you're "not alone..."
many U.S. INVESTORS are still listening to the hype on Wall St. about U.S. COMPANIES rebounding in a "dead consumer based economy!"
the last vestiges of this consumer economy ARE DRYING UP!
...ala, 2nd mortgage financing of their credit...
banks are TIGHTENING UP CONSUMER CREDIT (CARDS)...
BECAUSE THEY KNOW THE CONSUMER IS NOT GONNA BOUNCE BACK...
the jobs are overseas, the growth is overseas, the investment potential is overseas...
the U.S. AND EUROPE ARE drying up...sorry but that's the way it is.
so if you want to win, you invest in China and other emerging mkts like Brazil.
Citibank, for example, is heavily involved in China...their deals are making big money financing/trading stuff THERE...little profit is generated HERE.
WHAT DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT THESE "SEA-CHANGES" TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY...
even the numbers coming out of CHINA are evident...but Cramer and his type keep telling you about growth here...
GM for example is selling 40% less cars here, but their main bright spot is VEHICLES flying out of the showrooms in China...
it's really simple...they are GROWING...we AND EUROPE are NOT!
and OCNF, DRYS, others...will be moving FULL SHIPS between the emerging mkt countries...while shipping that supports domestic U.S. AND EUROPE declines, or if we have a slight recovery, stalls when the U.S. consumer doesn't RECOVER TO PRE-DOWNTURN LEVELS...
basic fundamentals... argue these points... not "short cheerleading"...
you will lose on the OCEAN FRT CARRIERS because they DON'T NEED THE U.S. CONSUMER TO HAVE HIGH-PROFITS...
flashrob
they tripled in most categories over 2007
with the exception of the 4th qtr 2008...from which THEY ALREADY RECOVERED WITH A GOOD 1st qtr in 2009
WHILE most U.S. investments ARE DOWN and haven't shown POSITIVE EARNINGS in the same time-frame (mostly riding up some on analyst's statements of: loss less than expected..) ...the majority of these companies have dim prospects FOR POSITIVE EARNINGS QTS for the forseeable future...
...but OCNF already had a positive 1st qtr...
and with the BDI rocketing...should be going up, UP, UP!
the share increase SHOULD ALLOW HUGE NEW VOLUMES...and allows big players to get big chunks without having to do it piecemeal in the existing mkt...
I expect that knowing the logic of growth in the emerging mkts...these big-lot buyers WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO SELL...
emerging mkt based investment IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE...
NOT IN "consumer-based" U.S. stocks, or even Treasuries (with the way their "printing and devaluing the dollar")
so LOOKING GOOD ...VERY GOOD! ...going forward!
www.marketwire.com/pre...
flashrob
notice OCNF rises with the Dow intraday, etc....
suspect the INCREASE IN DAILY VOL(over a million in the first hour)
indicates: shorts are starting to cover ...what with the u.s. and europe mkts rising... then ocean carrier transport have a demand increase...that's plus the fantastic China growth...
also: general accumulation by savvy investors at OCNF's current low price...
either or both...WITH THE TREND UP IN BOTH THE U.S. AND EUROPE...we should start going higher over the next couple weeks...
as more shorts get "more nervous" ...because recovery in U.S. and Europe ...spells more demand for U.S. AND Europe transport...AND NOW they are gonna demand compete with China (who been taking up the slack...why the BDI has been rocketing the last few months...)
so, it's looking "real promising for OCNF to make a move pretty soon...
analysts will be looking for "low-price bargain stocks"
with promising potential profits...and OCNF will be making those lists...
lol
flashrob
So bias, and just can't trust them for anything.
Wonder what agendas they have sometimes !!
what isn't being told...you'll be waiting a long time if you expect a company to reveal it's "strategic game plan."
but, I promised I'd get a "little financial" ...this by the way IS NOT MY BIG SECRET of why OCNF stock will go UP...this is just a "minor factor" in that...so I'll tell you what OCNF IS DOING...by issuing a billion shares...THEY ARE NOT HIDING ANYTHING ...THE REASON IS RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU...if you KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR.
OK, here's what they are doing:
1. you should know that MARKET CAP is the "price per share" x "the outstanding shares." (now this is not the true value of the company...but just what the mkt currently values the company at...the true value is known as the "book value") SO MOST COMPANIES STOCK PRICES ARE MUCH MORE THAN THEIR BOOK VALUE...one measure is P/E = STOCK PRICE divided by EARNINGS...
2. Now, go into Yahoo on the OCNF QUOTE and click on "competitors." (I'm just making this easy...there are a LOT MORE SHIPPING COMPANIES, etc. like, DRYS is not even on this list...but just to make it easy...you can get a rough idea of my point by looking at these numbers, etc...)
3. NOTICE THE "P/E's" ...Genco is like 13.79...
now, the average ballpark p/e figure for the shipping companies other than ocnf is about 7.
notice: ocnf is like .90 ...way below the average and significantly below genco.
now divide the average p/e...about 7 by .90 (ocnf p/e) and
YOU GET 7.77
NOW MULTIPLY 7.77 TIME OCNF old share number of about 137million...
AND LO AND BEHOLD, YOU GET 1.5 BILLION shares
So, NOW YOU KNOW WHY they issued 1 BILLION shares of stock, and WHY THE STOCK DIDN'T TANK...
BECAUSE OCNF was just bringing themselves UP TO THE AVERAGE P/E of the other shipping stocks...
that's how much it's undervalued...
so, the company figured if the "dumb mkt" doesn't raise the stock price to "comparable levels" based on EARNINGS with the other shipping companies...So, Ocnf JUST DID IT without the "dumb mkt."
now, the stock didn't and WON'T TANK WITH THIS DILUTION because the PROS know that ALL THAT WAS DONE WAS BRING UP OCNF into RELATIVE VALUE PARITY with the "current prices" of the OTHER "ocean frt carrier's stocks."
see, how simple this is...but you have been speculating about this for weeks...and all along it WAS RIGHT THERE IN FRONT OF YOU!!!
...also THERE ARE ALL KINDS OF RULES ABOUT how insiders handle PLANNED PURCHASES AND SALES, ETC. (I'll go into that in another post...suffice it to say...there will BE NO MASSIVE "ISSUING AND SELLING OF STOCK"...)
so, I hope with this clarity, will stop HEARING ABOUT HOW THE "BILLION SHARE DILUTION" will ruin this company...BY OUR "SHORT FRIENDS" OUT THERE!
the shorts like to "make mountains out of molehills"...because they HAVE LITTLE ELSE TO SUPPORT THEIR "NEGATIVE POSITION" going forward...
anyway, lol JUST KEEP HOLDING AND ACCUMULATING OCNF...and you won''t "need luck" to WIN!
flashrob
Like many of their FORECASTS ON MANY STOCKS...were based on a LONG TERM RECESSION MODEL...
they were CAUGHT WITH THEIR PANTS DOWN, AGAIN...
THE RALLY IN THE MKTS IN MAR09...AND NOW A 2ND LEG RALLY FOR THE PAST WEEK ...probably more UP today...
so, look for BETTER PROJECTIONS on the MANY STOCKS...and particularly the OCEAN FRT CARRIER SECTOR...
THE BDI IS UP 500% SINCE DEC08... when many of those forecasts were being compiled in the first qtr...they WERE BASED ON THE "WORSE RECESSION SCENARIOS!"
the DOW picked up about 2000 points since then, and appears were about to GO OVER 9000.
this mean THE FUTURE FOR OCNF is full ships...NOT JUST IN THE EMERGING MKTS as I previously posted extensively about...BUT ADD TO THAT
TONNAGE INCREASES FOR U.S. AND EUROPE...
it's going to be better than ever GOING FORWARD FOR OCNF and many other dry-bulk carriers...
THE DUMB SHORTS bought into the analyst's forecast... reality is MKTS ARE RECOVERING IN U.S. AND EUROPE... AND CHINA is ramping up bigger than ever...full ships and competition for them...
plus all kinds of problems/delays in shipyards...
and new ships have capital outlays that have to be paid off... so used ships are better deal...
some companies defaulting on new purchases throwing shipyards into further turmoil when the can't meet payrolls... so I wouldn't count on new ships flooding the mkt as an impact issue....
looking real good for BETTER FORECAST FOR DRYBULK ...the BDI proves it... and when the analysts REVISIT...
UPGRADES for OCNF and the other drybulks...
flashrob
1. they predicted a "summer in doldrums" for the mkts...WRONG...WRONG..... THE DOW FOR THE LAST WEEK AND TODAY!
we are having a "2nd leg" rally in the mkts, following the Mar09 rally...like up 25% for many stocks and more in Mar09...THE FORECASTERS BLEW THAT CALL TOO!
2. THE BDI ...geez, below 700 in Dec08...ocean shipping rates collapse...doom and gloom...with no end in site..."the BDI will be down bouncing off the bottom for a long time....
WRONG...WRONG...WRONG.... THE BDI is up about 500% since Dec08.
now the dry bulk carrier's stocks, like drys and ocnf all tanked...BASED ON DEC08 analysis and projected forward...but SURPRISE...things changed, and the mkts are recovering much bigger and faster than the forecasters dreamed of
and the analysts ARE SLOW TO FORECAST BIG TIME RECOVERY FOR THE WHOLE SECTOR...guess they get tired of "looking like dunces'!
China: the forecasters: China will see "recession big-time too" ...they will get creamed with the LOSS OF THE U.S. CONSUMER MKT...
WRONG AGAIN... these forecasters CAN ONLY TELL YOU WHAT THEY EXPECT in the future...based on the NOW...
and they are SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE NOW...which is CHINA and other emerging mkts growth going BIG-TIME...hardly at "a lull"...replacing the U.S. CONSUMER MKT with their own DOMESTIC CONSUMERS...
So, many of these same forecasters, etc. WHO DIDN'T SEE THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN in the first place KEEP GETTING IT "WRONG!"
...on "Armchair quarterbacks!"
I notice most of the negative comments (probably by shorts, or work for short interests) ARE ABOUT MGMT HANDLING OF OCNF...
many of you remind me of A BUNCH OF GUYS watching a football game together on the big-screen. Full of "chips" and "buzzed on beer!"
Now, with every losing play... you're screaming what a dumb so-and-so, this player or the coach is...
if you were down on the field...you'd see it A BIT DIFFERENTLY...you'd get creamed in the first play, and it would be "stretcher time!"
Notice, I rarely post "about mgmt decisions" ...I DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO ENOUGH INFO... you have to be PRO ANALYST OR IN MGMT IN THE COMPANY ITSELF to UNDERSTAND or even legitimately criticize "mgmt decisions" in my opinion. There is just too much involved in running a "giant operation!"
Now, what I do post about...are trends, news, etc.
where the INFORMATION is readily available...like gdp, employment, other mkt info that is readily available and not "behind closed doors!"
and in the case of OCNF for a relatively recent startup...MGMT HAS MY CONFIDENCE...
as they DEMONSTRATED by a 247% earnings gain in year 2008 over 2007.
so, I WOULD BE VERY RELUCTANT to think I can figure out BETTER THAN OCNF MGMT what is the BEST MOVE FOR STRATEGIC LONG TERM GROWTH AND PROFITABILITY!
so most of the negative criticism involves OCNF mgmt decisions... AND AREA THAT BOTH YOU AND I HAVE LIMITED ACCESS TOO!
the area I post about IS AVAILABLE TO BOTH OF US...
but I don't see you making NEGATIVE points about CHINA and the other emerging mkts, THE RALLY IN U.S. MKTS IN MAR, THE BDI...the current move up in the dow for the last week and today...
...all indicators that SHOW OCEAN FREIGHT CARRIERS WILL HAVE A RESOUNDING "RECOVERY!"
so instead of endless speculation and criticism about OCNF mgmt decisions... (anyone can criticize the "bad play" on the football field... specially guys with beer guts and full of "chips!")
let's hear your analysis of GLOBAL ISSUES which impact OCNF and the rest of the carriers...
problem for you...THE NEWS IS MOSTLY SUPPORTIVE of an "analyst/forecaster UNANTICPATED change in econ fundamentals"
that WILL RESULT IN A BIG-TIME RECOVERY IN THE OCEAN CARRIER SECTOR AND THEIR RESPECTIVE STOCK PRICES!
the mkt keeps going UP, etc.
bad play for shorts with the MOMEMTUM of the mkts and the economies of the world spelling big-time recovery for the ocean frt industry.
flashrob
check it out.
MANY DRY BULK STOCKS "UNDERVALUED" BY 70-80%...AND IN THAT LIST IS: OCNF...
...just a matter of time before the ANALYST'S UPGRADES...AND UP, UP...WE GO!
www.forbes.com/2009/07...
...better start covering shorts...WHEN IT'S IN FORBES...IT WON'T BE LONG BEFORE "BIG SIDELINE MONEY STARTS TO POUR IN ...and drive the stock up...
...have a nice day, and keep your finger on the "cover" button...when it happens I suggest a "mkt order" or it will fly right UP past you...
flashrob
also, this is about a month back...but you may not have seen this...it's the CHINA thing...
www.cnbc.com/id/313108a72/
also for twitter fans:
stocktwits.com/t/OCNF
also, we're on the map... and have the attention as one of the "best performing" sectors...should be on a lot of media tonight...so, should continue UP tommorow!
flashrob
ya global to purchase 300,000,000 shares or more of OCNF...
...just a little add to my prev...
anyone who buys 300million shares...is NOT GOING TO DUMP...there not enough vol in the mkt to handle...
big sign of CONFIDENCE in OCNF to buy that MUCH...
guess they got a pretty good idea of the future...and I don't think they're thinking BACK DOWN BELOW 1.30...like a lot of shorts are counting on...
no, I think them (YA) and FRIENDS are gonna be financing OCNF thru THE ROOF...to make sure they can BUY LOTS OF SHIPS...to REALLY EXPAND...in the NEW EMERGING MKT GLOBAL ECONOMY BIG GROWTH...
yes, I think OCNF is "gettin' ready to REALLY TAKE OFF..."
flashrob
as you read this remember the "rough operating cost" of running a "capesize"...the largest ship...is about $6500. PER DAY...
...now notice on these Ocnf contract day rates that Ocnf has COMMITTED DAY revenues ...THAT RUN ABOUT 4-5 TIMES THE OPERATING COSTS...
in other words: Operating profit appears to be about 75%...
THAT'S A REAL GOOD NUMBER...and it's locked in...
Now, as contracts expire...if the BDI is high or going up...THEN NEW CONTRACTS will be based on these rates...meaning, even "bigger dollars."
SO IT'S LOOKING GREAT FOR OCNF TO GROW AND PROSPER...and is a great STOCK compared to many who are just "losing less than expected" or buying gov bonds...when all the govs are "printing money."
here's the numbers:
Drybulk Carriers
M/V Trenton
April 2010 to August 2010
$ 26,000
M/V Pierre
June 2010 to October 2010
$ 23,000
M/V Austin
April 2010 to August 2010
$ 26,000
M/V Juneau (1)
September 2009 to November 2009
$ 48,700
M/V Helena
May 2012 to January 2013
$ 32,000
M/V Topeka (2)
January 2011 to March 2011
$ 18,000
M/V Richmond (3)
July 2010 to October 2010
$ 18,100
M/V Augusta (4)
November 2011 to March 2012
$ 16,000
Tanker Vessels
M/T Pink Sands
October 2010 to January 2011
$ 27,450
M/T Olinda (5)
Spot Pool - October 2009
—
M/T Tigani
September 2009 to November 2009
$ 29,800
M/T Tamara (6)
November 2010 to March 2011
$ 27,000
Now, with the growth of the emerging mkt demand, plus some bounceback in U.S., Europe, Japan...
IT WILL JUST KEEP GETTING BETTER FOR OCNF and most other "dry bulk" carriers...
and anyone buying share issues in "big lots" isn't gonna BE IN A HURRY TO SELL THEM...this is "too good" of an investment...compared to most other alternatives...
and the DEMAND for dry bulk JUST KEEPS GROWING...
regardless of the pullback in U.S. and Europe, which helps BUT IS NOT NECESSARY.
DEMAND FROM EMERGING MKTS will be the BIG FUTURE FOR OCNF and the other ocean frt carriers.
it's a "no-brainer!" Ocnf, one of the best investment plays currently out there.
flashrob
most people think of share-dilution as a NEGATIVE...and with good reason...
we've all seen instances of SOME COMPANIES in effect: "diluting their stock"... some examples: issuing "employee stock options," in lieu of pay raises, comes to mind. They also might just put more stock in the float, etc. Now, these moves depend on "what the company is TRYING TO DO, AND WHY!"
...if they are doing this just to "funnel money" to insiders...then that's not a good thing...and the are plenty of cases of that!
However, let's look at Ocnf...
1. first of all, they have secured the right (approved by shareholders) to issue up to a billion shares of stock.
Now, first of all, that DOES NOT MEAN they will, and secondly, WHY WOULD THEY DO THIS and "why do they want this option!"
here's a different take, than just "funneling money to insiders" and screwing the "outside shareholders in the float (stock on the open mkt).
let's look at recent Ocnf activities:
let's use the recent YA Global purchase issue of 300 million shares at about 1.30...(this is just an example...I don't know all the details yet).
Now, the first thing I notice IS THAT YA IS NOT GETTING THE SHARES "like cheap options issues"...but ARE PAYING 1.30 X 300 MILLION...about 430 million dollars...AND THIS MONEY GOES INTO OCNF...
...WHY ARE THEY DOING THIS!!!
answer: SO THEY CAN BUY MORE SHIPS...you can buy about 7-8-9 ships (based on Ocnf purchases of used ships recently).
1. you don't have to BORROW THE MONEY at "high interest rates" from one of the big "credit is tight now" lending institutions.
2. you can move quickly... not have the loan negotiations turn sour...you got the money...a seller has a ship ready to go...you BUY IT! ...not a maybe...you get that ship PRODUCING REVS QUICKLY.
3. remember the money...the 430 million...it is REAL MONEY ...so those diluted shares brought in REAL MONEY into Ocnf ...they didn't just dilute the stock price at pennies on the dollar for profit.
4. the money is being used, BASED ON OCNF's recent "purchase history," TO GROW THE COMPANY BY INCREASING THE FLEET SIZE.
in summary: It appears to me, and I think the evidence supports the above position, that this is what OCNF IS DOING AND WHY!
...this is the ethical way to GROW A COMPANY...
1. this share dilution IS FOR A GOOD REASON...THE FUNDS MADE ARE BEING USED TO BUY MORE SHIPS and grow the company.
2. this share dilution WHEN ISSUED, like in this case, is NOT BEING DONE FOR PENNIES on the DOLLAR...like in the "employee option example" I used above...but the BIG-LOT BUYER IS PAYING pretty close to mkt val for the stock...so he's not really DILUTING THE STOCK PRICE...he's taking the same risk AS THOSE OUT IN THE FLOAT...
so, as long as OCNF continues to restrict share issues for good reasons ONLY (to raise capital to buy more ships and grow the fleet)...and also gets REALISTIC SHARE PRICES for the additional shares issues...
THEN I DON'T SEE A PROBLEM WITH THIS...in fact, it looks from a financial standpoint... like this is a much better way to raise needed capital for expansion...then BORROWING THE MONEY at "high-interest" rates.
...that's my rough take...and why I'm not concerned about the "bogeyman" of SHARE-DILUTION that some people hype....
Ocnf to GROW BIG TIME...with FULL SHIPS...making great profits...
regards,
flashrob
in 2008 Ocnf had annual earning in excess of 2.00
and that was including a losing 4th qtr
in 2009 they already had a positive 1st qtr...YES THE EARNINGS WERE ONLY .13 ...BUT CONSIDERING THE SEVERITY OF THE WORLD WIDE DOWNTURN...IT WAS PREDICTABLE
so, going forward in 2009...I'M NEGATIVE ON A "WORLDWIDE ECONOMIC REBOUND...media, pundits, etc. are FAR TOO OPTIMISTIC...but I do believe we are COMING OFF THE BOTTOM...
NOW, the problem is NOT ALL STOCKS OR ECONOMIES WILL RECOVER...
BUT THE "EMERGING MKTS" LED BY CHINA will be THE BIG REPLACEMENT IN OCEAN FREIGHT DEMAND AND REVENUE...
so, it's should be obvious TO ANYONE WHO THINKS THEY KNOW SOMETHING ABOUT GLOBAL ECONOMICS ON DOWN TO THE INDIVIDUAL COMPANY LEVELS...not only what sectors will SURVIVE AND PROSPER...BUT ALSO WHAT COMPANIES...
THIS MIGHT NOT BE A BANNER YEAR FOR OCNF...but with the BDI indicating things are moving back to normal (at least for drybulk...and based, must I say it again, THE EMERGING MKTS LED BY CHINA REPLACING (and than some) the DECLINES IN OCEAN TRANSPORT DEMAND FOR THE U.S. AND EUROPEAN economies, countries, sectors, and individual companies)
what is so hard for you to see...
Ocnf and the rest of dry bulk ARE ALREADY RAPIDLY RECOVERING...as evidenced by the BDI...while the U.S. AND EUROPE, JAPAN, ETC....
LANGUISH...and only some parts of which will recover...
Ocnf will be back with more 2.00 plus earnings years...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS YEAR...in which they are staging a MUCH BETTER RECOVERY...than most other segments/sectors/compa... have a chance to do, GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF SHAKE-OUT in these other sectors/companies...(not the emerging mkts, by the way) in BANKING, RETAIL, AUTOS, and the other consumer based enterprises that WERE THE FORMER BASE OF MOST OF OCEAN FRT CARRIAGE.
we're looking to 2010 and beyond...and OCNF won't have a great 2009...but it won't be a company touting that "WE LOST LESS THAN EXPECTED"...which is what your getting from most other sectors/stocks based in U.S., Europe, Japan...
something that's OVER YOUR HEAD HERE??? looks simple enough to me...
Ocnf gonna grow BIG TIME in the future...thats why YA global WANTED IN...
flashrob
they got pretty good OPERATING REV and so with the EMERGING MKT DEMAND...which the few analysts anticipated...they will be back on track...already turned a profit in 1st qtr...which is better than many companies...BUT THE BIG THING IS...they have
GREAT POTENTIAL GOING FORWARD...due to China and the rest of the emerging mkts REPLACING DECLINES IN THE U.S., AND EUROPEAN MKTS.
most U.S. AND EUROPEAN COMPANIES are not gonna crack the Chinese mkt...THE CHINESE CAN DO ALMOST EVERYTHING THEMSELVES...
BUT THEY DO NEED "LOTS OF RAW MATERIALS" FROM OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD...they may be able to overcome the loss of the U.S. consumer...BUT THEY STILL NEED RAW MATERIALS...
and that's what OCNF does transports those raw materials...
so, the U.S. AND EUROPEAN ECONOMIES CAN TANK...become like ARGENTINA...
but OCNF and many of the other carriers WILL STILL HAVE LOTS OF BIZ AND ROOM TO GROW...
something you can't see in that logic...you're not only "short" the stock... you're SHORT on vision.
flashrob
despite, plenty of negative economic news, their are "increasing bright spots" and if you haven't noticed this is a "steady rally" already underway for a couple weeks...
we didn't give back the GAINS in the Mar09 rally more than 25% across the boards...DOW 6500 TO DOW 8000...(BALLPARK FIGS) and in the last 3 wks the DOW has picked up about another 1000pts...
GOT IT...IT'S THE 2ND LEG OF A RECOVERY TREND!!!
so, everybody but you "shorts" pretty much knows WHAT'S UNDERWAY...
Now, as the side money comes in... stocks which were justifiably sold down big-time...will start to go up STEADILY...
this is because the ANALYSTS were not EXPECTING SUCH STRENGTH in China (mainly) GOING ALL OUT TO REPLACE THE U.S. CONSUMER...as the main driver of their economy...
the dry-bulk carriers will HAVE INCREASING DEMAND from the "emerging mkt" players, like China, Brazil, India...who are preparing to INCREASINGLY DISENGAGE FROM DEPENDENCE ON WESTERN MKTS AND CONSUMERS...
this MEANS the dry bulk carriers WILL HAVE EVER INCREASING DEMAND FOR THEIR SHIPS...
now the CHINA RALLY...is not a "temp thing" and I'm gonna tell you WHY...
CHINA is sitting on "about a trillion" in U.S. DOLLARS via their history of funding our debt via the purchase of U.S. TREASURIES...
they're IN A BIND...because they know with the stimulus plans in THE U.S. AND EUROPE are increased deficit/borrowing AND FURTHER PUTS DOWNWARD pressure on the value of the dollar.
Now, the CHINESE have lots of dollars, so they don't want to see the DOLLAR DECLINE FURTHER...so they have to KEEP SUPPORTING THE DOLLAR...they can't suddenly stop...or THEIR OWN U.S. DOLLARS WILL DROP...
SO, they came up with a SMART PLAN...and here it is:
keep CURRENT LEVELS OF SUPPORT FOR THE DOLLAR...BUT: PRINT TONS OF "YUAN" their currency (and the difference they have plenty of reason to "print money" because a currency being printed should mainly be done because it "represents" growth/productivity in your economy (which is not the case in the West, we're devaluing the dollar by printing them too, but we're in DECLINE, so the value of our currency has downward pressure on it. (Euro, too)
So, here's what the Chinese are doing: PRINTING XTRA YUAN, BUYING DOLLARS WITH IT...THEN GOING TO AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, INDIA, etc. and BUYING UP COMMODITIES "AS FAST AS THEY CAN!"
...this is to essentially DIMINISH THERE U.S. DOLLAR HOLDINGS...without DRIVING THE DOLLAR DOWN...which would also hurt them...
this is HOW THEY "GET SOME USE OUT OF THEIR DOLLAR SUPPORT STAKE" ...so their "printing presses are RUNNING FULL STEAM AHEAD...
get it IT'S A "SEA-CHANGE" MOVE by the Chinese to get the "millstone" of the U.S. dollar OFF THEIR BACK.
now this means that GROWTH in CHINA will KEEP INCREASING...so it's not a temp thing, because commodities and shipping were cheap...
this trend is reflected by the UNEXPECTED RISE IN THE BDI...and that will continue...because CHINA...IS JUST GETTING STARTED...they have to UNLOAD AN AWFUL LOAD OF U.S. DOLLARS...
so, regardless of DECLINES IN U.S./EUROPEAN mkts/stocks/currencies...
...OCNF and the other dry bulks will HAVE EVER INCREASING DEMAND/REVS GOING FORWARD...
see, how IT IS...AND WILL CONTINUE!
that's why I'm in this stock/sector. This is one of the best potential plays for REAL RECOVERY based on REVS INCREASING.
We, are on the "comeback trail" and it's not due to bull-spin driving up many other stocks with less potential for recovery...which are being touted by the media...as have "less losses than expected."
Ocnf and the sector HAVE REAL POTENTIAL REVS COMING IN to justify the stock price recovering.
that's the general picture...
flashrob
I'm more interested in the BIG PICTURE!
and that is:
this U.S. EURO RALLY is "just gravy!
without it, even if the U.S. rally stalls, even if China stocks go down (you don't think the new middle class in China is heavily invested there, do you?)
most of the investment in China is in funds bought/sold by foreigners like in ETFS ...like fxi (bullish)...fxp (bearish) on China stocks...
but the real for sure gain is in COMMODITIES...oil, iron ore, etc. these will INCREASE regardless of foreigners dumping China stocks if a U.S. RALLY stalls because they are still "western centric" in their thinking that CHINA will slow without western consumer purchases....
China WILL CONTINUE AND EVEN RAMP-UP MORE to make use of their "huge dollar holdings" before the dollar starts a decline...TO BUY UP USE/STORE ALL THE COMMODITIES (hard-assets, not declining paper U.S. dollars) AS QUICKLY AS THEY CAN!
...they see the writing on the wall...and its "use dollars while they still have significant value, etc.
so, a RALLY STALL OR REVERSAL...WILL NOT MUCH EFFECT OCNF and sector for any great length of time...pull backs in rally might drop stocks/sector for a brief time (that's if the rally fizzles...and it don't look like that right now.)
but, my point: Ocnf and sector WILL MAKE GREAT REVS GOING FORWARD because of the China move with the dollar and replacing it with "hard commodities" using some, stockpiling some, etc.
So, that's why Ocnf and sector HAVE SOME OF THE BEST PROSPECTS GOING FORWARD...
they do not NEED A SUSTAINED U.S. RALLY TO RECOVER AND GROW...
THEY WIN EITHER WAY...U.S. EURO RALLY IS JUST XTRA GRAVY GOING FORWARD...
so, if rally in west falters, most u.s./stocks will again retreat...but after a brief time the mkt will get my points about OCNF and the drybulk sector BEING ABLE TO GROW/PROFIT BIG TIME...without much support from western mkts/rallies...
that's the BIG PICTURE!
FLASHROB
finance.yahoo.com/news...
just moving on UP...
AND WE STILL HAVE EARNINGS ON 5AUG....
flashrob
All things looking good.
...here's a simple point... one of the main criticisms of "shorts" is stock dilution...
...my point is that...IT DEPENDS...on why a company is doing this...so
a VERY GOOD use of share-dilution is to RAISE CAPITAL... so you can grow the company... often in liew of BORROWING AT HIGH INTEREST RATES from commercial lenders...who are obviously demanding "high rates" in these "worldwide economic downturn times" ...and also because of the "uncertainty of the global econ future (MAINLY IN THE WEST)...where most of these lenders are...and because they set rates mainly in accordance with how they expect the U.S. AND EUROPEAN economies to perform...well, interest rates are LIKELY to remain very high for the foreseeable future.
So, SHARE DILUTION is being used by MANY COMPANIES to RAISE CAPITAL TO GROW...especially when THEY HAVE GOOD REASON to KNOW they have a MARKET which WILL SUPPORT SUCH GROWTH.
Many U.S. AND EUROPEAN COMPANIES ...are facing CONTINUING DECLINES with respect to "such growing mkts" and they have LITTLE JUSTIFICATION TO EXPAND...
Now, the DRY BULK SECTOR has great reason to EXPAND...
the RAPID AND STEADY GROWTH OF THE EMERGING MKTS...gives them a very good reason to ramp up expansion... because they will have "increasing customers" for their services...DESPITE DECLINES IN U.S. AND EUROPEAN MKTS...
so, here's an example of DRYS doing a "share dilution" in line with the model of financing growth that I have indicated.
www.streetinsider.com/...
old news you might say, but my point is "view it in light of my post...."
good move by those in the sector LIKE DRYS AND OCNF!
also, cheaper to finance expansion/growth than paying down and having "high-interest" loans from western-centric commercial lenders.
regards,
flashrob
...MANY OF YOU ARE UNDER THE "ILLUSION" that your posts "short or long" GREATLY AFFECT THE PRICE OF DRYS... YOU ARE WRONG... though your posts "short or long" may SLIGHTLY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF DRYS...
THE TRUTH IS IS "BIG OUTSIDE MONEY" COMING IN and DRIVING UP THE "BUY SIDE" OF THE STOCK.
LOOK AT THE LINK BELOW AND YOU WILL SEE DRYS "MORE THAN TRIPLING" in the period from the beginning of Mar into the first week of May09.
GET IT..."BIG OUTSIDE MONEY" don't give a CRAP ...about your posts illuding to "share dilutions," mgmt ripoffs, etc.
Get It! ...they don't LISTEN TO YOU...I JUST POST HERE for the "small investor" giving him reason for long term play on DRYS, OCNF...and the rest of the DRY BULK SECTOR...which will be one of the safest and profitable plays IF YOU BET "LONG" ON THE STOCK!
NOTICE: IN THE HISTORICAL PRICES on the link...the HUGE RUN-UP IN "VOLUME AND SHARE PRICE"
FOR A PERIOD OF ABOUT TWO MONTHS...sure the shorts will say, yeah but we came back down...
SO WHAT...my point is THAT YOU/THEY HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE PRICE OF THE STOCK...
BIG OUTSIDE MONEY CAME IN BECAUSE OF CHINA/BDI...then they MOVED ON...AFTER MAKING A BIG HIT.
NOW, ANOTHER MAIN POINT IS "THAT THEY WILL BE BACK SHORTLY (NO PUN INTENDED) ...
and DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN...AND YOU WILL SEE DRYS run-up OVER 10 once again...and it has little to do with your posts, either "short or long."
This is headed your way: BIG UP AGAIN...why:
1. China growth...proving to be, not just a temp phenomena
2. DRYS has dropped significantly since the 10 range in May09...and will be looking REAL GOOD to the BIG OUTSIDE MONEY.
finance.yahoo.com/q/hp...
so, keep posting like me...BUT BE AWARE THE STOCK RUNS UP BIG TIME...due to BIG MONEY OUTSIDERS...DRIVING IT UP! ...then they move on to another play...but they COME BACK...
BECAUSE THEY DO THIS WITH STOCKS...that have REAL GOOD POTENTIAL...so if they want to STAY IN FOR THE LONGER TERM...there is little DOWNSIDE RISK...of getting stuck in a loser for the long term...
the very fact that they are doing this with DRYS shows THEIR LONGER - TERM CONFIDENCE IN THE STOCK...
SO, WERE HEADED FOR ANOTHER "BIG RUN UP!" ...AND I WOULDN'T WANT TO MISS IT...because some dumb little short scared me out... WHEN THE WAVE UP COMES IN BIG TIME...the shorts will JUST BE FLUSHED AGAIN...it's nice to have 'em ...SHORTS ARE GRAVY on drys run-ups...
and I'M SURE THE BIG-MONEY looks at the SHORT INTEREST when they figure that...
IT'S TIME TO RUN THIS BABY "UP AGAIN!" ...short interests is about it's max for some time...a bit over 4mil...so I FIGURE THE "BIG-MONEY" considering that as a factor..."when they decide to make a move"
know "short interest" is about as high as it's likely to go in this time setting...
so, look out shorts...
regards,
flashrob
www.deseretnews.com/ar...
it's good were rallying, and things look better for the western economies... but in this article you will see it's the commodities that are IMPORTANT to China, replacing the U.S. Consumer...
so, China WILL KEEP PUSHING GROWTH...especially in developing a "replacement consumer" for the decline of the "u.s. consumer." ...and that means...NO ABATEMENT IN THEIR STIMULUS PLANS... more iron ore to build MORE "CITIES AND INDUSTRIAL CENTERS, ETC.
gonna be filling up OCNF and drys, and rest of sector ships...and with the western in a "slight recovery mode" off the bottom...
competition for "dry bulk space" will intensify and drive BDI back up... just takes a little time... and you've already seen the signs with the ANALYST UNPREDICTED RISE IN THE BDI from Dec08-less than 700 to OVER 3000 NOW.
pretty soon some shorts will be getting the "dreaded margin call" and caving in... letting the rest "take the bigger loss...."\
1.21 to 1.61 in about 3 weeks...THE CLOCK AND THE STOCK IS TICKING "UP!"
flashrob
here's example of ya global share dilution...
notice the average price over months was more than many longs on the board paid for their shares in the open mkt...
the shorts try to CREATE THE IMPRESSION that the share dilutions are RIPOFFS of the mkt players...
this is the actual ya global purchases for months...
DON'T LOOK TO ME THAT THEY MADE A KILLING AT YOUR EXPENSE...
share dilutions ARE A POTENTIAL PROBLEM if they go for PRICES considerably under the open mkt...
that doesn't appear to be the case...
WELL SHORT SCAMMERS...
WHAT HAVE YOU GOT TO SAY...
stockinvaders.com/blog.../
FLASHROB
so, for the time being, you can read my posts, if you wish, in reverse order from the top down at the link below (until you start running into duplicates)...
IT'S GETTING "HOT AND HEAVY" ON THE YAHOO BOARD as I battle the "SHORTS!"
search.messages.yahoo....
FLASHROB
quote.barchart.com/tex...
flashrob
these are FOUR OF THEIR "TOP PICKS!"
www.fool.com/investing...
so, indicative of support...now and in future...
flashrob
to say the least: I'm disappointed but not changed in my "forward prospects" for Ocnf.
what I didn't expect, and neither did the shorts was the DEPRECIATIONS almost 32 million...WE WOULD HAVE HAD A QUARTERLY PROFIT OF DOUBLE ANALYSTS ESTIMATES OF .02...WE WOULD HAVE HAD .04 according to the news release.
However, understand that the 32million write-down is depreciation off book-value...AND OCNF DID IT THIS QUARTER...
on the bright side: IT'S DONE AND OUT OF THE WAY...and THIS WAS DONE AT THE EXPENSE OF "FLEET UPDATE," indicating their average is now ten years as opposed to others 14 years...so it's done and out of the way...and WILL NOT DOG US IN A FUTURE QTR.
they probably could have posphoned this... but I think they know they have a good company...and are less interested in "figgeting shareholders" than they are in "clearing the decks" and "growing the company."
So, I am very disappointed in the quarterly results, but I understand them, and why Ocnf did this, especially at this time...
after all the stock was already at a "sh_t price" so might as well TAKE THAT DEPRECIATION NOW (and that's all it is... a standard writedown on asset value from "book to mkt.")
so, we have a stated .04 double the expected by analysts... if we don't count the depreciation...that's good, not marvelous ...but then this HAS BEEN A BAD PAST 12 MONTHS FOR THE DRY BULK SECTOR...
so, in conclusion, I think will be ticking up going forward...and I think ANALYSTS will be revising THE NEXT TWO QUARTERS UPWARD...especially with this "huge depreciation write-off at this time."
so, I expect NOT ONLY MOVE BACK UP FROM 1.50 after hours, but move BACK UP TO AT LEAST 5. BY YEAR END...maybe sooner if rally continues and or analyst start covering DRY BULK SECTOR more INTENSELY.
anyway... I AIN'T SELLIN'
this was always a "longer term play" for me.
regards,
flashrob
1. the mkt may treat the news DIFFERENTLY then the "after-hours" crowd initial response. I think they understand "depreciation" in a different way, etc.
2. the "number crunching analysts" will almost certainly UPGRADE us in view of getting that depreciation done... someone has already just posted something about that...have to see.
3. One of the biggest things is YA GLOBAL ACCUMULATING SHARES... 52 MILLION DOLLAR UNTIL MAY... and it looks like they plan go DO MORE!
4. This is also a great price...circa 1.50 range...FOR THE SHORTS TO COVER... I think most thought "they were toast"... well, guys don't miss the "last chance" ... don't think it will go lower in the mkt tomorrow... so, my advice, get in pre-mkt.
5. A buying opportunity also for those WHO THOUGHT IT HAD ALREADY RUN UP TOO HIGH...like 40% in the last two weeks...maybe their last chance to get in at these "bargain basement prices!'
6. the LONGER TERM ...all my stuff about CHINA...emerging mkts ...filling up the DRY BULK SHIPS...plus tight credit for ship new ship purchases, plus the high price compared to used ships...OCNF MODEL still appears best to me...
AND THE STOCK IS STILL THE ONLY SECTOR LAGGARD!
regards,
flashrob
diluted shares: not when they're paying "mkt range prices." they are not buying for "pennies'' on the dollar and that's what the word dilution means to most...
here's a prev post of mine on share dilution in the case of Ocnf...
messages.finance.yahoo...
don't know where this is with respect to the float...
but YA GLOBAL appears to be "dwarfing the float"
I think they are distributing "big blocks" to big-time investors... SO THEY MUST THINK THE STOCK HAS GREAT PROMISE...otherwise why BUY SO MUCH...and PLAN TO BUY MORE...
PLANNED PURCHASE BY YA GLOBAL
investing.businessweek...
ALREADY PURCHASED BY YA GLOBAL
stockinvaders.com/blog.../
not for pennies: this is not a "dilution" in a negative sense to me...since they are paying "mkt range" prices...
THIS GREATLY INFUSES OCNF with capital to buy ships...(which the mkt did not do with the shares in the float...ocnf wants to grow...and they can not wait for small shareholders to fairly value the company...is my take.
so, this looks good to me... all though shareholders whine at the fluctuations in the "day-trading" potential/price of the stock.
BUT LONG-TERM...looks good to me... specially in comparison to most other stocks in the economy, who have to wait on the recovery of the "u.s. consumer - a long wait, looks like to me - WHILE OCNF IS RAMPING UP TO SUPPLY CHINA AND THE EMERGING MKTS...
well, I'm gettin' tired... we'll see in the days ahead, about UPGRADES, mkt reaction, etc.
regards,
flashrob
1. by now, even you "shorts" should recognize that the stock has been holding in the 130-145 range since stabilizing the day after earnings.
Doesn't this tell you something...IT SHOULD...
somebody is BUYING up the float...anytime it would appear to get weak...whether the DOW GOES UP OR DOWN!
GOT IT "SHORTS!" IT AIN'T GONNA TANK...so your wasting your time...
Interests like YA Global WHO CAN BUY MORE STOCK IN BIG PRIVATE PKG DEALS...CAN "DRIVE UP OR PROTECT THE FLOAT" ANYTIME THEY WANT...especially when they are interested enough to block purchase MORE THAN THE ENTIRE FLOAT ON THE SIDE...just about anytime they want.
2. My second point... THE DEPRECIATION that resulted in a "big 2nd qtr loss" (and if not for that they would have beat .02 with a double .04 profit)...that DEPRECIATION HAS "ALREADY BEEN TAKEN"...so it's not a "millstone" on the back of OCNF GOING FORWARD...
SO, not "rocket science"...OCNF will have a VERY GOOD 3RD AND 4TH QTR...
Now, that being the case, AND WITH NO REAL ABATEMENTS in the "growing emerging mkts...like China" ...OCNF and the rest of the DRY BULK SECTOR... are in one of the FEW AREAS in the "global economy" THAT HAS NOT JUST RECOVERY (with less than expected losses ...as many other u.s. stocks...that are going UP significantly have...) BUT OCNF has some of the BEST POTENTIAL IN THE WORLD...since unlike most U.S. STOCKS it's profits and growth ARE NO LONGER DEPENDENT ON recovery in the U.S. AND EUROPE...their profits and growth ARE MAINLY BASED ON GROWTH in China and most of the other emerging mkts...WHICH ARE DOING FAR BETTER THAN THE SHAKY U.S. AND EUROPEAN recoveries...
AND OCNF being the "laggard" in the dry bulk sector HAS THE "BEST POTENTIAL" of the sector IN MAKING THE "BIGGEST PERCENTAGE GAIN!"
ocnf is in one of the best potential sectors for "recovery and stable big profits" and it's THE POTENTIAL LEADER OF THE PACK!
now, dumdum shorts...I haven't posted for a week, BUT YOU HAVE ...AND LOOK AT THE STOCK PRICE...
it HAS NOT "TRENDED DOWN AND STAYED DOWN" despite ALL YOUR SHORT SCARE EFFORTS...
get it, the BIG MONEY like YA Global knows this is ONE OF THE BEST POTENTIAL PLAYS...
proof is: THEY PUT THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS...so-to-speak...
buying A LOT...AND PLANNING TO BUY MORE...
so unless you think THEY ARE COMPLETELY CLUELESS... consider that
YOU MIGHT BE "COMPLETELY CLUELESS!"
people don't buy up DILUTIONS at MKT RANGE PRICES...because
THEY THINK THE STOCK IS A CLUNKER...
are you shorts that "STUPID!'
ocnf going UP BIGTIME in near future...
...BE ON BOARD or you LOSE...when this one pulls out of the station!
FLASHROBI haven't posted for about a week... just been too busy with more important stuff...now that I have a moment... HERE'S SOME LOGIC about OCNF!
1. by now, even you "shorts" should recognize that the stock has been holding in the 130-145 range since stabilizing the day after earnings.
Doesn't this tell you something...IT SHOULD...
somebody is BUYING up the float...anytime it would appear to get weak...whether the DOW GOES UP OR DOWN!
GOT IT "SHORTS!" IT AIN'T GONNA TANK...so your wasting your time...
Interests like YA Global WHO CAN BUY MORE STOCK IN BIG PRIVATE PKG DEALS...CAN "DRIVE UP OR PROTECT THE FLOAT" ANYTIME THEY WANT...especially when they are interested enough to block purchase MORE THAN THE ENTIRE FLOAT ON THE SIDE...just about anytime they want.
2. My second point... THE DEPRECIATION that resulted in a "big 2nd qtr loss" (and if not for that they would have beat .02 with a double .04 profit)...that DEPRECIATION HAS "ALREADY BEEN TAKEN"...so it's not a "millstone" on the back of OCNF GOING FORWARD...
SO, not "rocket science"...OCNF will have a VERY GOOD 3RD AND 4TH QTR...
Now, that being the case, AND WITH NO REAL ABATEMENTS in the "growing emerging mkts...like China" ...OCNF and the rest of the DRY BULK SECTOR... are in one of the FEW AREAS in the "global economy" THAT HAS NOT JUST RECOVERY (with less than expected losses ...as many other u.s. stocks...that are going UP significantly have...) BUT OCNF has some of the BEST POTENTIAL IN THE WORLD...since unlike most U.S. STOCKS it's profits and growth ARE NO LONGER DEPENDENT ON recovery in the U.S. AND EUROPE...their profits and growth ARE MAINLY BASED ON GROWTH in China and most of the other emerging mkts...WHICH ARE DOING FAR BETTER THAN THE SHAKY U.S. AND EUROPEAN recoveries...
AND OCNF being the "laggard" in the dry bulk sector HAS THE "BEST POTENTIAL" of the sector IN MAKING THE "BIGGEST PERCENTAGE GAIN!"
ocnf is in one of the best potential sectors for "recovery and stable big profits" and it's THE POTENTIAL LEADER OF THE PACK!
now, dumdum shorts...I haven't posted for a week, BUT YOU HAVE ...AND LOOK AT THE STOCK PRICE...
it HAS NOT "TRENDED DOWN AND STAYED DOWN" despite ALL YOUR SHORT SCARE EFFORTS...
get it, the BIG MONEY like YA Global knows this is ONE OF THE BEST POTENTIAL PLAYS...
proof is: THEY PUT THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS...so-to-speak...
buying A LOT...AND PLANNING TO BUY MORE...
so unless you think THEY ARE COMPLETELY CLUELESS... consider that
YOU MIGHT BE "COMPLETELY CLUELESS!"
people don't buy up DILUTIONS at MKT RANGE PRICES...because
THEY THINK THE STOCK IS A CLUNKER...
are you shorts that "STUPID!'
ocnf going UP BIGTIME in near future...
...BE ON BOARD or you LOSE...when this one pulls out of the station!
FLASHROB
I think it will be "OVERWHELMINGLY APPARENT TO YOU"...things I'll cover:why this stock is NOT GOING DOWN ANYMORE other than the normal cyclical intraday range...why this stock is NOT MOVING UP RAPIDLY...just for NOW that is...and most importantly WHY AND WHEN IT IS MOST LIKELY TO DO SO......who, many convincing shorts are likely to be affiliated with...so, be on the lookout...I don't like to be a spoiler even for "big money" but I'm getting a trifle impatient...
flashrob
Ps. and MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU...why you should STAY PUT IN THIS STOCK...AND ACCUMULATE MORE...sort, of just like "big money" is doing RIGHT NOW...as "bargain basement prices!'
FROM 4.65MILLION TO 1.7 MILLION...
YOU SHOULD READ MY LAST SEVEN POSTS HERE:
search.messages.yahoo....
I don't have time to dupe them here, sorry.
flashrob
stockology.blogspot.com/
I agree with MOST OF WHAT IS WRITTEN HERE...he has THE BIG PICTURE...
so, the BIGGEST WINNER WILL BE CHINA...
...and the DRY BULK SECTOR is one of the few "western ventures" that can GROW/PROFIT from this "sea-change" in the global economy!
the greatly wounded U.S. CONSUMER, upon which many U.S. stocks are dependent has a LONG ROAD BACK...and my thinking is: IT WILL NEVER RECOVER FULLY...so most U.S. BASED STOCKS (and many are consumer based as opposed to say gov purchases, etc.) don't have much of a RECOVERY FUTURE...
China will contimually MAINTAIN converting excess U.S. DOLLARS INTO COMMODITIES...some for stockpiling as a hedge against inflation, future currency deval both in the U.S. AND THE CHINESE YUAN...
...it's pretty much spelled out in that post...and that guy does NOT HAVE THE SAME KIND OF VESTED INTEREST IN SPINNING BS, like the gov, Wall St., etc.
read it and see "your future!"
but, one thing is fairly clear...OCNF and the rest of the dry bulk sector...have some of the "best potential" as western entities THAT CAN BENEFIT from China's NON-STOP surge to GROW INSTEAD OF WEAKEN AS MUCH OF THE U.S. AND EUROPE are doing....
flashrob
most people, when they hear of a pending "share dilution" of a stock they own immediately think that the value of their shares will be diminished by being diluted...NOT NECESSARILY TRUE!
Here’s an example of two types of share dilution. One is “bad” and one is “for good reasons!”
Let’s say four brothers each put up “one million dollars” and form a corporation. That’s 4 million dollars that the corporation has as a “book value.” They issue “four thousand shares of stock.”
Each gets 1000 shares of stock for a buy-in of 1 million dollars. So, each share of stock has a book value of $1,000.
Now, here’s the example of a bad and good type of “share dilution.”
One brother gets married and they all agree to allow his new wife an equal stake in the company.
Bad dilution example:
They issue her 1000 shares of stock, making her an equal owner of the company. Now, here’s the rub!
If they give her the stock either for “free” or for “pennies on the dollar” (as in many cases) THEY HAVE DILUTED THEIR STOCK.
Because, now the 4 million dollar company DIVIDED by 5000 shares (instead of the original 4000 shares) has a “share value” of only $800. if they just diluted the stock AND GAVE IT TO HER!
Good dilution example:
They issue her 1000 shares of stock, making her an equal owner of the company. But, unlike in the example above…SHE PUTS IN A “MILLION DOLLARS,” just like each of them did when they first formed the company.
Now, the picture is quite a bit different. Yes, they diluted the shares from 4000 to 5000. But, the “actual share value” HAS NOT DIMINISHED…despite the SHARE DILUTION!
The company now has a “modified book value” of 5 million dollars, and that divided by the new diluted shares (5000 shares now) …
Is STILL $1000. PER SHARE…so THE SHARE DILUTION DID “NOT DIMINISH THEIR SHARE VALUE…
So, all this ballyhoo about OCNF depends on which of the examples above their “share dilution” is based on.
Now it appears to me, that OCNF got the “right” to issue up to a billion shares of stock. Obviously they have not actually done that fully. But from what I can determine “YA Global” did not get the shares that were issued for “pennies on the dollar” as in the “bad example of a share dilution, but rather, THEY PAID MARKET RANGE EQUIVALENT PRICE to become a part owner.
…meaning, as in the “good example” of share dilution… THE SHARE DILUTION DID NOT DIMINISH THE SHARE VALUE of those who were shareholders prior to the dilution.
Now, below is a list of an earlier dilution in which YA Global acquired shares of Ocnf. Notice they paid 1.56 on average for the shares they purchased…they DID NOT GET THEM IN SOME SCAM ISSUE “WAY BELOW MKT VALUE.”
stockinvaders.com/blog.../
this purchase by YA Global of 52 million shares (more than half the float) pumped 82 million dollars into OCNF. That increased their book value as in the example of a “good share dilution!” Now, if Ocnf continues this kind of share dilution (which doesn’t dilute the prior shareholder value) then I say…GREAT…BUY MORE SHIPS…EXPAND THE COMPANY…GRAB A BIGGER MKT SHARE OF THE DRY BULK SECTOR….
Getting the “BIG PICTURE” here! Ocnf is INCREASING THE POTENTIAL VALUE OF THE EXISTING SHARES IN THE FLOAT by this type of share dilution by growing the company.
Why did they do it this way…well YA Global OBVIOUSLY THINKS IT’S A GOOD DEAL…otherwise why do it…and they couldn’t acquire 52 million shares quickly and at a fair price…by trying to buy up the float in small bits from small investors. Also massive buy side pressure would have driven up the stock sharply making it not a very good play for YA.
BUT WHAT YOU SHOULD TAKE AWAY…
IS THAT YA GLOBAL IS BUYING UP A “HUGE INTEREST” IN OCNF and plans to acquire MORE …GOING FORWARD…
Now, why is that?
Simple, BECAUSE THEY “KNOW” they are going to MAKE MUCHO BUCKS…based on “big-money” professional inside analysts of things like:
CHINA, the sea-change in global economics (meaning the declines in the U.S. and European economies). China spending down EXCESS U.S. DOLLAR HOLDINGS before THAT TOO DECLINES…and FILLING UP THE SHIPS OF DRY BULK CARRIERS WITH "HARD COMMODITIES" INSTEAD OF SITTING ON "PAPER U.S. DOLLARS" THAT FUNDAMENTALS ARE GOING TO DEVALUE.
BIG MONEY BUYING “BIG BLOCKS” OF OCNF…THERE’S A REASON THEY ARE DOING THIS…and with OCNF IN PARTICULAR…
“I’M FOLLOWING BIG MONEY” …not a BUNCH OF DUMDUM LOSER SHORTS ON THIS BOARD!
Everybody else: my advice FOLLOW BIG MONEY…forget these “dumdum loser shorts!” …
“IT’S THAT SIMPLE!”
FLASHROB
great...got you to do that LARGELY IRRELEVANT PIECE OF work for me...
IRRELEVANT BECAUSE "YOUR SHARE DILUTION SCARE IS ...AS I SAID... "NONSENSE!"
now, the MAIN point...YA GLOBAL DIDN'T GET THE STOCK FOR FREE OR PENNIES ON THE DOLLAR... GET IT...
the whole point of "my share dilution" example was to show you... that they didn't devalue the stock... BY THIS TYPE OF DILUTION...
below are two links:
the first shows a range of (not all but enough to illustrate my point) YA GLOBAL purchases...(and I know they're a "financial distributor" ...it's in one of my posts about 9 Aug...where I made that point ...that they REDISTRIBUTE to end purchasers as a middleman...)... too bad you don't read my posts... except looking for "numbers to dink around with."
below are two posts:
the first shows the purchases of YA GLOBAL
FOR A PERIOD OF ABOUT 5FEB-5MAY 2009, including the MARKET RANGE PRICES THEY PAID FOR THE SHARES...
LET ME SAY IT AGAIN..."MARKET RANGE PRICES THEY "PAID" FOR THE SHARES.
the second shows the "stock price" history of Ocnf for the same range of dates...
stockinvaders.com/blog...
finance.yahoo.com/q/hp...
NOW, notice that YA GLOBAL infused Ocnf with tens of millions of dollars of capital (increased book value) ...and they purchased the stock...at "mkt range value."
I gave you the "share dilution examples"
to INDICATE THAT SHARE DILUTION...when a new entrant PAYS MKT VALUE PRICES...
IS "AN IRRELEVANT DILUTION!'
what, the "f" ...don't you understand about this...
you dumb shorts keep trying to "raise a phony dilution issue"
listen carefully: share dilution MATTERS LITTLE if the "newly issued shares" are PAID FOR AT "FLOAT MARKET LEVEL VALUES."
so, Ocnf RAISES THE CAPITAL THEY NEED TO BUY MORE SHIPS...instead of paying high interest loans....
in the type of "share dilution" Ocnf is doing, , the original shareholders don't lose because of the dilution...BECAUSE the "book value goes up" because of the new cash brought in by the "SALE AT MKT VALUE PRICES"
think of this: in the sixties in the U.S. their was a certain amount of U.S. DOLLARS EXISTING THROUGHOUT THE WORLD...
there are MANY TIMES MORE U.S. DOLLARS throughout the world ...NOW...
...and up until this recession...the "printing presses" basically only printed more money (issued more dollars) to reflect the INCREASE IN PRODUCTIVITY AND ASSET VALUE of the goods and svcs largely produced by the private sector.
(now they are actually running the "printing presses" to deficit spend...not because of growth in productivity, etc.)
now, you shorts try to convey the fearmongering that Ocnf with their stock dilution is like the U.S. GOV is currently doing running the "printing presses..." meaning NO GROWTH IN PRODUCTIVITY/ASSET VALUE...BUT LOTS MORE DOLLARS (which in that case weaken the dollar since their are MORE DOLLARS representing stable or declining productivity/asset value.
However, Ocnf is NOT RUNNING THE STOCK SHARE PRINTING PRESSES...they are issuing shares and GET "NEW MONEY" at mkt range prices...
bottom line: STOCK DILUTION the way OCNF is doing it IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT to "existing shareholders."
but, it's a good way to finance in a tight credit, high interest mkt.
get the "BIG PICTURE" YET!!! ...somebody pls explain to the dumdums...
I hate having to post 20 times about an issue that is econ/biz 101... it just doesn't seem to get thru to some...
flashrob
that's what I'm thinking about..not "little number crunching" posts! ...while you shorts are arguing number cruncher numbers...like the dumb analysts...I'm LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE and how it might shake out...for instance:
1. the major big spin is the IMPACT OF ALL THOSE NEW SHIPS that are gonna flood the mkt...driving down the BDI.
this is shaping up to be NONSENSE SPIN...kinda like the "stimulus plans."...THE REALITY IS THEIR ARE BIG PROBLEMS with the effectiveness of the "stimulus plans" (DID LOOK GOOD ON PAPER...BUT IN REALITY...NOT TOO GOOD!) THERE ARE BIG PROBLEMS WITH NEW SHIPS, TOO!...like...
1. financing...the banks are about to take a 2nd hit...meaning TIGHTER CREDIT YET...at even higher interest rates...and for only the "best customers" with survival potential in a renewal of western economy downturns (not China, emerging mkts...they are the exception.)
Better candidates in the sector to short, if so inclined, are carriers that have orders in to buy NEW SHIPS...
A. SHIPYARD CLOSINGS, SHIPYARD LABOR PROBLEMS, DELAYED DELIVERIES OF SHIPS, SUPPLIER PROBLEMS, carriers defaulting on purchases...thereby losing more of their money, and if they take delivery...paying down expensive new ships with high-interest loans in ever tightening credit mkts
...ocnf...HOWEVER...bu... used ships AT MUCH LOWER PRICES and putting them into service QUICKLY...
...ocnf...locked in CONTRACT RATES...whole lot better than gambling with the volatility of BDI...that's why DRYS suddenly switched to this tactic....
also, the contract rates of OCNF guarantee revs EVEN IF THE BDI TUMBLES...GOT IT!
now those other carriers...some will probably default on those new ships...bdi rates WON'T BE VERY PROFITABLE on NEW SHIPS...even if they don't default...meanwhile OCNF cruising along...paying for USED SHIPS AS THEY GO by selling newly issued shares "at mkt val prices"
...HAVE LOCKED IN CONTRACT RATES...so BDI of minor significance to them......not paying high interest loans to finance purchases...
SO IT APPEARS TO ME OCNF is in a WHOLE LOT BETTER POSITION THAN MANY LARGER CARRIERS in the competition going forward...
remember Circuit City...big player...got in over their head...now MANY SMALLER MODEST PLAYERS WILL SURVIVE...and remain in the game.
Ocnf is shaping up to be A SURVIVOR with their gameplan, as I indicated above, as opposed to some other bigger carriers....and as SOME OF THESE OTHER CARRIERS GO DOWN THE TUBES...OCNF will be there to SCOOP UP THEIR SHARE...
ON OCNF TAKEOVER POTENTIAL...potential share issue seems to me to prevent hostile takeover since the majority of the shares were in the float and not held internally...this put OCNF in a bad way......BEFORE THE ISSUE POTENTIAL someone could buy up the whole float and do a hostile takeover...NOW it seems to me OCNF could just issue MORE SHARES and "trump" a hostile takeover.
also, I'm thinking SOMEONE LIKE CHINA might want to buy them...just a thought...but if they did...acquiring OCNF would be just a "drop in the bucket" for them...but figure OCNF sitting on a few hundred million shares (now see why the issue) COULD CUT A NICE DEAL...(and not risk someone buying them on the cheap...AND RESELLING AT HIGHER PRICES TO SAY A "CHINA!"
again, this is just stuff I'm mulling over...
been watching for the "telltale clues" though...while you shorts crunch "your little number disagreements"
BOTTOM LINE:
'nother piece of "marketeer spin" ABOUT THE IMPACT OF NEW SHIPS... MOSTLY "BULLS_IT!" ...in REALITY...don't think it's gonna happen...just like I don't think the "current" stimulus plans by various world govs are gonna influence things very much!
OCNF TAKEOVER POTENTIAL is increasing in my view...BUT only at the RIGHT PRICE...
...and Ocnf mgmt, wisely can issue shares to prevent a hostile takeover now, and resell to say a China at higher prices...
So, if OCNF gets their price...it will BE GOOD...and the same shares they hold/issue will be at values THAT ALSO MAKE A NICE PROFIT FOR THOSE "WHO STAY LONG!"
think about what I said here...
flashrob
the mkt is down BECAUSE OF CONCERN ABOUT THE U.S. CONSUMER...it's all over the place...
now, if you read my posts...THAT IS ONE OF THE ISSUES THAT HAS BEEN IN MANY OF MY POSTS FOR WEEKS!
you're behind the curve as usual...
the U.S. AND EUROPE ARE IN BIG TROUBLE...as well as Japan...
everyone thought China was gonna TAKE A HUGE HIT because of loss of the u.s. consumer...NOT SO...
they put their stimulus plan into action...AND UNLIKE OUR'S AND EUROPES...THEY GOT "BIG BUCKS" plenty of U.S. DOLLARS almost a trillion...
they don't want to buy more but they have too to keep their existing u.s. dollars from tanking...
so, they're clever plan is to keep purchasing u.s. treasuries by PRINTING YUAN (they can "legimately" run their currency printing presses because they have the "growth" to justify issuing more yuan...)
So, from now on they:
1. print yuan use it to keep up dollar purchases (to support their stash of u.s. dollars)...
2. convert those dollars to Australian, Brazilian, Indian, etc. currency...LOAD UP ON "HARD COMMODITIES" and NOT TAKE A BIGGER STAKE THEN THEY ALREADY HAVE IN U.S. DOLLARS that will DECLINE IN VALUE because of our "deficit stimulus spending." That goes for the Euro too.
do you understand the points I'm making...
Ocnf and most other bulk carriers WILL DO WELL despite decline in U.S. AND EUROPE...read back thru my posts...I keep hammering these points over and over...
BECAUSE GUYS...THAT'S THE REALITY...regardless of media pundits/the gov/Euro spin...etc.
Ocnf will do well...carriers committed to purchasing NEW SHIPS ...will have a tough time.
Ocnf will be A SOLID SURVIVOR in ALL THIS PLAY ACTION...in the "sea-change" in the world economy...
CHINA AND EMERGING MKTS will continue to move away from dependence on us...AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO "REPLACE" MANY DRY BULK CONTRACTS THAT WERE BASED ON U.S. AND EURO MKT SUPPORT...
that's the BIG PICTURE like it or not...
we're headin' Argentina way...along with Europe...
flashrob
INSINUATING THAT THINGS AREN'T TOO GOOD IN CHINA with a 2nd look... (yeah, WHO IS DOING THE LOOKING and who is spinning it, and for what vested interest...is my first thought...)
the news YOU GET COMING OUT OF CHINA...IS BS...
with the U.S. AND EUROPE in almost "crisis" mode with the recession...and China and the emerging mkts with SOLID POWERFUL GDP GROWTH...
well, what do you expect from u.s. based gov/media interests...
they are bullsh_ting their butts off to defuse the flood of western investment in China...
it's called survival...and it's basically an unspoken agreement to save their butts and their investments in domestic investments in the u.s. and europe...
when Ford has a clearly better product than Chevy...and YOU'RE A CHEVY SALESMAN...are you gonna move to Ford...NOT LIKELY...AND THEY PROBABLY HAVE NO OPENINGS FOR YOU...AND YOU'D HAVE TO START "AT THE BOTTOM"...
YOU STILL KEEP BELIEVING THE SAME PUNDITS/ANALYSTS/POLIT... INTERESTS...
"THAT CAUSED THIS PROBLEM"...
WAKE THE " " UP!
flashrob
www.koreatimes.co.kr/w...
flashrob
below is an excerpted article about COSCO the second largest carrier in the world...
now they operate 431 dry bulk ships with orders for 44 more...but THEY JUST CANCELLED 8 ORDERS FOR NEW SHIPS IN "ONE MONTH ALONE!"
now, as the other carriers will probably do similarly...THAT MEANS ALL THAT PRICED IN OVER-CAPACITY is "not gonna happen!"
so, OCNF with their "smaller footprint" will TAKE UP THE SLACK...as the big boys start slip-sliding all over the place.
so, I expect OCNF will just continue to buy used ships...
and at the end of the article you can see that the big-boys PLAN TO CUT CAPACITY TO "DRIVE UP RATES!"
also, China still growing...MOST OF THE LOSS IN COSCO...is due to container shipping ...that ALL OF US KNOW BY NOW was to fill up the stores for the western consumer...MEANWHILE CHINA GOT LIKE 8% POSITIVE GDP...UNLIKE THE LOSING GDP IN U.S. AND EUROPE...
what DON'T YOU UNDERSTAND ABOUT THIS...
here's excerpt
The shipping line’s container fleet comprised 149 vessels as of June 30, with another 57 on order. It also operated 431 dry-bulk ships, with orders for 44 more. The company canceled eight commodity ships last month.
The shipping line, the world’s second-biggest by market value behind A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S, won’t pay an interim dividend.
All 10 of the world’s largest listed container-shipping companies have posted losses this year, triggering industrywide efforts to raise rates through coordinated increases and capacity cuts.
from:
www.bloomberg.com/apps...
flashrob
1. Ocnf has chosen wisely to RAISE THE MONEY IT NEEDS TO BUY MORE "USED" SHIPS (less than expensive new ones, and with shipyard delays to boot...)by getting authorization to issue more shares.
2. The alternative to this is BORROWING at "high-interest rates" in a tight-credit mkt. If they did this...THE LOANS WOULD BE A "DEBIT" OWED ON THE BALANCE SHEET...
SO ABOUT THE SAME DIFFERENCE...except if you borrow the money to expand...now you have a bigger debt due to interest on the loans...AND YOUR BALANCE SHEET IS EVEN WORSE.
so, either way THE OVERALL BALANCE SHEET effect on the stock price would be nearly the same...it's actually better with share dilution...because you don't have the added "interest payments" (which would be high) on the principal borrowed.
the SHORTS like to make a big thing about "share dilution"...as I have explained in many previous posts...even though this is a common technique throughout the biz world for raising capital. The IMPORTANT QUESTION IS: ARE THEY PLOWING THE MONEY THEY RAISE thru sale of additional diluted shares BACK INTO THE COMPANY...and in the case of Ocnf...they obviously are...using it to buy more used ships...
the second point is: if the diluted shares are being purchased for "float mkt prices" then DILUTION IS VIRTUALLY MEANINGLESS...except as a "emotional buzz word scare tactic" by committed "shorters."
here's a more detailed explanation of WHY SHARE DILUTION IN THE CASE OF OCNF IS A SMART WAY TO RAISE CAPITAL TO BUY MORE SHIPS AND INCREASE THE OVERALL VALUE OF THE COMPANY AND IT'S STOCK....
seekingalpha.com/user/...
NOTICE THE SHORTS KEEP HYPING "SHARE DILUTION" IN MOSTLY ONE LINER POSTS...without getting into a "detailed discussion/explanation" of THE REAL POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE STOCK PRICE...this is a "typical stock manipulation attempt" by the shorts to "stampede" people into thinking that somehow (without looking at the detailed explanation of the issue) they are being "taken advantage of" and that a "share dilution" is a ripoff on their investment in a company.
Typical short move! Try to create a stampede by spooking investors with buzzwords/phrases like "share dilution...SHARE DILUTION...SHARE DILUTION!" ...hoping of course that novice investors will panic and cause the stock to tumble. Notice THEY DON'T WANT YOU TO LOOK AT THE "DETAILS"...WHAT THE DILUTION REALLY MEANS, WHY IT IS BEING DONE...IT'S "REAL IMPACT ON THE COMPANY" ...and most importantly...WHY THIS IS A "GOOD MOVE" by the company for ALL SHAREHOLDERS...not just new ones buying in.
Ocnf is at about 1.39...the "Pros/big-money" are VALUING THIS STOCK AT THIS PRICE...based on "big-picture issues"...like China expanding, shipyard issues, etc...NOT ON NON-ISSUES like "phony dilution scare issues" by shorts.
The fact that Ocnf can ISSUE MORE SHARES and have NEW BUYERS WILLINGLY TO INVEST IN THE COMPANY is the BIG ISSUE. IF THESE PEOPLE DID NOT THINK OCNF WAS A CREDIBLE BET..."they would not be willing to BUY THESE ADDITIONAL SHARES (and at mkt-range prices).
That's a "very telling point." Ocnf would not be able to sell these addtional shares and RAISE CAPITAL THIS WAY...if no one wanted to buy the additional shares.
So, sorry shorts...as I said before...YOU GOT "NOTHING!"
...except your "pathetic one-liners" like the bogeyman of share dilution you keep throwing out there...discuss it in detail and I'll see what you have to say...but of course you won't BECAUSE YOU KNOW IT'S REALLY IRRELEVANT IN THE CASE OF OCNF.
FLASHROB
the question is: which ones go under...because Pro investors don't see much potential for recovery...AND WHICH ONES LIKE OCNF CAN SHOW A "1ST QTR" PROFIT...though small...was not a "less than expected loss" as MANY OTHER STOCKS ARE SHOWING...(the 2nd qtr loss was largely due to...get that depreciation off the books NOW...and not have that like a millstone on our back for the next qtrs...EARNINGS SHOULD BE A LOT BETTER IN COMING QTRS...DUE TO TAKING THIS WRITEDOWN NOW...)
OCNF is showing "much better than average resilience" in the worldwide economic downturn...and the fact that THEY CAN RAISE CAPITAL TO BUY SHIPS AND EXPAND IN ONE OF THE WORST ECONOMIC DOWNTURN PERIODS IS "TO THEIR CREDIT" and what makes them
a "much better than average pick" to RECOVER AND GROW...
I look at many other stocks/sectors...that are being touted by media pundits and Wall St. "vested interest" spin doctors...and quite frankly...I'm not too positive on MANY.
look at FNM (Fannie-mae)...this week...jumped like 50% in one day...ALL BULLSH_T!...THERE AIN'T GONNA BE NO HOUSING RECOVERY...
the future is not bright for "deficit spending" U.S. AND EUROPE...
best plays are China, emerging mkts, commodities that CHINA and emerging mkts need TO "GO THEIR OWN WAY" and abandon the U.S. and Europe...and the "dollar" for that matter....
So, Ocnf will HAVE REVS/PROFITS transporting for the likes of China and other emerging mkts...while the U.S. and Europe continue to "spin their recovery ILLUSIONS!"
SO, with the depreciation "already taken" we should see a much better 3rd/4th qtrs...etc.
flashrob
caps.fool.com/Ticker/O...
...still long...and figure 3rd qtr good since depreciation taken in 2nd qtr...
flashrob
...latest SEC filing... 27 Aug 2009... includes 650 Million Dollar financial plan, share issuance....
here is the latest sec filing for Ocnf...dtd "about" 27Aug09...
now, I hope the "monkey" will review all the data...it's quite lengthy...AND HE LOVES DETAILS...so I've provided EVERYONE with this filing... THEN we can all make up our minds as to the general overall status of Ocnf stock, their potential moving forward, mgmt plan, etc.
THIS IS DATED LIKE 27AUG2009 and INCLUDES a 650 million... financing plan...so read the details, etc..."I know the monkey will, etc!"
this way we can separate the "wheat from the chaff" more easily when someone gives us a "famous one-liner," etc.
moneycentral.msn.com/i...
I, by-the-way, did not go thru this in detail, so, I, also will form an opinion about Ocnf's viability and profit potential going forward...
just remember a few things:
1. Most global stocks have taken a significant downturn with the global financial meltdown.
2. So-called "share-dilution" the way Ocnf does it, IMHO, benefits the existing shareholders...if the money is PLOWED BACK INTO THE COMPANY...thereby raising it's overall value.
3. New shares issued THAT ARE PURCHASED AT MARKET-RANGE PRICES is not a dilution of existing shareholder value...I've covered this point in previous posts.
4. And finally, Ocnf, as well as many other carriers in the "dry-bulk" sector HAVE MUCH BETTER POTENTIAL REV/PROFIT GROWTH PROSPECTS than many other U.S. stocks,because they can CONTRACT OUT HEAVILY TO CHINA AND THE EMERGING MKTS...whereas many other U.S. stocks futures are DEPENDENT ON A "U.S. CONSUMER RECOVERY" ...which is VERY MUCH IN DOUBT.
So, I'll look at this data in detail...as you should too, and compare it with the potential of other stocks/sectors in gauging the forward growth and profit potential of Ocnf, especially as compared to alternative investments, etc.
regards,
flashrob
moneycentral.msn.com/i...
flashrob
make sure you click on the subsequent posts in the "thread!"
messages.finance.yahoo...
regards,
flashrob
Thanks
finance.yahoo.com/news...
WHICH BODES WELL FOR OCNF and most of the rest of the drybulk sector....
plus the BDI is UP eleven days in a row!
flashrob
www.nytimes.com/2009/0...
Ocnf gonna benefit...even if U.S. and Europe DECLINE!
flashrob
www.thestreet.com/_yah...
FLASHROB
article covers the sector and mentions Ocnf RAMPING UP!
finance.yahoo.com/news...
another ship purchase...
finance.yahoo.com/news...
bottom line: the only good reason were down is the "mkt tank in general" ...but if mkt starts recovery... and it should...
when then the sector and Ocnf should see increased interest and stock price improvement...
flashrob
earnings should be much better for 3rd qtr... since they took the "big writedown" in the 2nd qtr...
don't say I didn't warn you, when the stock pops ahead of earnings...
are you going to wait for the "insiders" to run it up, while you try to play catch up. This looks like a "no-brainer" to me... specially based on the rally looking "more and more" solid as the days fly by....
flashrob
so, with the proactive "get Ocnf noticed" campaign, and as I said in my previous post: earnings should CERTAINLY BE BETTER because Ocnf used the "second qtr" to take the hit.... the 3rd qtr should be good, else why "draw attention to yourself" by showing a "greater presence" in BIG SECTOR GATHERINGS... to get SOME NEW INVESTORS... only to disappoint and lose them with bad earnings, etc...
that's my take on what Ocnf is planning/strategizing ahead of 3rd qtr.
So, I expect a "solid move" over $2. going forward in the weeks ahead of earnings, etc.
don't miss the run back up... especially good when you can get the stock now, this cheap...like 1.25............ looks like an easy "make a buck" or double, when all is said and done.
example of OCNF promoting themselves:
finance.yahoo.com/news...
regards,
flashrob
finance.yahoo.com/news...
FLASHROB
as I've been saying for a while... CHINA!!!
FLASHROB
shorts are ALREADY COVERING... and I expect we are "gaining traction" ...and we should start accumulating as big-players trade more conservatively, figuring 3rd qtr earnings will be better than expected, etc.
heres "short interest chart" on Ocnf...
finance.aol.com/compan...
...better COVER shorts... you're buddies ALREADY ARE!!!
flashrob
if you look at a 6month interactive chart... you can see this right in Yahoo...
Ocnf spikes up terrifically JUST BEFORE EARNINGS...ABOUT .80CENTS IN MAY09...AND ABOUT .40CENTS IN AUG...
were getting close to 3rd qtr announcement 1st week of November...
don't miss out... regardless of WHAT YOU THINK SAY... BIG MONEY GONNA POP OCNF FOR A "BIG HIT GAIN" 1st week of Nov...
and lots of people had a pretty good idea of poor earnings in 1st half and Aug...BUT IT STILL WENT UP TERRIFICALLY...
MIGHT SEE 2.00 this time... since the "big write-down" was taken in Aug09... so 3rd qtr might be "slightly better than expected," and though I don't think this is what is really going to move the stock up...ya know, better than expected news in the world and u.s. econs is also good...BUT I THINK BIG MONEY DAY-TRADERS WILL POP THE STOCK "UP" just before/at earnings as EVIDENCED BY THE "HUGE MAY/AUG SPIKES"...
DON'T MISS OUT ...LOOKS LIKE A QUICK EASY HIT...then risk selling if you wish as BIG MONEY DAYTRADERS MAY EXIT...
STILL A GOOD BET FOR THE LONG-RUN ON FUNDAMENTALS ...but
I SMELL A "BIG RUNUP!"
luck,
flashrob
typical short... WHY ARE YOU ON THIS BOARD AND "CONCERNED WITH THIS STOCK?????????????"
IT IS A POOR CANDIDATE FOR SHORTING... since the company has "contract revs"...the economies of the world and U.S. ARE PICKING UP...and they obviously have BIG-BLOCK SHARE POTENTIAL far dwarfing the existing float... with YA GLOBAL etc.
the only reason I can see... is your trying to drive the STOCK DOWN (but not OUT) ...
SO THAT: THOSE BIG-BLOCK POTENTIAL TRADERS AND MUTUALS CAN BUY UP CHEAP SHARES to PROFIT ON THE 3RD QUARTER EARNINGS RUNUP...
BOUT IT...ISN'T IT...
once I determine something is a loser or flat with little potential ...I MOVE ON TO SOMETHING ELSE... and DON'T WASTE MY TIME BASHING, ETC.
so who you WORK FOR OR CONNECTED WITH... ELSE WHY ARE YOU WASTING YOUR TIME HERE...bashing this stock??????????
GUYS THESE ARE "PAID BASHERS" ...TRYING TO "GET YOUR FLOAT SHARES CHEAP!!!" ...that's my take what else could it be...
flashrob
mainly because I knew, any REAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY must INCLUDE "REAL ESTATE RECOVERY!"
...the numbers are surprisingly strong... and this is a sign to me that this is not just a HYPE RALLY...in U.S. mkts...
looks like will GET ANOTHER UP DAY ON MKTS...futures were down, but starting to reverse to positive...
well, it shouldn't be too long before we start seeing the UPGRADES in ocean carrier potential...the BDI is rocketing... the analysts can't ignore the math/numbers for too much longer...
it's INVEVITABLE...ocean carriers will GO UP FAST ...when they start putting out some media coverage...
it's all about INCREASING VOLUME...then we should go up quick and big...
here's the "housing report!"
www.insulateamerica.co...
flashrob
Sentiment : Strong Buy
my position is BASED ON ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS...
1. huge emerging mkt growth replacing much of u.s. and european shipping.
led by China
2. weakening dollar... but Ocnf can get paid in "yuan" or other emerging mkt currencies that are appreciating against the dollar.
3. worldwide crop shortages... due to "global weather" growing worse month-by-month, year-by-year....
4. shipyard problems... and all those "new ships" you hear about WON'T BE COMING ONLINE... because they are NOT COST EFFECTIVE for the dry-bulkers stupid TO BUY NEW SHIPS... and many will CANCEL DO TO HIGH CREDIT TO FINANCE...
one of the big banks just advised it's credit card customers...THERE NEW RATE IS 29%... PLUS THEIR "CREDIT ALLOWAN