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Comments on CBL's Brief and Painful Stay on Goldman Sachs' Conviction Buy List
by Tyler Durden
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    A more cynical view is that Analysts play real investors. Buy issuing sell signals at lower prices and buy at higher prices, enables traders and wall street types to buy the lows and sell the highs in size efficiently.

    The more closely I follow the markets, the more cynical I get about all the big calls that big money makes. The poor retail investor gets hurt everytime....the public buys most at the top and least at the bottom.
    2009 Jun 18 07:47 AM Reply
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    I have been saying for weeks that these games will continue until the REITs raise the money they need to meet upcoming requirements. Not a very popular statement on SA, but hey, some sucker has to pony up the money, and if that's where folks want to sink their hard-earned money, its still a free country - well, sort of, and if they don't do it, the government probably will.

    Its sort of like the guy in front of me at the gas station who buys ten lottery tickets. I always feel compelled to thank him for willingly paying extra taxes. These people who are getting led around by the analyst REIT and bank opinions are doing us a huge favor. I have been talking to people inside CBL and other REITs. From those conversations, it seemed the positive news was mostly smoke and mirrors based on what needed to happen, not on any objective, fundamental data.
    2009 Jun 18 08:57 AM Reply
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    Wonderful!!!! Now I know how to trade on Golden slacks recommendations.
    2009 Jun 18 09:01 AM Reply
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    Whipsaw! I'm glad I haven't had a similar experience in all my years as an analyst.

    It is unusual that his RNAV didn't change between March and June. RNAV is the net realisable value of a company assuming the disposal of assets based on any available information of achieved prices for similar assets in comparable locations. As a result, it changes from quarter to quarter (really depending on how much work the analyst wants to do). The analyst should build this RNAV data going back in time in order to build a historical P/RNAV chart. Using historical precedence, the analyst is then able to give the market an idea of how the stock might trade during e.g. a recession / financial crisis. His price target should be based on a forecast RNAV i.e. RNAV based on expected prices in 12 months time less disposal costs. If he's very sophisticated, he might even be able to apply the appropriate RNAV discount based on whether he feels the economy will be recessionary or expansionary in 12 months time.

    I didn't see any of that metholody in the excerpts you provide which suggests this analyst might have been inexperienced (didn't know how to analyse the sector) or lazy (didn't bother to do the work - i.e. winging it) which would explain why he panicked and got whipsawed (if you don't know what something is intrinsically worth, you will easily panic when faced with market gyrations).
    2009 Jun 18 12:11 PM Reply
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    I hav followed this companies recs. and that is in fact the case. calling an oil bottom at 20 so you do not buy mow, and making a buy call when the market should correct.


    On Jun 18 07:47 AM Macro_Man wrote:

    > A more cynical view is that Analysts play real investors. Buy issuing
    > sell signals at lower prices and buy at higher prices, enables traders
    > and wall street types to buy the lows and sell the highs in size
    > efficiently.
    >
    > The more closely I follow the markets, the more cynical I get about
    > all the big calls that big money makes. The poor retail investor
    > gets hurt everytime....the public buys most at the top and least
    > at the bottom.
    2009 Jun 18 02:10 PM Reply
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    All you have to do is pick up ten of the best books describing the financial shenanigans and fiascoes of the last thirty years to know exactly what's going on today. The only thing that changes is the style of clothes and the hairpieces.

    We wont know about these spectacular financial heists for another five or ten years of course and sometimes the actors will die in their beds and their secrets will be buried with them. But they are as perennial as the love of money.
    2009 Jun 18 04:07 PM Reply
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    XCW posted the same comment to 10 diffferent threads.

    Please, please please get rid of this clown.
    2009 Jun 18 07:53 PM Reply