Big Move Day Likely

With a small NYMO change Thursday, there's a very good chance the market will get a sizable move within the next couple of days.

This indicator doesn't indicate market direction, but after 3 straight down days in the S&P 500, and after today's doji candlestick and bounce at the 200-day moving average, odds would favor an up day. However, if the 200-day moving average breaks, the big move could be down. Either way, we'll be ready for it.

With quadruple witching this week (contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire), anything can happen, but this week often features extra volatility.

Comments

[Larry House:]

Thanks for another dose of the obvious.

Jun 18 11:05 AM

[jeandit75:]

wow, this is a very long term focus, give me s big swing up on Friday and I'll short more cause down the road, there is still much more downside risks than upside (unless we are living in Mickey Mouse's world...which I doubt sometimes).

Jun 18 01:59 PM

[twotraps:]

SPX breaking back to 875-880 would provide some nice movement without disturbing the uptrend from March. Now everyone is happy...the short term bear gets some movement and the bulls can 'keep buying undervalued companies'. I've thought that how prices react up here would be enough information to figure out the next several hundred points....but actually how prices behave on a pull-back might be more intersting. Will people really load up on stocks if we are back around 875? There is still so much rule changing-tv senate testimony crapola going on to get a clear picture. I love that months ago the banks were on the brink, but somehow they came up with 100 B to pay back?!

Jun 18 04:09 PM

[StreetMedic:]

Executive summary: Markets might go up. They might go down.

Jun 18 04:47 PM

[logicalman:]

on june 01, i stated that i expected a correction of 5to 10% in the near future....the closing price at that time,for the s&p was 943...5% would bring us to 896, 10& would bring us to 849...we,re almost there for 5% and i still think we will see 840 to 860 soon...in june??? after that, we will see!!!

Jun 18 09:15 PM

[twotraps:]

What would really change if the SPX were to pull back into 875, 850 or 840? Would that really tell us if the economy is recovering? Just trade it! I agree that some distribution back down would not be out of the ordinary. As far as the larger economy goes.........are we through the credit crisis? Has the crisis jump started other festering projects like health care and other slightly unfunded issues the govt regularly avoids because the numbers are so sick!!!?? Can anyone on this forum really say that the overall mkt has fully digested the situation and we can resume a march to 1800 in the SPX? I do strongly support creative destruction and know the US has the best chance to create new products/services/busi... and there will be plenty of opptys to invest in..........at the same time, I think its less likely we are totally out of the woods here.

Jun 19 10:15 AM