J.C. Penney Company (JCP) is expected to report earnings on Thursday, May 16th. The whisper number is -$0.82, four cents ahead of the analysts' estimate. JCP has a 77% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 27 of the 35 earnings reports for which we have data).
- Beat whisper: 27 qtrs
- Met whisper: 1 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 7 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we look at what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -1.7% comes within five trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and +6.1% within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The overall average price move is opposite when the company reports earnings.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
Last quarter the company reported earnings five cents short of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 15.6% loss in after hours trading, and dropped an additional 16.2% in five trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) an opposite price reactor (beat the whisper and see weakness, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing "crowd sourced estimates" for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's "price reaction" to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are "rewarded," while companies that miss are "punished" following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.