Trend Condition of Key Stock Categories

Staying abreast of the direction of the primary trend (200-day average) of key stock categories and the position of moving averages of various length relative to the primary trend is helpful, along with fundamental and marco-economic information, in maintaining an overall situational awareness.

The table below presents the ratio of the value of the the 200-day simple moving average now to its value 20 days (1 month) ago. Values greater than 1.02 are shaded green for UP. Values between 1.02 and 0.98 are shaded yellow for UPDN. Values less than 0.98 are shaded pink for DN.

The table then presents the ratio of four moving averages (1-day [price], 25-days, 50-days, and 100-days) to the current 200-day average. Values greater than 1.02 are shaded green for ABOVE. Values between 1.02 and 0.98 are shaded yellow for NEARLY SAME. Values less than 0.98 are shaded pink for BELOW.

Note: table data above are from MetaStock which tracks prices only, whereas charts below are from StockCharts which plots price adjusted for dividends.

Here are charts for the funds in the table:

Comments Based on Price Data (table data):

The primary trends for all of the categories are still in a downward movement.

Because of headlines, it is probably not surprising that China is closest by the measure used here to an upward trend, but it may be surprising that Japan is next closest to an upward trend.

Only China and Brazil of the categories studied have each of the four shorter moving averages above the 200-day average, with emerging markets overall nearly there, and with developed Asia excluding Japan next in position and not too far away.

Disclosure: We own some of the named funds in some managed accounts and may own any or all at various times.

Comments

[Larry House:]

Useful info. Thanks.

Jun 18 05:21 PM