Jim Rogers Shares His Thoughts on the Market

It's been a while since we last covered Jim Rogers in full, so we figured now would be a good time to assemble a collective update. In the past, we've extensively covered Jim Rogers' portfolio so make sure you check that out to get a good background. Today must be Quantum Fund day at Market Folly, as we covered George Soros' hedge fund portfolio today as well. To get more insight from Rogers then check out his two books: Hot Commodities and then also A Bull in China.

Rogers has opinions on a vast array of topics so we'll just dive right in and try to present the updates as orderly as possible. Firstly, we want to start with the topic of the crisis in general. Obviously, Rogers thinks the United States and the U.K. are in bad shape and will be for some time. He likens the current situation to that of the 1930s. He says,

In the 1930s, we had a huge stock market bubble which popped. And then politicians started making many mistakes. They became protectionist. They made solvent banks take over insolvent banks and then both banks failed in the end. They are making many of the same mistakes now. What's different this time is that we are printing huge amounts of money which they did not print at that time. So, we are going to have inflation this time.

While the current crisis is unique in its own right, it does have shades of the 1930s written all over it. As such, Rogers focuses on inflation a lot and we'll get to that below.

Agriculture

Rogers still likes agriculture and thinks it will be one of the best investments in our lifetime. He says so under the premise that the world is growing and so are the number of mouths to feed. The economic emergence of countries that previously did not enjoy protein heavy diets have also spurred this trend on. Add into the equation the fact that supply is not necessarily growing to match demand, and you could have a real imbalance in the future. As such, Rogers likes agriculture and specifically farmland.

In the past, we've covered the farmland investments he has made and have elaborated on his thoughts. His main active investments are in Agcapita Farmland Investment Partnerships (in Canada) and Agrifirma Brazil. His bullishness on agriculture comes down to a simple supply and demand equation imbalance. Food inventories are at multi-decade lows and this is without a ton of major droughts or weather problems. Not to mention, there is a shortage of actual farmers (and not to mention farmland) and Rogers says this can be attributed to the fact that it has been a horrible business for the past 30 years. To see more of his thoughts on this topic, see our post about Rogers' extreme bullishness on agriculture.

Currencies, Commodities, and Bonds (Inflation Theme)

On the topic of currencies, Rogers has varying opinions as each currency is its own equation. Recently, he has been out saying that he owns the Chinese renminbi and he likes to add to his position every chance he gets (as he cites the difficulty to buy and sell the currency due to it being blocked). While he still has some US dollars due to being a citizen, he has sold nearly all of his holdings in the currency and sees serious problems developing. Overall though, he sees a currency crisis looming due to the amount of money governments around the world are printing. He sees the U.S. dollar as a flawed currency and thinks it could be the source of the currency crisis. He explains saying, "I would suspect that somewhere along the line, someone's going to say, 'I'm going to start selling mine (dollars) before everybody else does.' That's when you have a currency crisis."

While he has focused largely on the U.S. dollar, he has often remarked that the British Pound could have major issues as well. We found it intriguing that Rogers has repeatedly focused on the possible currency crisis scenario in his appearances. He has gone as far as to say that sovereign defaults are not out of the question. And, he would not be alone in that regard. Kyle Bass, manager of hedge fund Hayman Capital agrees and predicts sovereign defaults will be the next crisis. Bass is well known for predicting the housing crisis and profiting handsomely (along with John Paulson as well). To back up claims for possible sovereign defaults, Rogers highlights the U.K. in 1918 as it transformed from world power to a nation wrought with default in 1970. Additionally, he talks about how Iceland has already defaulted too. He thinks we could possibly see more defaults between now and 2011. You can view some of Rogers' past thoughts on currencies here.

Commenting on the government's actions, Rogers says

It's a mistake what they are doing. It's giving short-term pleasure, but there's long-term pain as we are going to have much higher inflation, much higher interest rates and a worse economy down the road.

Clearly, Rogers likens the current scenario to placing a bandaid on a gunshot wound victim and calling everything 'good.' Short-term solutions do not solve long-term issues. He cites this with evidence of the bond market already beginning to taper off and he thinks this will continue as the government sells a ridiculously large amount of bonds. This can be boiled down to one simplistic notion: when governments print a lot of money, you get serious inflation. At least, that's how Rogers sees it.

As such, Rogers does have one recommendation to benefit from this possible impending phenomenon: Buy commodities. As fiat money depreciates in value and inflation rises, assets (and namely commodities) appreciate in value. He thinks that commodities could lead the global economy out of this mess and even if that doesn't happen, they will still appreciate due to inflation. In terms of specific commodities, Rogers likes cotton, sugar, as well as silver. For more of Rogers' thoughts on commodities, check out this post.

Gold and Silver

While we could technically lump his gold and silver commentary in the commodity section, we felt it deserved its own section due to his views on the precious metals. Overall, Rogers likes gold and has no plans to sell his. In fact, he could be adding to his position should the right circumstances pop up. He says,

The fact is that the IMF is trying to get permission from everybody to sell gold. I don't know if it will succeed or not. But if and when the IMF sells its gold, gold prices may go to a bottom. Who knows? It may go down to $700. The IMF has a lot of gold to sell. If it does, I hope I'm brave enough and smart enough to buy more.

So, he likes gold. However, he likes silver even more right now due to it being cheaper on a historical basis since everyone has been piling into gold and driving up the price. Reverting to the topic of currencies quickly, we know that Rogers also thinks the debate on a new international reserve currency is a legitimate one. He thinks change is coming in this regard and he is not alone in those thoughts. Noted trader Dennis Gartman sees gold becoming the next reserve currency.

Short Positions

Rogers says it is rare for him not to have many short positions and so this definitely classifies as a 'rare' time for him. Derived from his stance on currencies, he hardly has any short positions at the moment due to the amount of paper money governments are throwing at the crisis. He thinks that a currency crisis is imminent and that investors should avoid shorting the market. Rogers says, "I'm afraid they're printing so much money that stocks could go to 20,000 or 30,000. Of course it would be in worthless money, but it could happen and you could lose a lot of money being short." As such, Rogers is not fighting the current trend and will pick his battles.

(Do note that Rogers tends to exaggerate things to make a point and we highly doubt he realistically sees the market hitting those numbers). He thinks the extended rally is nothing more than a bear market rally which could be further fueled in the near-term due to a weakening dollar and the Fed utilizing the 'printing presses' and printing more money.

China, India & Sri Lanka

While Rogers is bullish on agriculture and commodities in general, he is also bullish on select sectors in emerging markets too. Specifically, he has focused on water treatment. He notes China and India's water problems and he has bought water companies in China. He did not cite specific names, but we do know that Heckmann (HEK) has had a large presence regarding water in China, even if it is not right along the lines of what Rogers is referring to. He says that the Chinese are aware of their problem and are spending "hundreds of billions" to solve their agricultural problem. So, his bets on water treatment and agriculture are tied together.

When pitting the emerging market nations against one another, Rogers favors China over India. He does so because of the reforms and change that India requires to fully compete. While he likes the commitments coming out of India lately, he needs to see action rather than just pledges for it to become the next real big investment opportunity. Specifically regarding India though, he did say that he likes the prospects of tourism in that nation. While Rogers likes China, he has not added to that position since picking up shares back in October and November of last year. Instead, he is directing money toward commodities.

Turning specifically to Sri Lanka, we find out that Rogers really likes this nation as an investment because it looks as if the 30-year war is coming to a close. He cites numerous other examples of war-torn countries that have emerged successful after troubled times. Rogers highlights that there is significant opportunity at hand, and all it takes is hard work. He likes Sri Lanka as an investment more so than India, Pakistan, or Bangladesh.

Conclusion

As you can see, Rogers is very opinionated on a large set of topics and likes to think in macro themes. After all, this is where his successful background comes into play. He made a fortune running the Quantum Fund with George Soros using similar strategies. While the fund is now defunct, both are still active investors and are good to track for their macro methodology. Make sure you check out our past update on Rogers' portfolio to get a better idea as to what other positions he holds. Also, we examined George Soros' hedge fund portfolio this morning as well, so make sure you see what macro themes he likes these days.

To conclude, Rogers thinks that the stock market will eventually hit new lows this year or next year after the bear market eventually subsides. He thinks that our problems remain largely unsolved and we have a whole lot of work to do in order to emerge from this mess. He thinks that the UK is potentially worse off than the US (because the US has agriculture to fall back on), but that the overall picture is still bleak either way. He thinks that moving to London in 1807 was brilliant, that moving to New York in 1907 was brilliant, and that moving to Asia in 2007 would be the next brilliant move. He clearly sees a shift of power to the east as the emerging markets (and particularly China) start to bloom. He sees Mandarin as the most important language in the world going forward and has already begun teaching his daughters.

Speaking on the global economy's future, Rogers draws from the past by saying,

Throughout history, the center of the world has shifted to where the capital is, where the assets are. You don't see any period in history where things are shifting to the debtors, and America's the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. Unless something's different this time, unless the world's changed very very dramatically, the center of the influence, the center of the power, the center of the earth, the center of the globe, is going to be shifting towards Asia, because that's where all the money is. Have you ever heard of anybody saying, 'Let's go to where all of the debtors are'? It just doesn't happen that way.

If you want to follow Rogers, then bet on inflation, agriculture, commodities, China, and bet against the US and the UK. For more on what he deems to be the best investment opportunities out there, check out Rogers' two books: Hot Commodities and then A Bull in China. We'll leave everyone with one last bit of advice from Rogers: become a farmer.

Comments

[Larry House:]

Rogers' views have been well known for some time. I don't see any new ones here. I don't understand how commodities might lead us out of this mess, as is mentioned. The stronger the prices of commodities, the higher the costs for consumers, hence the lower level of spending consumers can make on things in general. I think lower commodity prices would help to lead us out--not higher commodity prices. Am I missing something?

Jun 19 10:59 AM

[Roger C. Wren:]

I think his position is that the "mess" is going to be with us a long time and probably get worse. He feels commodities are the best place to be for capital preservation during the "mess", not necessarily that they will lead us out.

Jun 19 11:16 AM

[Larry House:]

I agree with you, Roger. Then the article misrepresents his view. Note the paragraph above "Gold and Silver."

Jun 19 12:24 PM

[Donald Ingram:]

"Have you ever heard of anybody saying, 'let's go to where all the debtors are'? It just doesn't happen that way."
This is classic Roger's!
His views and viewpoints have always been common sense to me.
To ignore them is to put yourself in peril.

Jun 19 01:20 PM

[Joanito:]

So which is it ""I'm afraid they're printing so much money that stocks could go to 20,000 or 30,000. Of course it would be in worthless money, but it could happen and you could lose a lot of money being short." " or "To conclude, Rogers thinks that the stock market will eventually hit new lows this year or next year after the bear market eventually subsides."? Additionally, I do recall that commodities decided to come along for the ride to the bottom along with stocks. If anything, it has been proven that commodities are no hedge when the world is deleveraging the greatest credit fueled asset bubble of all time. Commodities are esepcially questionable in an evrironment where producers do not have as much pricing power. The only thing that higher commodities do here is to further squeeze business margins, causing more economic havoc. Also, I hear no mention of any potential ill effects of the loosening of lending policy in the developing markets. The world is teetering on the brink of true financial chaos as a result of an unruly debt bubbble in the west, but potential lending issues in Asia, which still has yet to come to grips with the annihilation of their export based economic model, and is hoping that their stimulus policies are going to buy more time (at the expense of U.S. treasury prices), are overlooked for the sake of pumping Rodger's latest book. Interesting...

Jun 19 10:21 PM

[Tom E.:]

I am short expatriot American money men in Asia. It will not be long before they are chased through the streets and stoned.

Jun 20 12:14 AM

[Maxe Paul:]

Same line from Rogers as usual, he forgot to mention Australia which (although i may be biased), has the strongest banks, all the commodities you could ever want then sells everything to China, massive farming land, a strong dollar, safe government and is yet to have a housing crash due to undersupply. Also we are basically considered part of Asia.

Why Rogers would want to live in Singapore when you can live in Aus? My guess is the generous tax breaks for foreigners.

Jun 20 10:14 AM

[yank:]

The Chinese have gotten the message about how the US routinely "takes down" commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) in an effort to support the US Dollar (USD) without having to raise interest rates. In a brilliant move, this week the Chinese announced they will be making major investments in US hedge funds. Their idea is to pledge US Treasuries as "collateral" in margin accounts. If the US stupidly tries to cap gold or silver prices, the drop in account value will trigger a margin call, causing the sale of the Chinese-owned Treasuries thereby weakening the USD. This is China's way of putting a gun to the head of the US and getting them to stop their ridiculous manipulation of commodity prices. The US is screwed.

Jun 20 10:49 AM

[coreopsis:]

Ever hear of the distinction between long-term/short-term?


On Jun 19 10:59 AM Larry House wrote:

> Rogers' views have been well known for some time. I don't see any
> new ones here. I don't understand how commodities might lead us
> out of this mess, as is mentioned. The stronger the prices of commodities,
> the higher the costs for consumers, hence the lower level of spending
> consumers can make on things in general. I think lower commodity
> prices would help to lead us out--not higher commodity prices. Am
> I missing something?

Jun 20 10:57 AM

[coreopsis:]

Grossly oversimplified. One $500 million announced commitment does not prove anything other than the Chinese are determined to pursue multiple strategies to achieve success (as well they should after witnessing the economy that the US has built on unrelenting consumption and leverage in the last decade). Of course, yanks tend to think of the 'one big idea' and a dichotomous world of black vs. white. In the genome there, I'm afraid.


On Jun 20 10:49 AM yank wrote:

> The Chinese have gotten the message about how the US routinely "takes
> down" commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) in an effort to support
> the US Dollar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) without having
> to raise interest rates. In a brilliant move, this week the Chinese
> announced they will be making major investments in US hedge funds.
> Their idea is to pledge US Treasuries as "collateral" in margin accounts.
> If the US stupidly tries to cap gold or silver prices, the drop in
> account value will trigger a margin call, causing the sale of the
> Chinese-owned Treasuries thereby weakening the USD. This is China's
> way of putting a gun to the head of the US and getting them to stop
> their ridiculous manipulation of commodity prices. The US is screwed.

Jun 20 11:02 AM

[wg:]

If rogers is so damn smart, how come I'm losing (and have been for more than a year) so many thousands of dollars in his vaunted Roger International Commodity Fund?

Jun 20 11:32 AM

[Sovestor:]

We think American assets are too attractive to pass. It is true that now US is debtor country, but many emerging countries are too. China has lots of debt too. US political and economic systems are generally sound and dynamic (they continuously learn and solve mistakes) We are bullish on American people and United States.

Jun 20 11:43 AM

[Sovestor:]

Jim Rogers is smart all right but he is not that smart compares to George Soros, John Paulson, and Seth Klarman. Rogers are simply trying to promote his commodity funds.

Jun 20 11:45 AM

[coreopsis:]

Maybe you didn't time your purchase properly? You know, the price at which you purchase an investment has quite a bit (really) to do with the return you receive. BTW, the return isn't fixed, so you might consider that it is possible it will change over time.

Have you thought of selling at a loss to match gains in otherwise overwelmingly successful portfolio?


On Jun 20 11:32 AM wg wrote:

> If rogers is so damn smart, how come I'm losing (and have been for
> more than a year) so many thousands of dollars in his vaunted Roger
> International Commodity Fund?

Jun 20 11:48 AM

[Alphameister:]

"Don't short stocks and do favor Chinese stocks" seems like a very sensible message to me.

Jun 20 12:17 PM

[change is t...:]

Rodgers' conclusions are fundamentally sound. His analysis, however, is so full of holes one wonders if he intentionally obfuscates. If Rodgers truly believes that "wealth" in a foriegn society comes from capital, his children will teach him why...."We hold these truths to be self evident..." is so important. The bill of rights is not despotism, there is a fundamental difference, and it matters.

Jun 20 01:23 PM

[INVESTGROUP:]

well wherever we are heading we might as well go the with a giant big as s smile with this one,, $utrm.pk

Jun 20 02:37 PM

[Tony Daltorio:]

The anti-Rogers, jingostic, wave the flag waving comments like from Sovestor are always amusing....

I'm bullish on everything but America.............

Jun 20 02:50 PM

[The Geoffster:]

Very clever.


On Jun 20 10:49 AM yank wrote:

> The Chinese have gotten the message about how the US routinely "takes
> down" commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) in an effort to support
> the US Dollar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) without having
> to raise interest rates. In a brilliant move, this week the Chinese
> announced they will be making major investments in US hedge funds.
> Their idea is to pledge US Treasuries as "collateral" in margin accounts.
> If the US stupidly tries to cap gold or silver prices, the drop in
> account value will trigger a margin call, causing the sale of the
> Chinese-owned Treasuries thereby weakening the USD. This is China's
> way of putting a gun to the head of the US and getting them to stop
> their ridiculous manipulation of commodity prices. The US is screwed.

Jun 20 03:19 PM

[backtoreality:]

WG..
If rogers is so damn smart, how come he was on tv calling BUCY the best buy in the market...this when BUCY was at 70..and then started to fall to 11 bucks..

His reason?...because BUCY makes the shovels to dig coal, and he said they couldn't make them fast enough to keep up with the demand from china.

Ha ha ha ha...the shanghai market was already on the skids, with the commodities soon to follow.
I don't think rogers has ever been on a farm, and I don't think he has been in China, and I don't think he was even born when the commodities crashed...in the 1930's.??? Hell no, the commodities crashed in 1929...I grew up on a farm in Minnesota at that time, and it was a game of survival...because of the "do nothing" approach of Herbert (george bush) Hoover...as Yogi said.."deja vu all over again"


On Jun 20 11:32 AM wg wrote:

> If rogers is so damn smart, how come I'm losing (and have been for
> more than a year) so many thousands of dollars in his vaunted Roger
> International Commodity Fund?

Jun 20 03:33 PM

[Nyetnichevo:]

Rogers is an egotistical, self promoting "talking head". He must've got caught short selling the recent bull rally, hence his statement "I am not shorting the USA market". He has some good ideas but has given up on his own country, and prefers to live in Singapore.
Good riddance. Blowhard in a bow tie. ( notice he never really discloses positions and is always talking his book which you must pay dearly for win or lose)

Jun 20 04:12 PM

[yellowhoard:]

Rogers is a big picture guy and has more patience than most of us.

There is no larger macro bet than buying farmland.

It is about as illiquid as any investment can get.

It takes big cajones to put an oversized portion of one's portfolio in farmland. Gotta respect the man for his convictions.

Jun 20 05:27 PM

[ALEXANDER R...:]

GREETINGS,
Some people never get. If you print more money to bail out the billionaires that lost millions and send the rest of us a $250 check to consume, buy Treasury bonds, stop unemployment, pay members of Congress's salaries with raises for spending more money every year than "We the People" can send them with our income tax return maybe someone in California can figure it out. Jim Rogers is so dumb. Maybe someone that does not know you cannot put #10 in a #5 bag can help Jim out. We will always be short commodities when you let the Fed print more and more dollars without nothing but "the full faith and credit" of the US government them. You see if you have one gallon of gas and you have one dollar you can buy one gallon of gas. When you have one gallon of gas and two of the new dollars you may still buy one gallon of gas. Oh, gas just went to $2.56 a gallon. That is what the $250 check you got is for. Now do you understand?
ALEXANDER RAINWATER

Jun 20 05:30 PM

[ALEXANDER R...:]

GREETINGS WG,

I worked with Jim one summer when he was making $2.00 an hour and his daddy was working for Bordens chemical plant. His folks knew the end of a mule to hitch the plow to. He also knew you cannot feed the mule from the wrong end and go very far.
ALEXANDER RAINWATER


On Jun 20 03:33 PM backtoreality wrote:

> WG..
> If rogers is so damn smart, how come he was on tv calling BUCY the
> best buy in the market...this when BUCY was at 70..and then started
> to fall to 11 bucks..
>
> His reason?...because BUCY makes the shovels to dig coal, and he
> said they couldn't make them fast enough to keep up with the demand
> from china.
>
> Ha ha ha ha...the shanghai market was already on the skids, with
> the commodities soon to follow.
> I don't think rogers has ever been on a farm, and I don't think he
> has been in China, and I don't think he was even born when the commodities
> crashed...in the 1930's.??? Hell no, the commodities crashed in 1929...I
> grew up on a farm in Minnesota at that time, and it was a game of
> survival...because of the "do nothing" approach of Herbert (george
> bush) Hoover...as Yogi said.."deja vu all over again"

Jun 20 05:45 PM

[ALEXANDER R...:]

GREENINGS,
Yes, all the expatroits will be run down the streets and thrashed about the head and shoulders with useless $100 bills. By the way, the Chinese are wiseing up they no longer save $.50 out of every $ to loan back to the US Treasury to buy T-Notes so that you can go to Wal-Mart and save 1.5 cents.
Us Americans Velly Smart.
ALEXANDER RAINWATER


On Jun 20 12:14 AM Tom E. wrote:

> I am short expatriot American money men in Asia. It will not be long
> before they are chased through the streets and stoned.

Jun 20 05:58 PM

[ArtfulDodger:]

Yank, good comment. I fear you are right. Another good reason to favor commodities at this point. Thanks for the comment.


On Jun 20 10:49 AM yank wrote:

> The Chinese have gotten the message about how the US routinely "takes
> down" commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) in an effort to support
> the US Dollar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) without having
> to raise interest rates. In a brilliant move, this week the Chinese
> announced they will be making major investments in US hedge funds.
> Their idea is to pledge US Treasuries as "collateral" in margin accounts.
> If the US stupidly tries to cap gold or silver prices, the drop in
> account value will trigger a margin call, causing the sale of the
> Chinese-owned Treasuries thereby weakening the USD. This is China's
> way of putting a gun to the head of the US and getting them to stop
> their ridiculous manipulation of commodity prices. The US is screwed.

Jun 20 06:10 PM

[Chancer:]

I have on occasion exhanged emails with Jim when he feels like answering with "one liners." We once had a brief debate about the prospects for good investment opportunities in Bolivia that he was quoted as saying when he was promoting his book about traveling the world on a motorcycle. As I lived in Bolivia and have closely monitored conditions there since I left, I disagreed with Jim stating my opinion that Bolivia was not then and not now a good place for investing.

With all due respect to Jim, I think his published positions are in places that he would like everyone else to buy in for big bucks thereby pushing up the value of his investments.

I also think his commentary and positions are interesting for trends (in his opinion) for average investors. But since Jim is a hedge fund guy, following what he does with real money is for large investors with large amounts of risk capital that they can afford to lose.

Jun 20 06:16 PM

[ArtfulDodger:]

Indeed, JR has had a similar view for the last ten years. He was a tad early, but proven right eventually. He did, however, miss a couple of huge equity moves in the US.

He's a little cynical in my view, but I believe he's right on China, the East in general, the US, definitely the UK, and commodities.

Although I own some farmland and have it worked, I'd say that view is a little far out there. From experience I wouldn't recommend buying farmland and having it farmed, unless you don't care to make money.

I suppose everyone knows about the currency meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia last week. Led by China they're determined to remove the dollar as the world currency, or at least reduce dependency on it.

What came of it I've not heard yet, mainly because the US was barred from appearing --- or at least asked not to come.

The main thing I like about Rogers is that he's humble and he puts his money where his mouth is.

Jun 20 06:21 PM

[User 422955:]

Don't invest in farmland unless you can wait decades, if need be, for the price to go up. No one knows what global warming (global climate change, or whatever you prefer to call it), will do to temperature and precipitation patterns. Even if the planet warms, on average, that doesn't imply that every place will warm.

Maxe Paul didn't mention that Australia has had five years of drought and heat waves. If this is just temporary, i.e., weather, then farmland prices will recover. If it is permanent, i.e., climate change, then Australia will have problems.

Jun 20 07:53 PM

[Steve Soden:]

I've followed Jim and his Bow Ties for years.
He knows what he's talking about, let's hope he's wrong...........

Jun 20 08:24 PM

[Tomcat101:]

I'm shorting the market and I'm going to make alot of money this fall. Things aren't really getting better. Just an eye in a hurricane.

Jun 20 09:16 PM

[mkreisel:]

I think this is going to happen if Roger's anticipated scenario really materializes.


On Jun 20 12:14 AM Tom E. wrote:

> I am short expatriot American money men in Asia. It will not be
> long before they are chased through the streets and stoned.

Jun 21 03:27 AM

[John Jackson:]

This comment is why all the comments regarding the USD and China are moronic because it overlooks the fact the the Chinese currency is not convertable. If the USD/Rem exchange rate was determined by markets then the Rem would have clearly appreciated by now. The key economic contradiction for China is that you can't preserve a huge dollar asset reserve and at the same time artificially fix the dollar/renminbi exchange rate.


On Jun 20 10:49 AM yank wrote:

> The Chinese have gotten the message about how the US routinely "takes
> down" commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) in an effort to support
> the US Dollar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) without having
> to raise interest rates. In a brilliant move, this week the Chinese
> announced they will be making major investments in US hedge funds.
> Their idea is to pledge US Treasuries as "collateral" in margin accounts.
> If the US stupidly tries to cap gold or silver prices, the drop in
> account value will trigger a margin call, causing the sale of the
> Chinese-owned Treasuries thereby weakening the USD. This is China's
> way of putting a gun to the head of the US and getting them to stop
> their ridiculous manipulation of commodity prices. The US is screwed.

Jun 21 05:17 AM

[rusticus:]

Not sure if I'm on board with Roger's agricultural play ... may be an impulsive reaction to hyperinflation fixation ... reality is that unemployed Americans could reduce their calorie intake by 50% and still be well nourished.

Jun 21 09:06 AM

[dcb:]

smart idea. Time for them to get active instead of being held hostage. To be honest I have more hope that they may actually be able to get some real reform in the US unlike our own government.


On Jun 20 10:49 AM yank wrote:

> The Chinese have gotten the message about how the US routinely "takes
> down" commodity prices (oil, gold, silver) in an effort to support
> the US Dollar (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) without having
> to raise interest rates. In a brilliant move, this week the Chinese
> announced they will be making major investments in US hedge funds.
> Their idea is to pledge US Treasuries as "collateral" in margin accounts.
> If the US stupidly tries to cap gold or silver prices, the drop in
> account value will trigger a margin call, causing the sale of the
> Chinese-owned Treasuries thereby weakening the USD. This is China's
> way of putting a gun to the head of the US and getting them to stop
> their ridiculous manipulation of commodity prices. The US is screwed.

Jun 21 09:41 AM

[dcb:]

Rogers essentially states there will be stagflation. Despite when Our government states I believe this is their intent as well. It is the only policy that makes their actions have sense.

They aren't going to reform anything, as we can see. The idea is simple: continue to get money to the bankers (their lobby money has paid for the service), transfer laibilities to the public, induce stagflation.

Let me be very clear both washington and bankers do not care about the over all economy. washington cares about doing just enough to get elected. Bankers care about making sure they will get their bonus and their income will be above the stagflation. The taxpayer will get screwed, those in power will say they couldn't see it comming, (just like housing bubble), and those in power will do just fine. Who cares if the dollar collapses if your dollar hedged. the public won't be, the bankers will.

Jun 21 09:47 AM

[dcb:]

no your comment is moronic. the dollar has gone steadily downward since the Euro was seen for 6 years except for this crisis.
Last summer the dollar was at historic lows, and with all the rally in the past year most of those gains have been lost in three months.

You have clearly chosen to believe the propaganda, or are some troll getting paid to state things like this over the internet. What happens if Americans start to realize what the world does and they get out of dollars as well. The goal is to allow the bankers to slowly get out of the dollar and then collapse it. You watch.


On Jun 21 05:17 AM User 434591 wrote:

> This comment is why all the comments regarding the USD and China
> are moronic because it overlooks the fact the the Chinese currency
> is not convertable. If the USD/Rem exchange rate was determined by
> markets then the Rem would have clearly appreciated by now. The key
> economic contradiction for China is that you can't preserve a huge
> dollar asset reserve and at the same time artificially fix the dollar/renminbi
> exchange rate.

Jun 21 09:55 AM

[dcb:]

We aren't even in the eye of the hurricane. The media reports what the government spins, the market is manipulated, and public opinion is controlled. We are in the hurricane. it will be going on a long time. Zero hedge has done extensive research on the market manipulation. The fed is leveraged up as much as the worst wall street bank. We, as a society, have allowed our government to transfer wall street risk to our countries balance sheet. this will let them off the hook and gut us like fish on a hook


On Jun 20 09:16 PM Tomcat101 wrote:

> I'm shorting the market and I'm going to make alot of money this
> fall. Things aren't really getting better. Just an eye in a hurricane.

Jun 21 09:59 AM

[dcb:]

I am sorry, I have not mentioned a third way of what will happen, but I think it should be discussed.
the banks will be allowed to manipulate the stock market to extreme ups and downs taking short and long positions to ensure their profits. this will be done through "dark Pools" taking positions and then driving the markets. they will earn themselves out of the problem at the expense of the tax payer.

I am not sure this gets the fed off the hook. this may be the only way the dollar does not get crushed as it ill benefit from "flight to safety" as world markets tend to follow lead of S&P.

If we do this three of four times they should have earned themselves out of trouble.

Jun 21 10:18 AM

[popey:]

The problem with Rogers is that we could be heading for a massive rally in the USD and Treasuries because of a new wave of fear, and secondary and tertiary waves of deleverging. If there is a further systemic earthquake, it could ironically be very bullish for USD short term. in fact there could be panic buying of the USD short term (12-24 months). Only after the final collapse of the US economy as we know it, will commodities enter the new bull cycle. Jim misses 3 chapters in the book and goes straight to the conclusions (final chapter).

Jun 21 11:42 AM

[MrZack888:]

Rogers thinks long term. Long term, the East will start consuming. That's why commodities will rise.

Jun 21 12:28 PM

[Rokjok777:]

I'm lucky enough to travel the globe extensively for work. In the last month I have been to New York, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, and Hong Kong. I suggest others on this site might do the same before deciding which countries to invest in. New York is past its prime, no question about it. Boarded up shops, every piece of infrastructure (sidewalks, streets, hiways, bridges) falling apart. Big skyscrapers from 10 years ago, oops the logo on the building says Lehman Bros. They don't take care of the people or the country, and it shows. Paris, gleaming and beautiful, they take care of the country and the people (same GDP per capita as the US, by the way). In Singapore I counted 47 huge cranes at work in one location, gleaming new architecture everywhere you look. Same story in China. Shops full of the emerging middle class, buying their first fashion clothes, their first apartments, their first cars. I was in one of the brand new office towers and needed a taxi. The guy behind the desk saw one driving by so he *ran out the door and down the street at top speed in the pouring rain to get it for me*. Every meeting I went to was full of people desperate to work, to learn, to get ahead. Invest accordingly.

Jun 21 01:08 PM

[Ponce:]

I do hope that someday people will wake up........

"No export, no recovery"... Ponce

Get ready for what will happen and not for what is happening because is to late for that now.

Jun 21 01:17 PM

[naidle:]

So by this over-simplification Dubai is in better shape than New York (or 85% of cities around the world).

Huh?


On Jun 21 01:08 PM Rokjok777 wrote:

> I'm lucky enough to travel the globe extensively for work. In the
> last month I have been to New York, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, and
> Hong Kong. I suggest others on this site might do the same before
> deciding which countries to invest in. New York is past its prime,
> no question about it. Boarded up shops, every piece of infrastructure
> (sidewalks, streets, hiways, bridges) falling apart. Big skyscrapers
> from 10 years ago, oops the logo on the building says Lehman Bros.
> They don't take care of the people or the country, and it shows.
> Paris, gleaming and beautiful, they take care of the country and
> the people (same GDP per capita as the US, by the way). In Singapore
> I counted 47 huge cranes at work in one location, gleaming new architecture
> everywhere you look. Same story in China. Shops full of the emerging
> middle class, buying their first fashion clothes, their first apartments,
> their first cars. I was in one of the brand new office towers and
> needed a taxi. The guy behind the desk saw one driving by so he *ran
> out the door and down the street at top speed in the pouring rain
> to get it for me*. Every meeting I went to was full of people desperate
> to work, to learn, to get ahead. Invest accordingly.

Jun 21 02:59 PM

[Bruce Pile:]

One could say Rogers never met a commodity he didn't like, but as you said in the above piece, he seems to dote on cotton, sugar, and silver now. He doesn't like IMF selling of gold, but silver and every edible thing that grows, he favors. Sugar may come into especially heavy demand as I wrote about in my Instablog post of today.

Jun 21 09:45 PM

[Tomcat101:]

I think that's why they call them "emerging" markets...


On Jun 21 01:08 PM Rokjok777 wrote:

> I'm lucky enough to travel the globe extensively for work. In the
> last month I have been to New York, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, and
> Hong Kong. I suggest others on this site might do the same before
> deciding which countries to invest in. New York is past its prime,
> no question about it. Boarded up shops, every piece of infrastructure
> (sidewalks, streets, hiways, bridges) falling apart. Big skyscrapers
> from 10 years ago, oops the logo on the building says Lehman Bros.
> They don't take care of the people or the country, and it shows.
> Paris, gleaming and beautiful, they take care of the country and
> the people (same GDP per capita as the US, by the way). In Singapore
> I counted 47 huge cranes at work in one location, gleaming new architecture
> everywhere you look. Same story in China. Shops full of the emerging
> middle class, buying their first fashion clothes, their first apartments,
> their first cars. I was in one of the brand new office towers and
> needed a taxi. The guy behind the desk saw one driving by so he *ran
> out the door and down the street at top speed in the pouring rain
> to get it for me*. Every meeting I went to was full of people desperate
> to work, to learn, to get ahead. Invest accordingly.

Jun 21 10:14 PM

[Tomcat101:]

We could go for years without eating anything as fat as we are as a country.


On Jun 21 09:06 AM rusticus wrote:

> Not sure if I'm on board with Roger's agricultural play ... may be
> an impulsive reaction to hyperinflation fixation ... reality is that
> unemployed Americans could reduce their calorie intake by 50% and
> still be well nourished.

Jun 21 10:17 PM

[punk_ash:]

Yes, you are missing something and probably Rogers himself. The commodities will get expensive in terms of all Fiat currency. I just do not see how anyone on the planet can get positive real returns for many years to come. I will be happy to get some positive nominal returns.


On Jun 19 10:59 AM Larry House wrote:

> Rogers' views have been well known for some time. I don't see any
> new ones here. I don't understand how commodities might lead us
> out of this mess, as is mentioned. The stronger the prices of commodities,
> the higher the costs for consumers, hence the lower level of spending
> consumers can make on things in general. I think lower commodity
> prices would help to lead us out--not higher commodity prices. Am
> I missing something?

Jun 22 12:31 AM

[punk_ash:]

Jim Rogers needs to calm down for a bit. Many of his plays last year took a severe beating, and could take a decade to get to 2008 levels. This is a no-mans territory and no one can predict what is next.

One thing will surely come handy - common sense and restraint.

Jun 22 12:33 AM

[ETF Grind:]

Rogers is a one of the great long-term investors, and as such his macro forecasts should carry great weight.

I wonder, though, if he that inflation could drive the stockmarket higher in nominal terms, even if its losing value in real terms.

Jun 22 12:41 AM

[Econ Base:]

".......Rogers thinks that the stock market will eventually hit new lows this year or next year after the bear market eventually subsides."

Need to stay conservative. Ensure you have adequate cash.........and back your cash with gold and platinum!
Read: portfolioforlife.blogs...

Jun 22 01:07 AM

[Peter Cooper:]

I wonder what he would make of the extremely bullish gold chart formation, see: arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
But he is probably right about silver, it looks even better.

Jun 22 02:20 AM

[Rokjok777:]

You make an excellent point! Countries that don't take care of their people or their infrastructure (America) are probably a better investment than those that do (Japan, Netherlands, etc.) I just wouldn't want to have to live there.

On Jun 21 02:59 PM naidle wrote:

> So by this over-simplification Dubai is in better shape than New
> York (or 85% of cities around the world).
>
> Huh?

Jun 22 05:04 AM

[Rokjok777:]

I stepped away for a minute and saw the following headlines side by side:
"40% of Americans Delaying Health Care Services Due to Cost"

side by side with:

"Goldman Sachs Paying Record Bonuses"


On Jun 21 02:59 PM naidle wrote:

> So by this over-simplification Dubai is in better shape than New
> York (or 85% of cities around the world).
>
> Huh?

Jun 22 05:09 AM

[Tack:]

So many comments indicating what an excellent long (really long)-term view of things JR has.

Here's another comment made by a famous economist about the long term:

"In the long run, we're all dead."

Jun 22 06:31 AM

[robinjoe:]

If you are a commodity producer then you make money. Farming, coal production, steel production etc. have been horrible businesses due to low prices. We need to get of the consumption only business. It isn't sustainable.


On Jun 19 10:59 AM Larry House wrote:

> Rogers' views have been well known for some time. I don't see any
> new ones here. I don't understand how commodities might lead us
> out of this mess, as is mentioned. The stronger the prices of commodities,
> the higher the costs for consumers, hence the lower level of spending
> consumers can make on things in general. I think lower commodity
> prices would help to lead us out--not higher commodity prices. Am
> I missing something?

Jun 22 08:30 AM

[robinjoe:]

I've said the same thing to him.

On Jun 20 12:14 AM Tom E. wrote:

> I am short expatriot American money men in Asia. It will not be
> long before they are chased through the streets and stoned.

Jun 22 08:33 AM

[rrtzmd:]

...Jim Rogers' thoughts???...I wouldn't pull two hairs off a fat rat's ass for a Jim Rogers' thought...at least not until I saw actual copies of the brokerage statements demonstrating clearly the extent to which he puts his money where his mouth is...the guy made his money 25 - 30 years ago while working with Soros and has not made a PROVEN dime since...he achieves credibility the same way your average psychic does -- speaks in broad generalities which are never substantiated with specific details...why not write an article called "Nostodamus shares his thoughts on the market"?...it would be just as credible!

Jun 22 08:33 AM

[coreopsis:]

dcb -- you are true Cassandra. Note the very few responses to your comments. I don't know if your knowledge is from work or experience, but your comments are spot on.

US capitalism has reached the stage where capital is driven by short-term profits which means the highest returns are essentially those which speculate on the ostensible economic activity of the 'real' (ie physical) economy. The restoration of the status quo, under this administration, through the support of US banks indeed spreads the downside of speculative (somewhat less levered) activities to Treasury and hence the taxpayer.

Unfortunately, we must accept this as there is no alternative to the US economic structure. We can 'join em' but engaging in trading financial instruments...but we can never return to a world where there are true 'blue chips' for long term portfolio building.


On Jun 21 10:18 AM dcb wrote:

> I am sorry, I have not mentioned a third way of what will happen,
> but I think it should be discussed.
> the banks will be allowed to manipulate the stock market to extreme
> ups and downs taking short and long positions to ensure their profits.
> this will be done through "dark Pools" taking positions and then
> driving the markets. they will earn themselves out of the problem
> at the expense of the tax payer.
>
> I am not sure this gets the fed off the hook. this may be the only
> way the dollar does not get crushed as it ill benefit from "flight
> to safety" as world markets tend to follow lead of S&P.
>
> If we do this three of four times they should have earned themselves
> out of trouble.

Jun 22 10:19 AM

[naidle:]

If you believe in the underlying message Rogers offers just invest in HAP and be done with it. That pretty much covers you for the next 10 years.

That is to say if you believe in his slightly bias message ;)

Jun 22 01:17 PM

[Sovestor:]

Jim Rogers is not as smart as you think. If he is smart, he would have been richer than George Soros.

Jun 22 03:12 PM

[AuGod!:]

Rogers is as good as any I suppose. Given his belief that things will get worse gives him a passing grade on my personal sanity test. Here is part of my reasoning. That U.S. corporate "insiders" are cashing out (divesting) at a rate unseen in two years and U.S. corporations are stingy on buy-backs - reducing stock repurchase by around 75% compared to the first quarter of 2008 and in addition have scaled back captial spending and dividend cuts. That means lean times are here and leaner times are coming. Now I'm no George Soros, Jim Rogers or even particularly bright so in my humble opinion a parcel of land for myself to grow vegies and maybe keep a milk cow plus some chickens would be my preferred level of investment. A few acres - 100 acres qualifies as a Farm for Tax purposes in Canada would be about right. I could lay in a few "organic" golf holes, ( but I am cautioned that one would need 200 acres minimum for an 18 holer) add some goats and sheep to keep the grass down plus a few dogs to watch and help herd the animals. But damned if I can find what land I need in downtown Toronto and I'm not moving so I guess that's out. Maybe a herb garden in my flat. Did I digress? Maybe garden plots in the city's parks should be rented out to those of us who are "freakin doomed" but green thumbed! Whoops, that lets me out. Can't garden but I accumulate slowly and hold some gold bullion. I guess I need a cute gal who can grow edibles and cook and likes the metal. I am not a big picture guy obvously but if Rogers is right about going forward, unlike Soros who thinks the worst is behind us, then we all can make our own decisions on what's right for us and our futures. Thank you for suffering through this rant. It's late Monday and my brain is numb from reading the article and all the comments. I will invite you all for dinner if I get my land and when society bites the big one. Don't forget to bring your clubs!

Jun 22 04:59 PM

[zinfool:]

Jim Rogers is no different than any other investor, in that he talks about what he's done, a little about what he's doing, and none about what he's thinking about doing for the future. As Wayne Gretzky said,"I go to where the puck is going, not where it is." We get to see where the puck is, what the current play is, but not where the puck is going. The trick, is to always be looking for where the greatest problems or dislocations are within the economic structure, and look for the best solutions. That has always been the means to the greatest gains. The solutions, to be usable and profitable, have to be in the current market cycle of technology.

The cell phone was developed 60 years ago, but it took multiple cycles for the technology and infrastructure to get in line with each other. A bet on cell phones in the too early cycles was a loser. So to in the area of alternative energy, I think we are one cycle away from the infrastructure catching up to the technology. Solar cells and wind energy have been around for a long time, technologies lead the application and infrastructure, from the smart grid, the localized generation and local use solution, and cost efficiency. Geothermal, however, appears to be this market cycles winner for alternative energy, and it's costs are about the same as gas, oil, and nuclear, but 2.5 times higher than coal. I am a believer in clean energy. Not for global warming, because I have yet to see the direct and absolute connection of mans pollution being on a large enough scale to overcome the global and solar influences and cycles. For me it is a health, welfare, security, and safety issue. The Planet will do what the Planet will do, Mankind is only one small part of this.

The puck is going to food, water, housing, infrastructure, cleaner environment, medical care, and population stabilization. That's for the 4 Billion people in developing countries, and in the developed countries they do not want to lose any of the above, and they want comfort, enjoyment, convenience, longevity, and pleasure in all it's forms.

Game on!

Jun 22 05:09 PM

[TERN:]

Farmland, yes, but if possible close to urban growth.

In the three BIC's by preference.

Jun 22 08:57 PM

[cowlady:]

Go, Joanito. Much more logical.

And whatever happened to investments in good, solid goods and services that serve real needs and purpose instead of just as a hedge and no matter what he hell it is? Food. Fine. People need to eat, but commodities as a hedge when no one can afford them? What good silver? Start a stockpile you one's basement. Great.


On Jun 19 10:21 PM Joanito wrote:

> So which is it ""I'm afraid they're printing so much money that stocks
> could go to 20,000 or 30,000. Of course it would be in worthless
> money, but it could happen and you could lose a lot of money being
> short." " or "To conclude, Rogers thinks that the stock market will
> eventually hit new lows this year or next year after the bear market
> eventually subsides."? Additionally, I do recall that commodities
> decided to come along for the ride to the bottom along with stocks.
> If anything, it has been proven that commodities are no hedge when
> the world is deleveraging the greatest credit fueled asset bubble
> of all time. Commodities are esepcially questionable in an evrironment
> where producers do not have as much pricing power. The only thing
> that higher commodities do here is to further squeeze business margins,
> causing more economic havoc. Also, I hear no mention of any potential
> ill effects of the loosening of lending policy in the developing
> markets. The world is teetering on the brink of true financial chaos
> as a result of an unruly debt bubbble in the west, but potential
> lending issues in Asia, which still has yet to come to grips with
> the annihilation of their export based economic model, and is hoping
> that their stimulus policies are going to buy more time (at the expense
> of U.S. treasury prices), are overlooked for the sake of pumping
> Rodger's latest book. Interesting...

Jun 22 11:03 PM

[cowlady:]

Forgot to commend Joanito on comment regarding how China has yet "to come to grips with the annihilation of their export based economic model...." so there is no easy-access parking space. The global economy is ruthlessly interdependent. It creates unprescented difficulties but also unpresceneted opportunities--but not for speculators.


On Jun 22 11:03 PM cowlady wrote:

> Go, Joanito. Much more logical.
>
> And whatever happened to investments in good, solid goods and services
> that serve real needs and purpose instead of just as a hedge and
> no matter what he hell it is? Food. Fine. People need to eat, but
> commodities as a hedge when no one can afford them? What good silver?
> Start a stockpile you one's basement. Great.

Jun 22 11:06 PM

[Peter Cooper:]

I would love the think he is right about the Dow but surely a capitulation phase is far more likely - why should it be any different this time when actually we have the worst fundamentals for several generations? Rogers might be right on hyperinflation but be ahead of his time as usual, see:
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
He always says he is the world's worst market timer!

Jun 23 02:36 AM

[bobbobwhite:]

I used to respect Rogers a bit, but after reading his world travel book, "Adventure Capitaist", I readily saw that he is just another moneyed fat cat who loves to revel in all the wonderful and unique things he can do and most others cannot just because he has lots of money to throw around, and then brag about it. Now he merely reminds me somewhat of another oblivious weirdo, Trump.

Rogers fell into mega-riches with Soros and the Quantum Fund, not entirely of his own work, and we tend to give him way more attention and credit than he deserves for what he actually did and knows. Many of his investments are truly off the wall arcane and oblique and seem to be mostly indulgent playthings for the ultra rich, and mostly done to occupy his vast idle time. He stated that the Dow may go to 30,000? Why does anyone listen to his increasingly surreal nonsense?

Jun 23 10:06 AM

[mtt04:]

After the greatest robbery of the 20th century of the taxpayers and the Banks/Corps pumping up the rally to sell shares to get out of TARP and every other taxpayer gift, as well as insider selling the most on record - it is very clear this fabrication is now being allowed to sink.

So the taxpayers get crushed and now the retail investors hold the bag. The last sucker in the room holds the empty rum bottle.

You have to admit it was a work of genius however it unethical it was.

Jun 23 10:24 AM

[Crude Oil T...:]

Sure, I'll go along with Jim's Ag call. But how long term does your mind set have to be to enter at this point. Once we get a ways into this correction we will surely start adding to a MOO position. But not right now. Retail investors and the CN....BS TV channels need to stop looking at people like Rogers as heroes because they make 20% on positions they sit on for years.

Jun 23 12:32 PM

[John Mylant:]

I am in agreement on two things here. First of all I am of the opinion that silver too is being neglected historically we have seen a rise in silver and I like its chances as a long term investment. Since there have been times where silver has grown in value much faster than the dollar, it might be a good long term investment considering where the printing of money is going. And that brings me to the second agreement with Mr Rogers I have.

How can we print money like we do and not expect it to inflate? We have nothing backing up our money but our good name. How long will that last? I see inflation coming. Silver is a good investment long term that I beleive will grow in value faster than the dollar. From 1971 to 1981silver grew in value 5 times its original value while the dollar lost half of its.

Buy silver.

Jun 23 01:43 PM

[Plan B Econ...:]

I hear similar stories from everyone I know who's been to Asia. They want it bad over there. They have the patience. And the government has the long-term plan to make it happen.


On Jun 21 01:08 PM Rokjok777 wrote:

> I'm lucky enough to travel the globe extensively for work. In the
> last month I have been to New York, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, and
> Hong Kong. I suggest others on this site might do the same before
> deciding which countries to invest in. New York is past its prime,
> no question about it. Boarded up shops, every piece of infrastructure
> (sidewalks, streets, hiways, bridges) falling apart. Big skyscrapers
> from 10 years ago, oops the logo on the building says Lehman Bros.
> They don't take care of the people or the country, and it shows.
> Paris, gleaming and beautiful, they take care of the country and
> the people (same GDP per capita as the US, by the way). In Singapore
> I counted 47 huge cranes at work in one location, gleaming new architecture
> everywhere you look. Same story in China. Shops full of the emerging
> middle class, buying their first fashion clothes, their first apartments,
> their first cars. I was in one of the brand new office towers and
> needed a taxi. The guy behind the desk saw one driving by so he *ran
> out the door and down the street at top speed in the pouring rain
> to get it for me*. Every meeting I went to was full of people desperate
> to work, to learn, to get ahead. Invest accordingly.

Jun 23 10:11 PM

[bobbobwhite:]

Rogers made his money in the unregulated hedge fund game of the 70's with George Soros. Nothing documented since then.....30 years! Those were the dark ages of unregulated investing, but through his constant grandstanding Rogers has now reached critical mass the same way Cramer and Kudlow et al have done......talk enough and get seen enough on TV about what you have done or say you have done and people start to listen, unfortunately, in all 3 cases, no matter how biased, off-the-wall or arcane it may be.

And all 3 pump shamelessly what they already own. Be cautious of following the advice of people who always eat their own cooking, and tout it endlessly as the only food in town. It is good sense to try something else, and often.

Jun 24 11:08 AM

[James Quinn:]

There is a way to stop the Obama juggarnaut.

theburningplatform.com...

Jun 24 01:44 PM

[swygert@law...:]

Good questions to Rogers. Responses too long range and dogmatic given all the non-anticipated events that always occur affecting the future course of economic conditions always change. However, given the rapidly growing national debt along with future entitlement obligations in an aging U.S., Rogers is probably correct regarding no way to come out of this without the transformation of our great country into an impoverished former world power -- indeed, a "de-merging nation."

Jun 24 01:53 PM

[Dean Morel:]

I have a lot of time for big picture thinkers like Rogers and Soros; however, bobbobwhite highlighted why it is dangerous to listen too closely. This article should have been titled "Jim Rogers Continues to Talk His Book".

Rogers is not an altruistic guy, he long ago established his positions in ag and commodities and now continues to talk them up so he can sell out and move on to his next big theme.

I have no position in silver, but that does appear to be the best advice coming from Rogers at the moment. The silver gold gap is historically large and should close.

Jun 24 06:33 PM

[James Davis:]

Rogers is the Mother Theresa of investment gurus.

He only gives you his wisdom out of a desire to help the downtrodden.

You are downtrodden, no?

Jun 24 06:40 PM

[James Davis:]

Yeah , Cramer made all his $$$ when he could rape and pillage too. He quit when the rules changed and the heat got too, uh, high.

TSCM , $2 garbage can. Investors pillaged.

Scandal with that nitwit Dykstra, pimping him out as an options guru when he was nothing but a ponzi schemer.

Surprised he has not been SUED yet for misrepresentation.


On Jun 24 11:08 AM bobbobwhite wrote:

> Rogers made his money in the unregulated hedge fund game of the 70's
> with George Soros. Nothing documented since then.....30 years! Those
> were the dark ages of unregulated investing, but through his constant
> grandstanding Rogers has now reached critical mass the same way Cramer
> and Kudlow et al have done......talk enough and get seen enough on
> TV about what you have done or say you have done and people start
> to listen, unfortunately, in all 3 cases, no matter how biased, off-the-wall
> or arcane it may be.
>
> And all 3 pump shamelessly what they already own. Be cautious of
> following the advice of people who always eat their own cooking,
> and tout it endlessly as the only food in town. It is good sense
> to try something else, and often.

Jun 24 06:44 PM

[cameroni:]

Really interesting stuff. This mirrors so many of my own beliefs.In particular though, a warning to avoid some inverse ETF's and shorting in the belief of a 1930's style stock market crash. This is very unlikely to be the case this time around with so much stimulus in the pipes.

If you must play inverse ETF's then do so sparingly and for short periods only. No long-term holds. Use your head. You really could end up losing your shirt if you are not careful. Although we are not truly inflationary now, that moment may not be so far off in the future.

A Dow at 20,000? That is not crazy thinking. If the dollar begins to weaken and devalue in any significant way (and it will) then the Dow will rise above that number. But big numbers don't mean big wealth in such a situation and you could easily be falling behind despite a rising market if you don't factor in the trend.

The excitement of gains must be tempered by inflation adjusting at all times, especially now as markets vacillate and this rudderless economy circles a sea of red ink and broken dreams.

Jun 24 07:40 PM

[Beyond Trading:]

J.Rogers in most recent comments say to be afraid of stocks going to 20,000 but expects market to hit new lows! Oh, please make up your mind. Isn't this same J.Rogers on TV who has been investing in commodities UYM all the way down 100 to 9? Please define commodities Gurus!

Jun 25 05:57 AM

[Plan B Econ...:]

Considering the average investor hasn't outperformed inflation over the past 20 years, I don't think there are many who are in a position to criticize others:

www.planbeconomics.com.../

Jun 25 07:51 AM

[Plan B Econ...:]

Agreed - one must take commentaries with a grain of salt. That should be standard.

But I am more willing to believe someone who talks their book (i.e. puts their money where their mouth is) than someone who simply makes money off transaction fees or AUM (e.g. brokers, investment managers).

Imagine if Jim Rogers was talking up agriculture but WASN"T investing in it himself. I think that situation would call for greater skepticism.


On Jun 24 06:33 PM Dean Morel wrote:

> I have a lot of time for big picture thinkers like Rogers and Soros;
> however, bobbobwhite highlighted why it is dangerous to listen too
> closely. This article should have been titled "Jim Rogers Continues
> to Talk His Book".
>
> Rogers is not an altruistic guy, he long ago established his positions
> in ag and commodities and now continues to talk them up so he can
> sell out and move on to his next big theme.
>
> I have no position in silver, but that does appear to be the best
> advice coming from Rogers at the moment. The silver gold gap is historically
> large and should close.

Jun 25 07:58 AM

[Darbyred:]

Rogers' living in Singapore or anywhere else, except Iran or North Korea or similar environments, should not be a consideration about the merits of his commentary. He is insightful and his remarks should be given fair, but critical, consideration, with the perspective of many other succesful investors and economists.

Jun 25 11:21 AM

[White Shield:]

Rogers, as with any analyst, puts forth ideas & opinions. Hopefully, in all genuiness. I will not "out" some of the other mouthpieces who have been less than forthright about their "vested interest" in opinions they "give" (errr...were paid for!).

It is up to "us" to use OUR OWN research and reasoning from there. I found found Jim to be a GREAT PLACE to start in that regard.

Jun 25 03:57 PM

[White Shield:]

Me me too too. :-)


On Jun 25 03:57 PM White Shield wrote:

> I found found Jim to be a GREAT PLACE to start in that regard.

Jun 26 09:07 AM

[jay fredric...:]

Everybody is an expert on this topic, including me. Take enough contrasting positions and we'll all be right half the time.

Jun 27 09:30 AM

[Gold Bug:]

US risks Hyperinflation The Government lies about it Jim Rogers
Source :
jimrogers1.blogspot.com

Oct 01 01:23 PM