Seeking Alpha
What is your profession? ×
Bonds, portfolio strategy, dividend investing, dividend growth investing
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)

Bond Gurus Jeff Gundlach of DoubleLine, and Bill Gross of PIMCO have started to make market calls that don't directly have to do with the direction of interest rates or which type of bonds provide the most value. Rather, they have both started to make market calls based on their understanding of how central bank monetary policy (something that they follow closely as bond investors) will impact the pricing of assets other than bonds

Gundlach's Investment Idea - Go long the Japanese Stocks, Short The Yen

Originally Announced: December 11th, 2012

What happened: The Japanese yen has lost about 20% of its value against the dollar and the Japanese stock market in dollar terms is up around 60%.

What does Gundlach currently think? In a May 15th interview with Reuters TV, Jeffrey Gundlach confirmed that he was still bullish on the Japanese stock market and predicted the Japanese equivalent of the S&P 500, the Nikkei 225 would rise from 15,000 to 17,000.

His exact words:

There's ample evidence that there's a correlation between equity strength in recent quarters and quantitative easing, but if that's the reason why you're playing the stock market, go to Japan because that's where they're doing QE full force.

How can one participate in this trade idea? This WisdomTree Japanese Hedged Equity Trade (DXJ) fund tracks the Nikkei 225, hedging out the exposure to the Japanese yen. In other words, if the Nikkei rises by 10%, you will be up close to 10% regardless of what is happening to yen.

Bill Gross's Investment Idea - Buy Gold

Originally Announced: January 21st, 2013

What happened: Gold was trading around $1600 per ounce when the trade was announced. Its since tumbled about 15% to below $1400 per ounce.

What does Gross think now?

(click to enlarge)

How can one play this trade idea: Bill Gross specifically recommends buying SPDR GOLD Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD).

Understanding The Thinking Behind The Ideas of Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross

Jeff Gundlach's trade idea is very simple. When a central bank starts aggressively printing money, their currency should weaken and their stock market will tend to rise. This is supported by both basic macroeconomic theory and recent experience.

When a central bank "prints money" in reality, they are buying bonds with their cash reserves. This does two things in the short run: it decreases the amount of bonds available to be owned and increases the amount of cash in the hands of investors. Some of that cash goes into the stock market, pushing up the prices of shares and some of it leaves the country pushing down the value of its currency.

The first major central bank to start aggressively printing money was the U.S. Federal Reserve. On November 25th, 2008, the Fed announced its first money printing a/k/a QE1. Since then there has been QE2 and QE3. Both QE1 and QE2, were limited short-term initiatives. The big difference with QE3 was its open ended nature. Basically with QE3, the Federal Reserve has said it is going to keep printing money until the U.S. economy gets better.

Since November 25th, 2008 the U.S. stock market has been on a tear. The S&P has risen from around 900 to 1650, an all time high. This is right in line with economic theory. During this time, the U.S. dollar has been topsy-turvy against the euro. However, as theory would suggest, the dollar had gained tremendously against the yen until Japan started its money printing.

While the U.S. started printing money five years ago, Japan has only started within the last year, really the last six months. Gundlach has every reason to believe that what has happened in the U.S. will happen in Japan. In fact, its even more true for Japan because a weaker currency caused by printing money has major economic benefits for Japanese companies which will now be able export more.

The gold trade recommended by Bill Gross is also based in economic theory. Printing "excessive" amounts of money should cause inflation. The classic example is pre-World War II Germany where the government literally printed money to pay its bills. As a result, Germans would see the prices that they paid for basic items like bread change during the course of a day. While inflation over the last few years has been very mild in the U.S., hovering around 2% per year, Bill Gross has been predicting that there will be major inflation over the next several decades. During periods of rapid inflation, Gold tends to rise in value, keeping up with or even outpacing inflation.

For more investment ideas from investors like Bill Gross and Jeff Gundlach go here.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.