It is hard to find much positive in the World Bank’s grim economic outlook for emerging economies. True, the Bank did increase its estimate of China’s growth to 7.2% from 6.5% this year, but that is not enough to make much difference. Developing countries are expected to grow by only 1.2% this year, after 8.1% growth in 2007 and 5.9% growth in 2008.
When China and India are excluded, GDP in the remaining developing countries is projected to fall by 1.6%, causing continued job losses and throwing more people into poverty.
Global growth is also expected to be negative, with an expected 2.9% contraction of global GDP in 2009. Global GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2% in 2010 and 3.2% by 2011. In developing countries growth is expected to be higher, at 4.4% in 2010 and 5.7% in 2011, albeit subdued relative to the robust performance prior to the current crisis.
The report documents one depressing statistic or graphic after another.
A few samples: