Today in Commodities: Strong Like Bull

Day 1 of FOMC , decision day tomorrow at 2:15pm EDT. Although we expect no change in rates, we will be interested in their rhetoric. Treasury complex higher ahead of the FOMC meeting, we would suggest using this strength as a long trade targeting 118′18 in 30-yr bonds and 116′16 in 10-yr notes.

US dollar down over 100 points today with international currencies benefiting. We missed this for clients but will attempt to get in on the next reflex move. Our preference is to be a buyer of the Loonie and Aussie from lower levels.

The correction in crude did not last that long, we advised clients to book a profit yesterday. We did expect further downside, but that cannot happen with a weaker dollar.

As far as natural gas we still like September and October $1 call spreads. Right now we suggest the October $5/6 spread for $2300.

Aggressive traders may wish to get long December corn and November soybeans with stops below yesterday’s lows; in corn 400′0, in soybeans 970′6.

We like the action in gold and silver today! The end of day numbers were not as impressive of the daily action, August gold up $5, July silver higher by 14 cents.

We advised clients to buy September cocoa futures today; filled at 2488, stops at 2460 targets 2515, 2530, 2570. Sugar was higher by 5.25% today, we advised clients to buy yesterday. Did you get in on this breakout today?

Comments

[tunaman4u2:]

For a small investor like myself... what is the best site\program\vehicle to trade the commodities you speak of?
Thanks

Jun 23 05:54 PM

[rick12345:]

I like gold and silver as well, but when the US sponsored World Bank comes out and makes blatantly obvious statements designed at lifting the dollar, I start to get cold feet (my main gripe here is that the world bank/media could have handled it a bit more tactfully). God only knows why markets around the world fell sharply yesterday when the announcement was merely a reiteration of what the IMF stated a month ago. In actual fact, their forecast was slightly more pessimistic at 3%.
I also like copper which has been sliding for a while; 2010 copper looks very promising.
In reality oil can't stay much higher than $80 unless there is a massive shortage. I'd be shorting once the price goes above these levels.

Jun 23 05:54 PM

[Missing_Link:]

I don't like any of these right now. I use 7 technical indicators and at least 6 of these are pointing down right now for each of GLD, SLV, DBC, and GSG. I don't think the bear run is over for these yet.

Jun 23 06:42 PM

[Matthew Bra...:]

Call or email me directly and I can show you the managed futures programs we work with or some of the plays we are suggesting to our broker assisted clients


On Jun 23 05:54 PM tunaman4u2 wrote:

> For a small investor like myself... what is the best site\program\vehicle
> to trade the commodities you speak of?
> Thanks

Jun 23 07:33 PM

[rick12345:]

Technical indicators at the moment would suggest that you sell everything except long term bonds. Investment banks are short all commodities at present, so naturally they will manipulate the market lower. Feels like a good buying opportunity to me. As someone recently informed me, "never buck the trend" and the long term trend is upwards.


On Jun 23 06:42 PM Missing_Link wrote:

> I don't like any of these right now. I use 7 technical indicators
> and at least 6 of these are pointing down right now for each of GLD,
> SLV, DBC, and GSG. I don't think the bear run is over for these
> yet.

Jun 24 02:23 AM

[rick12345:]

I'm sorry, but it all seems a little too suspicious to me when the world bank makes negative announcements the day before a huge bond auction. Remarkably, this comes on the back of an IMF upgrade for many advanced economies. Judging by some of the word bank's previous forecasts, i'll stick with the IMF.

Jun 24 03:00 AM

[drbob101:]

Hiu Matthew,

I am a private futures trader. Do you have an advisory newsletter or service to follow your suggestions real time?

Thank you

On Jun 23 07:33 PM Matthew Bradbard wrote:

> Call or email me directly and I can show you the managed futures
> programs we work with or some of the plays we are suggesting to our
> broker assisted clients

Jun 24 08:21 AM

[Matthew Bra...:]

Not real time. We do have discount services or broker assisted accounts though. I write a daily blog usually around 3:30 pm est. a weekly commentary that is published Monday mornings and generally 2 research articles per month.


On Jun 24 08:21 AM drbob101 wrote:

>
> Hiu Matthew,
>
> I am a private futures trader. Do you have an advisory newsletter
> or service to follow your suggestions real time?
>
> Thank you
>
> On Jun 23 07:33 PM Matthew Bradbard wrote:

Jun 24 08:28 AM

[Maxe Paul:]

Try IG markets if you are not a US citizen, small contract sizes in all the markets. If your a US citizen, tough luck i guess!


On Jun 23 05:54 PM tunaman4u2 wrote:

> For a small investor like myself... what is the best site\program\vehicle
> to trade the commodities you speak of?
> Thanks

Jun 24 08:46 AM

[AndrewBaker:]

I too like natural gas, softs, gold, silver and cocoa, and am long in all; but it is pretty volatile along the way, and the dollar affects prices somewhat also. I used to trade in and out but with current volatility I find the trading costs are just too much, so now am taking a longer view. With that in mind, I'm short copper, and staying there for a while too.

Jun 24 11:41 AM

[Shalom Hamou:]

The reason Oil Rises is the shape of the yield curve:

The Commodity Conundrum Solved!
The Hidden Parameter in Interest Rates.

blog.yield-curve.net/2...

Jun 25 07:57 AM