Relatively Flat Market Awaits Wednesday's FOMC Decision

May’s existing home sales came in slightly ahead of the previously reported month and the Treasury auction went smoothly. Yet, with the market awaiting Wednesday’s FOMC statement and interest rate policy decision, neither was enough to change the trajectory of the market. Tuesday’s trading session was slightly choppy and the close was relatively flat.

Positive industry breadth favored Monday’s oversold coal, precious metals, gold mining, steel, autos, and basic materials stocks. Telecom also represented some of Tuesday’s winners. Lagging the market were defense, retail, consumer services, utilities, and home construction industries.

There are no changes in Tuesday’s trend analysis table. The short-term trend for the DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM all remain down. The QQQQ is the only index that is flashing a primary uptrend, but it is also losing its momentum.

Below is Tuesday’s market summary, market conditon and trend analysis, and support and resistance tables:

Market Summary

• The DIA closed down -0.17% @ $83.18 and $0.53 below its high and $0.33 above its low on volume -41.16% below its average volume. Daily PMI* is @ 38.37.
• The SPY closed down +0.08% @ 89.35 and $0.53 below its high and $0.50 above its low on volume -25.23% below its average volume . Daily PMI* is @ 48.54.
• The QQQQ closed down -0.23% @ 35.00 and $0.25 below its high and $0.24 above its low on volume -16.55% below its average volume. Daily PMI* is @ 48.98.
• The IWM closed down -0.81% @ 49.09 and $0.85 below its high and $0.07 above its low on volume -25.63% below its average volume. Daily PMI* is @ 7.61.

(*PMI measures and indicates strength of the underlying security’s trading range on a scale of 1-100.)

Market Condition and Trend Analysis

ETF Index	Market Condition	Short-Term	Intermediate	Primary
DIA	neutral	down	up	down
SPY	neutral	down	up	down
QQQQ	neutral	down	up	up
IWM	neutral	down	up	down

Technical Support & Resistance Levels for Wednesday, June-24-2009

Index	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
DJ-30	7877.88	8130.30	8226.60	8382.72	8479.02	8635.14	8887.56
SP-500	874.56	884.39	889.74	894.22	899.57	904.05	913.88
Nadaq	1717.83	1741.63	1753.27	1765.43	1777.07	1789.23	1813.03
Russ-2k	476.19	483.97	486.87	491.75	494.65	499.53	507.31
VIX	22.56	26.27	28.43	29.98	32.14	33.69	37.40

Index ETF	Ticker	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
DJ-30	DIA	81.53	82.39	82.78	83.25	83.64	84.11	84.97
SP-500	SPY	87.30	88.33	88.84	89.36	89.87	90.39	91.42
NASDAQ-100	QQQQ	34.03	34.52	34.77	35.01	35.26	35.50	35.99
R2K	IWM	47.51	48.43	48.76	49.35	49.68	50.27	51.19

Sector ETF	Ticker	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
Consumer Discretion	XLY	21.56	21.95	22.08	22.34	22.47	22.73	23.12
Consumer Staples	XLP	22.28	22.51	22.58	22.74	22.81	22.97	23.20
Energy	XLE	44.63	45.78	46.41	46.93	47.56	48.08	49.23
Financials	XLF	10.87	11.16	11.32	11.45	11.61	11.74	12.03
Health Care	XLV	24.93	25.26	25.40	25.59	25.73	25.92	26.25
Industrials	XLI	20.49	20.88	21.07	21.27	21.46	21.66	22.05
Materials	XLB	23.57	24.28	24.67	24.99	25.38	25.70	26.41
Technology	XLK	17.23	17.44	17.56	17.65	17.77	17.86	18.07
Telecom	IYZ	17.32	17.53	17.64	17.74	17.85	17.95	18.16
Utilities	XLU	26.29	26.76	26.96	27.23	27.43	27.70	28.17

(Please click here to see graphs in original format and better visual interpretation of Tuesday’s results.)

Disclosure: Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

Comments

[Mad Hedge F...:]

Snore, All eyes will be on the Fed interest rate decision today, but your time will be better spent watching the NBA finals, the US Open, or Wimbledon, which you have wisely Tivo’d for days like this. US industrial capacity utilization is terrible, and still falling, while unemployment is still rising at a record pace. Sure, commodity prices have doubled this year, but the give back there has already started. The buying that did occur happened because investors were looking for an alternative to the sick dollar, not because there is huge underlying demand by end users. This is one of the reasons why I became cautious about all of my long positions last month (see www.madhedgefundtrader...). So I can say with complete confidence that the chances of an interest rate hike are less than zero for the foreseeable future.

Jun 24 07:56 AM

[cynewulf:]

It's not easy, sitting still at the table. You want something to happen,but you're afraid it's going to be a slow summer.

Jun 24 08:44 AM

[ksmithdc:]

Interesting read, thanks.

Jun 24 10:06 AM