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Executives

Eric Ludwig – Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Glu Mobile Inc. (GLUU) Stifel Nicolaus Internet, Media & Telecom Conference Call May 21, 2013 2:05 PM ET

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Can you hear me? Okay. So we’re pleased to welcome the management team of Glu Mobile. Glu is a leading global developer and publisher of freemium games for smartphones and tablet devices. Joining us today from Glu is Eric Ludwig, the company’s CFO. Eric is going to run through some prepared remarks and we’re going to do a fireside chat and some Q&A and we’ll save sometime at the end for your questions. So with that I’m going to ask Eric to start.

Eric Ludwig

Thank you, Drew. So I think I’ve got about 10 minutes of prepared slides to go through the company’s competitive position and where the growth drivers are and then we’ll go from there into the Q&A, fireside chat. So, Glu at a high level is a mobile gaming company focused on the growth of mobile devices, tablets and phones and also the business model we’re focused on is the freemium business model. And right now, the smartphone gaming market is exploding and we’re very early in the adoption curve. So today there is about 5 billion mobile devices across the globe and about a 1.3 billion are smartphone devices.

So there is still a lot of meat on the bone in terms of growth both in the U.S. and emerging markets for replacement of smartphones. And the two screens that we are focused on phones and tablets are substantially bigger growth drivers than the other platforms of PCs and laptops. So at a high level, I think some of our competitors EA and Zynga are both going through some transitions, transitions in terms of the digital revenue EA’s case, odd in Zynga’s case they’re transitioning from Facebook to mobile gaming revenue and Glu is already there.

We’ve only been doing mobile gaming revenue. We made the transition from feature phone to smartphones, over the last four years and you could see our revenue dropped out three years ago and we’ve now seen strong growth as our feature phone business has now anticipated and the 90% plus of our revenue is coming from smartphones. The other treasures we also made over the last three years has been a transition from brand content to original content and consequently the increase in our gross margins from low 70s to low 90s.

And looking at the ecosystem, Glu has been in the mobile industry for 12 years and along with this comes and great expertise, across its distribution channels. And this is a very complex sector in those 12 years of operating history helps us at all levels, at the distribution level and getting our games on to all our different distribution platforms as a technology layer in linking up to the different social networks, game center and Facebook et cetera. And then also when we launch our titles, we’re launching them on over a 1,000 devices both iOS and Android, Android has 700 plus devices on the marketplace. And then lastly, localization, we localized all of our game titles in 10 plus countries at launch along with the 1,000 handsets, along with the various distribution channels.

So because of all business support that we do for the distributors, our games could feature adversely every time it launched. And another key aspect that company has built up over time has been our user base. We now have 40 million monthly active users and consumers playing our games on a monthly basis. In the month of March, we had 3.9 million people on average that play one of our games each day in a month of March.

And we talk a lot about, I’m sure Drew will ask questions about our progression on improving our monetization. And in the first half of this year we put up some good early success point in terms of monetization. We had a couple of titles Heroes of Destiny and Dragon Storm that had double or more than double our average ARPDAU. We’ve also taken in player versus player title added some deep PvE, player versus environment progression and that would became quite successful and we’ve really peaked up our studio and sales and marketing, publishing hires to focus on this area.

So that the key future growth drivers for us, first is really around the Social Gaming 2.0 arena, we talked about for the last two quarters. Then in the first Social Gaming 1.0 that was typified by games that were resource management titles that had two-minute session time where the primary social graph was (inaudible) as a driver and you can really nail those games with maybe one or two of these pillars.

Where we think the market is going is requiring games to have really at the core great game play, having production values that are much higher graphically in intensive games and having broad consumer reach. And this is not only just on the devices iOS and Android phones and tablets, but also in the native languages as you roll it out across the different and various app stores in countries and then lastly deep monetization systems. Glu has nailed the first three of these. All of our games are great at their core game play and as evidenced by our 4.5 star plus review. The production values, we’ve always and only been doing 3D in the last three years and we’ve also always and only been doing phones, tablets, iOS, Android on 700 plus devices in 10 plus languages and where the big focus for us has been on improving the deep complex monetization.

I think the other thing that we launched about four months ago was this new third party publishing and this is not a new thing in the gaming industry. But when you think about Glu, we’ve got sales G&A. We’ve got sales and marketing and what we really need is more shots on goal. And so this was a way for us to take more shots on goal without having to invest in new development teams.

And what we’re doing is we’re going out to top titles in top companies in China and Korea and Japan where they’re focused just on those titles in those countries and we’re helping them to get western markets faster. And this is a very compelling store that we have to offer given we’ve been in the mobile industry for 12 plus years. We’re able to help them on marketing a lot of operations, business intelligence, et cetera. Help them, get them to all those devices I talked about, help getting those titles quarters there is multi languages as well as getting in distributed on all the various communications of Android and iOS along with getting featuring in those native language countries.

So we’ve already signed two contracts and one binding LOI and that’s up from one contract and two binding LOIs about two weeks ago. We’ve also staffed up and fully hired our team on the third-party publishing team and we’re continuing to put to grow this pipeline of opportunities and we expect to have six titles launched this year by the end of this year to be live globally. And the key here is that these are titles that are already in the top chart or for the most part in the top chart. And so we’re bringing a successful title already in one country in westernizing and bringing it to the U.S. markets.

And so where Glu sees ourselves in a couple of year timeframe is a world of the quad screen. Today, we’re already on phones and tablets. We’ve also got a limited launches of titles on the MacOS App store. So sensibly, we’re already a three screen company. But today, we’re developing games that are already playable on the Retina display to the iPad. And on those iPads, Retina display, there is more pixel density than there is in an HDTV. And so you could already play on the Apple TV, a Glu game up on a big 15 inch screen TV and that looks fantastic. So once the gaming companies and the platforms figure out the controller for those games and the App store for the TV, we will be there when those come out of launch.

And so this combination of third-party publishing as well as the three screen opportunity is really how we’re going to de-risk our franchises and bringing them across these multi-screens. So the first titles will come on to these phones and tablets and then as we get success, the successful titles we’ll get to the next third screen and then the most successful titles that we’ll require some more development work; we’ll bring to the quad screen as well.

So kind of wrapping up before we go to Q&A, we’ve seen strong secular growth trends in the industry. We’ve really seen margin improvements with our regionalized teams and we think we’re well positioned for a Social Gaming 2.0. So with that let me sit down and we can go into fireside chat.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

So I want to start with freemium. I think we could argue it has become or at least fast emerging the gaming communities format of choice. Maybe three quarters 80% of games on iTunes are free-to-play. It’s about 80% of your revenue. Where are we in terms of the evolution of the freemium model?

Eric Ludwig

Sure, so the freemium model has been around for 10 plus years in the gaming sector. China was the first to really embracive back seven, eight years ago when Thomson’s not allowing the Chinese market into combat, we have piracy et cetera, there were service side games and with this virtual good economy. So that had taken hold and they built billion dollar companies with billion dollar revenue streams years ago.

Then came the Facebook five plus years ago and built a pretty vibrant market for a while. And then it was kind of a forgotten conclusion that mobile would go that route as well as the console when the console gaming companies are heading in that route. So I think it’s here, I think it’s here to stay. It is the lion’s share of my revenue and once I run off my feature phone business, it will be the 90% plus in our revenues in the foreseeable feature.

But I think what’s interesting when if a different model happen to come along, Glu just showing as depth as being able to pivot, so we can easily pivot to if there was a X have premium and have premium, we would evolve with these sectors. But right now we think this is the model that is taking hold and showing longevity in the long tail.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. And I think you made referenced in your prepared remarks, you’ve had 50 or so short time goal under this model. Then what gives you conviction that the free-to-play your freemium model, the right model for Glu?

Eric Ludwig

Yeah, it’s a great question. I think that yes we’ve got a lot of short time goals in the freemium model. And I would say Glu 1.0 in freemium was really single player, not very social freemium games. And we did a relatively good job, didn’t have any home runs, so we’ve got a lot of doubles and triples in baseball parlance to that where the market is going and where Glu is going is really focusing on more, more social interactivity with games that have consumables, whereas in the freemium single player games, we don’t have lot of durable lines. We’re selling a weapon and you got the weapon forever, where we’re heading to now is much more in the games, the service that we’re transitioning to a lot more consumables to buy and give away the razor blade – razor and sell the razor blade for charge. It’s heading more towards a consumable model within the premium for Glu in the 2.0 session.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. And you made reference this in your remarks as well the four pillars of core gaming that you described to achieve or accomplish…

Eric Ludwig

Yeah.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

You’re engaging the core game play, its production values, consumer reach those first three really hit on…

Eric Ludwig

Yeah.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

It’s the final piece which is monetization, can you talk a little more in detail as to what the company is doing to better position itself to improve monetisation.

Eric Ludwig

Sure. Certainly we’ve talked a lot about this in the last nine months, first is about hiring. So we hired a new President of Studios, Matt Ricchetti who’s got eight years of deep monetisation on freemium games is the Kabam most recently – he was heading at their mobile efforts. Previous to that was in Zynga running a few of the products online and then before that was at EA, Pogo.com doing something early as to the freemium social gaming.

So he was the anchor tenant, so to speak and then since the last six months, we’ve hired about 25 plus people and then continue to ramp in changing and adding the DNA around mutual experience, around monetization et cetera. That’s our point number one.

Point number two, I’d call it the first batch of products, the first half 2013 products that were, either are half way ready or half way done before we hired Matt and his team. But they got some focus from the team. And there we had some improved points that I talked about, where you’re seeing improvements. So the Heroes of Destiny title that did more than double our average ARPDAU unit launch and had a reasonable amount of revenue. So this was a decent double or triple in terms of based on products with double the ARPDAU for us.

We had other titles like Dragon Storm that actually had triple the ARPDAU relative slower DAU base. We had updates like Contract Killer 2 where it was a live title already that we’ve spent a lot of time and effort to improve with Mystery Box and other monetization techniques. And so I think we had some early proof points that no barn buster proof points. And then the second half of the year would be the titles that will have had either a full product cycle with the new monetization team or virtually an entire product cycle and those titles will be coming out in the third and the fourth quarter with substantially improved player versus player mechanics and other premium monetization techniques.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. And ARPDAU is obviously a very important metric that we follow on the research side. can you talk about the sensitivity of the model to improving ARPDAU, your ARPDAU is in the mid single-digit range called $0.05 to $0.08.

Eric Ludwig

Yep.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

A number of your competitors are much higher than that. talk about how listing that ARPDAU would provide a list of profitability for the company?

Eric Ludwig

Yes, so let’s think about monetization, so let me step it back to the one called, there’s four things of monetization. first, the premium model can we get users, and can you get users cheaply or free? Secondly, can you retain those users? And then thirdly, can you convert some of those users into buyers and then how much do you extract from those buyers?

So Glu is industry leading getting a lot of users, the last eight quarters we had between 40 million and 50 million downloads each and every quarter. and we only spend about 18% on marketing; all of that marketing spend has been on user acquisition.

So when you kind of know how much you can afford to spend on users let’s say in the market, we’re buying less than 10% of our user base. So we’re getting a vast number of users. our retention is good, it’s not industry leading, but it is about industry’s average in terms of first day, 7-day, 30-day retention. so we don’t need to focus on improving those first two buckets.

Where we fall under the industry is in terms of the conversions of free player into a paid player, and they were a 0.5% to 0.7% of users converged and some of the industry, the rest is converting at 1.5% to 2% in the Far Eastern Japan they were at 10%, which may not be extrapolatable to the rest of the world. So we’re under-investing on that component.

And then how much do we extract in terms of money? our average lifetime value is $0.50 to $1 in terms of our games to some of our competitors are at $5 plus. So it could be either attacking the conversion and keeping the ARPDAU flat or attacking the LTV and keeping the conversion flat, and we’re focusing on all of those, we kind of focus on increasing retention, increasing the percent that converged, and then ultimately trying to increase the amount that we extract out of the user on average revenue per daily user.

So yes, some of our competitors are higher ARPDAU, but also because our games historically have been more single player, very like social, and we saw this trend changing over the last year slightly by GameSpy back in August 2012 to help build that social layer.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Can you talk a little bit – I was going to ask you about GameSpy has been strategically a very important acquisition or you hope it will be…

Eric Ludwig

Yeah.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Going forward, can you share with us a little bit the GameSpy acquisition, what it means to improving monetization going forward?

Eric Ludwig

Yeah. So GameSpy, they were a company that was owned by IGN, which is owned by News Corp. and for 12 years, they had helped power console in DS and PSP companies in doing real-time game play, leader board, voice chat, text chatting, so really powering a social element within a game.

Glu was very much lacking that and a lot of our competitors got a leg up in mobile came from Facebook where they already had that technology layer build out. So we knew we need to either build or buy that technology, and I think we did a great transaction. We paid $2.6 million for the company itself and within 100 days, we’ve realized back $2.6 million of cash via cash that was given to us towards the acquisition, as well as AR collection in the legacy.

So we paid for the business within 100 days and we’ve been able to use our technology into our title at least by on a perspective basis, so that really is the foundation of our technology for us to go the games and service. And when I use games and service, it’s really what we meant by buying games by or building games that are social, interactive, allows for either (inaudible) in place, synchronous realtime multi-player either with your social graph people you know or with unknown players across the globe being able to play. So there’s power in all that technology.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. Shifting gears, looking at fiscal 2013 game play, seven titles released in the first quarter, you pushed a couple, killed a couple for the second quarter. I think you have one game you launched at the end of the period and more of a back half weighted year, I think five titles. Just kind of walk us through how you’re thinking about the fleet as you look ahead? What the strategy is?

Eric Ludwig

Yeah, I think it’s two-fold. We have two legs to our product development stool, one is internal studios, which we’ve been doing for the last 12 years and the second is the third-party publishing. So you’re right. We’re launching five games at the back half of this year. One is at very end of June and then four in the balance of the year from our internal studios.

And then we’re anticipating launching at least six third-party publishing titles. I think we said in earnings call that we’ll launch two in the third quarter and in the balance either late in the third quarter or in the fourth quarter. So I think it’s a combination of proven third-party publishing titles that are coming to the Western markets for the first time as well as the much deeper PvP, PvE games incorporating the deep monetization, I talked about as well as incorporating the GameSpy technology that we purchased and now have productized.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

And you updated guidance in conjunction with earnings a couple of weeks back, a loss of $4.7 million to a loss of $6.0 million adjusted EBITDA.

Eric Ludwig

Yes.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

What are the keys to achieving – potentially exceeding that number, what is the downside risk falling below that number?

Eric Ludwig

Sure, yeah, so I think that is a pretty cautious guidance for the second quarter given typically 15% to 20% of my current quarter revenue coming from titles launching in that quarter, and so when we decided to push two titles in the second to third quarter and we only have one title that is less than a week of contribution in the quarter hence no reason for the separate Q2 guidance.

And then obviously to bisect the U.S. and substantial growth coming from both those internal titles and the execution on the third-party publishing, so I think the upside in the model as we’ve always talked about as we have any real-money gambling revenue of materiality.

We’ve said publicly that that’s not in the numbers. I think that’s an opportunity, secondly if we have a better than expected ratio on the third-party publishing titles. Remember, these are titles that are already live in the Chinese or Korean app stores and are already in the top 100 growth for the most part on this. There are already improving titles and the only question is can they translate to the Western market.

So I guess the downside risk will be whether they don’t translate to the Western markets and we’ve seen enough titles that do translate over that, it’s not a hurdle that’s never been done before, but that’s probably the downside risk will be can those titles actually translate over to Western Europe.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

And you mentioned the real-money online gambling this is very high level question, this is kind of a new initiative for the company and I think a new market opportunity as well…

Eric Ludwig

Yeah.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Just talk about what the market opportunity is for company like Glu going forward; it seems like very early stages here?

Eric Ludwig

Yeah, so it’s definitely very early stages and that’s the reason why we’ve not given any numbers or guidance to this in our numbers today. But yeah, we’ve launched two games in the UK, where real-money gambling is actually available to the playing in partnership with the company called Probability PLC. And so we’re realizing revenue today, a small amount of revenue on a rev-share basis from that.

We’re also launching in conjunction with Probability the White Label social casino and this will be real-money gambling in the UK as well and it will be about 15 different slot games with Glu IP slots as well as Bingo, Blackjack, Roulette and there will be 20 games in that Glu Casino.

I mean that will be in a rev-share basis as well in the UK market. So the UK market is still a very small revenue generating market for real-money gambling with the big prices within the state. And I think depending upon who you talk to, depending upon which casino lobbyist you’re talking to, they’ll be either in the short-term, huge opportunities or longer term before real-money gambling takes off in the U.S. So it really depends on who is trying to (inaudible) about that.

But we think of long-term, this is a great market, it’s a great opportunity in the U.S. though how we play in it and how others play in it, we’ve yet to fill the pockets on that, and then there’s a lot of different ways to attack it either with or without getting licenses, doing real-money gambling on a skill-based level doing sweepstakes. So there’s a lot of different ways to cut the U.S. market and we’re still kind of in that evaluation.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. And then another initiative that you discussed in your remarks was the third-party publishing. Just kind of help us to understand of what the strategic rationale there is I mean previously you were focused predominantly on original IP. You’re taking this step to partner with Asian-based game developers; talk about the strategy there, and along the same lines, the significance of the hiring of Chris Akhavan.

Eric Ludwig

Sure. So those are kind of two separate questions.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Sure.

Eric Ludwig

First of all, third-party publishing is something new to the gaming sector; the console guys who’ve done those preferred for decades. And when we looked at Glu, we saw that we were very skilled at G&A, very skilled at sales and marketing head count and what were really lacking was just more short-term goals.

And we wanted to have quality internal short-time goals with our studios and we’ve been improving elongating development cycles, adding more head count to make sure we have higher quality games than we put out before. That’s kind of what we did on the internal and we’ve been pretty committing to the street that we don’t want to increase OpEx, especially on the R&D side.

And so how do we not increase OpEx, but get more short-time goal, and so we really looked at how can we execute well and with our background success and what we saw in Glu is we are a game developer with lots of technological expertise, with great relationships with Apple, Google, Amazon elsewhere across the globe.

But how can we do something where we can get a great rev-share for somebody else’s IP and we kind of settled on a high touch low volume model of third-party publishing. So going to countries and companies that have one success in a given country in a given language don’t have the U.S. legal entity, don’t have any U.S. employees, may not even speak a lot of English, but they’ve got a pretty success.

So that’s kind of a match made in heaven for our publishing expertise to be able to take that title, plug it into our distribution network, plug it into our reporting expertise and bring it to the rest of the world and doing it on a time value basis that’s much faster to the market and they will do by creating own entity and going into strong relationship. That was one of the geneses for that program and we’re very excited about that.

And then secondly your question was about Chris Akhavan, we hired a new President of Publishing, so a Head of Sales and Marketing and Business Development and he’s been on board about three weeks now, previously, he was a number two person at Tapjoy, Tapjoy is a very large private company in the sector that used to helps user acquisition and advertising and what’s great about Chris is he is going to help us in two sides of the P&L.

On the marketing spend side on user acquisition, he’s been doing this for multi-years in the sector and we used to spend half of our marketing dollars on Tapjoy. So in that regards he will be able to help us either do more with less or do the same amount of dollars with a higher efficiency in terms of user acquisition, so that’s on the spend side.

And on the revenue side, he has got a great expertise in terms of advertising and monetization of whether it’s on video advertising or an official advertising, so he is also hit the ground running and trying to hit the low-hanging fruit of how we increase our ad revenue across the Board.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. We’ve about three minutes left. Any questions from the audience, if not, I have more. Okay.

Eric Ludwig

Don’t go back

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

I won’t. You guys have done a couple of restructurings over the course of the last couple of quarters that’s been namely head count reduction; there’s been some facility rationalization as well.

Eric Ludwig

Yeah.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Just kind of bring us up to see where the company is and how your position going forward?

Eric Ludwig

Sure, yeah, so if you back it up nine months ago, we had six locations across the globe, Brazil, Russia, India, U.S., Canada, two in the U.S. and we kind of felt that was too many locations for our company our size. So we’re always looking out for what’s the one location we could actually shutdown.

At the end of last year that opportunity came up with Brazil, so that was part of the rationale for restructuring back in November. And then most recently, we cut 70 people mainly in our Kirkland studio, but then few others across the globe as well. And that was really, our commitment towards the Street was not to increase R&D, OpEx year-over-year.

And in order to add a bunch of new hires and monetization expertise, we kind of had that for one-in and one-out, and so we’ve looked at the studios, looked at the teams, looked at the trajectory of the titles that were coming out, and had to make some tough decisions on which teams and titles to cut, the fund where we wanted to grow. And so that’s kind of what we did, why we did it on the facility side, as well as the team side.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay, Zynga versus Glu Mobile fair comparisons?

Eric Ludwig

David versus Goliath, it’s somewhat of an interesting question. Two years ago, three years ago, we were both social gaming companies and that was about it. They were much more social and we were much less social. They were 100% on Facebook; we were 100% on mobile.

I think now they are transitioning I think 20% of the revenue now is on the mobile platform and that’s growing quite rapidly for them, but I think the challenges the thing they have got is similar to like Glu had two years ago, three years ago, when we were transitioning from feature phones to smartphones, they’ve got a Facebook gaming platform that’s 80% of revenue that’s challenged to grow and so they’ve got three quarters of the revenue that’s challenged to grow with one platform that we’re on that’s growing.

And then when you cut that one more level down, looking at ARPDAU, so you kind of talk about much competitors with higher ARPDAU, and we’re at $0.05 to $0.08, Zynga is up by $0.02 to $0.03 on mobile, so much even harder location for them to be in terms of our ARPDAU. So I think there are some comparisons though not a true like apples-to-apples comparison.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. You’re a growth company. You’ve got about $20 million of cash on your balance sheet, what are the priorities for uses of cash going forward?

Eric Ludwig

Yeah, so we’re a very working capital light company and get paid by Apple and Google within 45 days. So that’s a very quick cash conversion cycle. We spend $2 million to $3 million on CapEx. So it really is how much we want to either grow and it’s important to us to grow on two or three titles or dial back in. So I think we’ve guided cash to be $14 million at the end of the year. We’re comfortable with that level though it’s not a ton of cash, but we’re very comfortable that we can operate the business with that level of cash.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Okay. I think we’re out of time.

Eric Ludwig

And I would say one thing, so for those in the New York area investors, we Glu at an Analyst Day next Thursday at the Le Parker Meridien, so if you get an invite, you get e-mail supporter on our IR website and we’d be happy to having you from 2:00 pm to 5:30 pm on Thursday, May 30, and Drew [thanks for talking] today.

Drew Crum – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.

Thank you, Eric.

Eric Ludwig

All right, great.

Question-and-Answer Session

[No Q&A session for this event]

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