Commodities Today: Buy Rumor, Sell Fact

FOMC leaves the rates unchanged but it appears they have removed deflation from their comments; does that mean it will be replaced with inflation in coming meetings? [Minutes]

Treasury market is still trying to digest the Fed meeting - when the market figures it out we will delve back in. Stand aside on the long end but continue to sell rallies on the short end; puts in the March 10′ Euro-dollar or short futures.

Now for the markets: Energies were lower most likely due to dollar strength. We were buyers on behalf of clients today on the October $5/6 natural gas call spreads for $2,100.

Back into currencies today, on Swiss Franc intervention we bought some lottery tickets for clients. Buy the 93.00 July calls; fill today at $280. This was intrinsic this morning and settled yesterday at $1,310. Risk the premium and look for $600/800.

No trade recommendations in agriculture today. We still are looking to get clients long December corn and November soybeans prior to next Tuesday’s USDA report. Gold and silver went sideways today, we keep the same assumptions as yesterday as long as yesterday’s lows hold; remain long. For options buy $100 call spreads in October gold and $3 call spreads in December silver. We anticipate prints above $1000 and $18 respectively.

Lean hog trade executed today for clients, virtually delta neutral - buy (2) August 62 calls while simultaneously getting short August futures. We trailed the stop on the cocoa trade from yesterday and were out this morning for clients, a $600 profit/per. Advised clients to lighten up on sugar today as well, the last 2 days may be too much too fast. For the right price we like the December 130/150 call spreads in coffee… stay tuned.

Comments

[badboyish:]

excellent ideas again. love your stuff.

Jun 24 09:26 PM

[2Labradors:]

interesting ideas. what event/catalyst do you think will push silver and gold above highs. I'm not refuting that they will go higher, I'm just wonder what you (the author, or anyone else who cares to comment) think will cause it to move past these points of prior resistance and rocket up to new highs.

Jun 24 11:15 PM

[sickofthehype:]

I see you like to cut and paste on multiple articles as well. At any rate, much of that destroyed wealth you refer to was paper wealth to begin with. Good luck with that deflationary spiral theory. And with those T bill purchases you'll be continuing to make, right..


On Jun 24 07:08 PM kearone wrote:

> that's a bunch of BS. the wealth was DESTROYED. it's never co,ing
> back. There is no sideline cash, and we're still in a deflationary
> spiral.
> Dont fall for the green shits hype.
>
> hat tip to www.investmintideas.bl.../ for the good
> articles

Jun 24 11:36 PM

[rick12345:]

Just one word, inflation, or the emergence thereof. As the economy improves (probably following the next reporting season) expect inflation to set in; prices are already on the rise as we speak.


On Jun 24 11:15 PM 2Labradors wrote:

> interesting ideas. what event/catalyst do you think will push silver
> and gold above highs. I'm not refuting that they will go higher,
> I'm just wonder what you (the author, or anyone else who cares to
> comment) think will cause it to move past these points of prior resistance
> and rocket up to new highs.

Jun 25 06:59 AM

[Larry House:]

Just not much to be done right now.

Jun 25 02:33 PM