A Million App Downloads for Palm

By MG Siegler

“You know the beautiful thing: June 29, 2009, is the two-year anniversary of the first shipment of the iPhone,” Elevation Partners (which owns a huge portion of Palm) co-founder Roger McNamee told Bloomberg in March. “Not one of those people will still be using an iPhone a month later.”

We’re 5 days away from that milestone. Anyone want to take that bet still?

It’s been 18 days since the launch of the Palm Pre, and the device has already passed an important milestone: 1 million app downloads, according to mobile analytics firm Medialets. That’s impressive for a store with only 30 or so applications. While Apple (AAPL) surpassed 10 million downloads in its first weekend following the App Store launch in 2007, it had over 500 applications at launch, and already had a few million devices (the original iPhone) with which people could download from.

The big problem for Palm (PALM) is that is set itself up to be compared to the iPhone with comments like the one above and its feature set. And now it has a huge mountain to climb to get anywhere near it. While the Pre may have seen a million app downloads after 18 days, Apple’s newest device, the iPhone 3GS, sold a million hardware units in just three days after its launch last week. Analysts estimate Pre sales to be about 150,000 so far. All told, there are well over 20 million iPhones now out there (probably closer to 25 million), and when you throw in iPod touches (which also access the App Store), there are over 40 million units.

And Palm isn’t making things any easier on itself. During this critical time after launch where new apps are vital, there are only 30 because the webOS SDK still isn’t open to all developers. Palm recently gave an update saying that developers should by the “end of this summer”, but even when they get it, it will likely be another few months before a wide range of apps start coming out. That means it will be the Fall or Winter before there are a ton of apps for the Pre — and that’s assuming developers jump on board.

Meanwhile, all indications are that Apple’s new iPhone 3.0 SDK is kicking app development into an even higher level on that platform. The App Store is currently backlogged with app approvals, and just about every developer I’ve talked to, has something in the pipeline very shortly.

Oh yeah, and Apple just launched a version of the iPhone that is $99, which everyone seems to be forgetting. The sales numbers on that should be interesting.

That’s not to say Palm cannot be successful with the Pre and more specifically, its webOS, it can. It’s a great device, and a great platform. And the mobile arena, and specifically smartphones, are exploding in popularity right now. There is certainly more than enough room for a number of devices and a range of platforms. But Palm still has some very serious question marks on the business side of things, and they’re basically betting the farm on the Pre. It has another webOS device that may or may not come in the next few months, but even if it does, if the apps aren’t there, it could be facing a less than stellar entrance. And that’s the kind of performance Palm needs right now, stellar.

On the other hand, McNamee’s comment might technically be true. All those people who bought the original iPhone may not be using one a month from now — they might be using the iPhone 3GS, instead. Let’s revisit this on July 29, shall we?

Original post

Comments

[another.ana...:]

Gee, 30 apps. I bet that will known the wind out of the iPhone's sales pretty quick!

Roger the moron was right. There aren't any of the original iPhone customers who have reached the 2 year mark still with the original iPhone. They have all grabbed a 3G or a 3GS in the last 10 days.
First of course, they were blown away by the Pre, then when they stopped laughing at the mountains of apps available they bought another iPhone.

Ayuh

Jun 24 05:19 PM

[Jon T:]

The arrogance of Palm Execs and backers will come back and bite them...

To say you're going to pound the competition is only setting yourself up for failure. And however well the Pre does, it will be accorded failure status precisely because of their hubris.

Jun 25 09:05 AM

[JBMoney:]

Umm actually, I still have my iPhone 2G but yes I will be upgrading in another few months to the 3GS. This PALM investor, McNamee is another example of being blind to reality much like Ballmer is. They are so caught up in what they are doing, they simply assume it is the best thing that has ever come along. The problem is they have never taken the time to truly use the other competing products to realize how far away they actually are. I equate it to someone living in a state and claiming where they live is the best place on earth. But they have never been out of their state or traveled to 99.9% of the rest of the world. They simply have no idea. Insert Robert. Time to explore my friend.

Jun 25 10:04 AM

[mollytjm:]

good article. the bottom line in tech wars is pretty much the same...how fast and how well can you innovate...then how fast and how well can you get the word out.
Palm has never been that great at fast innovating. releasing a phone that's supposed to compete with the iPhone and having so few apps available is a case in point...and then to tell developers to wait longer is just nuts. This is a 'plan' for disaster.
And there are still lines at the Apple Stores for the new iPhone and for the $99 iPhone. What other phone release gets this kind of reaction? Apple just knows how to do it ALL, well.

Jun 25 10:21 AM

[Stuff and N...:]

A million app downloads - but which apps are in the Palm store? Only those whose developers were invited by Palm - specifically, those apps that are wildly popular iPhone apps. There aren't any Palm-original apps; all of these are apps that are "must haves" on the iPhone - so people who wanted Pre or needed to stay with Sprint for some reason, and who have iPhone envy, can get a few of the apps their iPhone-wielding friends have.

The Apple App Store didn't take that approach. They released the development environment to the public and got a wild, rich, diverse, and fun assortment of apps. Lots of crap, and a good many unexpected wonderful surprises. Crowing about a million downloads of already proven popular apps is akin to saying that people like the songs on "greatest hits" albums - that's why they are called "greatest hits".

Jun 25 11:56 AM

[brewer:]

Only ONE THOUSAND TIMES more downloads, and you will have caught up to where Apple was last April. Oh, on their new device.

What is really ridiculous is that it will take more work to catch up on the apps front. Only 30 apps?

Jun 25 03:27 PM