Roubini Just Won't Turn Positive on the Economy

On CNBC Monday , Nouriel Roubini finally lapsed into incoherence:

When I look at [the economic data] I see so far still more yellow weeds than green shoots. They have to bottom out, in my view they haven’t bottomed out.

OK. I get it. No recovery yet. But then, in his very next sentence he adds:

This recovery, unfortunately, because of the debt overhang . . . is going to be a very weak economic recovery, in my view.

So the recovery is on again! Except that there is no recovery, and all those green shoots are really yellow weeds.

Which is it, already? In fact, if I read other recent comments from Roubini right, his near-term economic forecast is smack in the middle of the consensus: the economy will resume growth (perhaps “sharp” growth) in the second half, he says. True, over the longer term Roubini is much more bearish. Then again he’s always bearish over the long-term. It’s his marketing M.O.

Remember Neil Diamond? At every single concert the poor guy plays, he has to sing “Sweet Caroline” whether he wants to or not, or run the risk the audience might riot. Roubini is starting to remind me of Neil. In every interview he gives, he has to spout his trademark doom and gloom, regardless of what the data shows, or the reporters will stop calling. The Dr. Doom schtick is getting old. But I’m sure it’s still highly lucrative. .

Comments

[Dave Wrixon:]

Pathetic!

Roubini?

No!!!

Jun 25 04:21 AM

[jeandit75:]

Tom, the is no blinder than that who refuses to look. If you don't see the downside to this ecomical mess then you are either blind or dumb.

Jun 25 07:00 AM

[User 357705:]

Roubini is a convenient whipping boy for the pump and dump crowd. Nothing to say but have to keep their name out there so pick on Roubini because all their like thinking friends hate the guy too. Good opportunity to reassure the crowd you're one of them.

Jun 25 07:45 AM

[User 305589:]

Seems you are getting into some personal vendetta with roubini, tom.
I don't know whether roubini will be right about the economy (i do think he should in any case stop making stock market predictions). But I am pretty sure that any recovery, whenever it occurs will be vastly different than any previous recovery from a recession of the past 60 years.
My question to you is, tom, what is your point? what is the point of this article?
you mean to say that roubini will always be bearish and that he doesn't know shit? fine, but then again, haven't you stated this already a couple of times before?
I'd really like to read some insights into the current banking landscape from you as this clearly is a subject you know very well - and it certainly will have more substance than just some rant against some popular doomsayer.

Jun 25 08:52 AM

[Glen L.:]

Although Roubini is not my favorite, I think he's more right than wrong, and hardly incoherent in the two sentences the author quotes. Just because he doesn't see a recovery yet doesn't mean he thinks there will never be one, Tom. And the point about the debt overhang is spot on.

Jun 25 10:18 AM

[Jimbo:]

My interpretation of Roubini is that while there are some elements of the economy recovering, they may be overridden by events in the future such as the ARM resets in an environment of high unemployment. I fear this "recovery" is going to be long and painful.

Jun 25 10:55 AM

[delta 777:]

it looks like we will have a wonderful holiday season this year, judging from all the merchandise that is now being ordered for the season???Just think, the retailers will be able to close up their shops well before the season, and take their holidays early to go shopping??? Main streeters without jobs will also have so much extra time on their hands that they will just spend it shopping till they drop???and foreclosures that are now on hold will remain on hold??? and of course banks will be able to completely repay borrowed money and cover their written-down ass ets, and exotic derivative problems will have disappeared.

Jun 25 01:08 PM

[snagglesnarf:]

I am amused at how much faith people put in Mr Roubini and his estimates. Yes, he did warn us of this economic downturn but just because a doctor can diagnose a cancer does not mean he can cure it. Mr Roubini is as clueless as the rest of us in trying predict what the economy will do in the months and years ahead.

Jun 25 07:50 PM

[User 278171:]

Can't "This recovery" in your quote of Roubini mean "this expected recovery" or "this next recovery" or something describing a recovery at some unknown future time? Given that interpretation, there is nothing at all incoherent about the statement.

Jun 25 09:28 PM

[fwallace55:]

snagglesmart...

I agree with you...

thanks

Jun 25 11:29 PM