Market Pauses to Digest Economic Data

Wednesday’s session was a mixed bag of nuts. Economic data showed durable goods better than expected while new home sales came in below consensus estimates. Driving technology stocks were Oracle’s (ORCL) positive earnings surprise and forward guidance. The Fed left rates unchanged as many expected and acknowledges a deceleration in the economic contraction, but is not willing to tighten rates any time soon.

Leading industries: precious metals; software; automobiles; semiconductors; and real estate. Lagging industries: defense; wireless communications; home construction; and water utilities.

There are no changes in today’s trend analysis table. The short-term trend for the DIA, SPY, QQQQ and IWM all remain down. The QQQQ is the only index that is flashing a primary uptrend, but it is also losing its momentum.

Below is Wednesday’s market summary, market conditon and trend analysis, and support and resistance tables:

Market Summary

• The DIA closed down -0.18% @ $83.03 and $1.25 below its high and $0.45 above its low on volume +26.41% above its average volume. Daily PMI* is @ 26.47.
• The SPY closed up +0.86% @ 90.12 and $0.96 below its high and $0.52 above its low on volume +12.35% above its average volume . Daily PMI* is @ 35.14.
• The QQQQ closed up +1.59% @ 35.59 and $0.28 below its high and $0.59 above its low on volume -10.00% below its average volume. Daily PMI* is @ 67.82.
• The IWM closed up +1.08% @ 49.62 and $0.63 below its high and $0.29 above its low on volume -2.08% below its average volume. Daily PMI* is @ 7.61.

(*PMI measures and indicates strength of the underylying security’s trading range on a scale of 1-100.)

Market Condition and Trend Analysis

ETF Index	Market Condition	Short-Term	Intermediate	Primary
DIA	neutral	down	up	down
SPY	neutral	down	up	down
QQQQ	neutral	down	up	up
IWM	neutral	down	up	down

Technical Support & Resistance Levels for Thursday, June-25-2009

Index	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
DJ-30	7992.32	8160.85	8230.36	8329.38	8398.89	8497.91	8666.44
SP-500	870.80	886.55	893.74	902.30	909.49	918.05	933.80
Nadaq	1703.79	1745.95	1769.15	1788.11	1811.31	1830.27	1872.43
Russ-2k	478.47	487.31	491.63	496.15	500.47	504.99	513.83
VIX	25.89	27.68	28.37	29.47	30.16	31.26	33.05

Index ETF	Ticker	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
DJ-30	DIA	79.90	81.60	82.31	83.30	84.01	85.00	86.70
SP-500	SPY	87.31	88.79	89.45	90.27	90.93	91.75	93.23
NASDAQ-100	QQQQ	33.75	34.62	35.10	35.49	35.97	36.36	37.23
R2K	IWM	47.89	48.81	49.22	49.73	50.14	50.65	51.57

Sector ETF	Ticker	S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
Consumer Discretion	XLY	21.47	21.97	22.16	22.47	22.66	22.97	23.47
Consumer Staples	XLP	22.27	22.51	22.61	22.75	22.85	22.99	23.23
Energy	XLE	45.13	46.26	46.74	47.39	47.87	48.52	49.65
Financials	XLF	11.08	11.36	11.49	11.64	11.77	11.92	12.20
Health Care	XLV	25.01	25.33	25.50	25.65	25.82	25.97	26.29
Industrials	XLI	20.31	20.92	21.16	21.53	21.77	22.14	22.75
Materials	XLB	23.99	24.73	25.03	25.47	25.77	26.21	26.95
Technology	XLK	17.37	17.65	17.79	17.93	18.07	18.21	18.49
Telecom	IYZ	17.12	17.39	17.51	17.66	17.78	17.93	18.20
Utilities	XLU	26.59	26.98	27.18	27.37	27.57	27.76	28.15

(Please click here to see graphs in original format and better visual interpretation of results.)

Disclosure: Hillbent.com, Inc. or its affiliates may own positions in the equities mentioned in our reports. We do not receive any compensation from any of the companies covered in our reports.

Comments

[Mad Hedge F...:]

Where next. Now that we are solidly into a correction, I have been flooded with requests from readers to call the next bottom in the S&P 500. Well here it is. Brace yourself. Put it on a Post-it-Note on your computer. It is without a doubt and unquestionably going to be 880, 850, 830, 800, 750, 666, or 320. That last number works out to be 90% of the book value of the S&P 500, which was the low seen in the 1930s depression. Yes, that depression, not this one. You are really asking me to solve a one billion variable equation, because that is the number of direct and indirect participants in global stock markets. If the few green shoots out there start to die off, the meltdown in commercial real estate accelerates, the Fed missteps by draining liquidity too soon, or there is another unforeseen shock to the system, then you can go with the lower of these numbers. If we are distracted by the health care debate, emerging market economies continue to perk up, and this strength helps our technology stocks stay alive, then sleepy narrow trading ranges will dominate, and the higher support levels will hold. But no matter what happens, I will be able to come back to you in three months and claim that I was right.

Jun 25 08:24 AM