Michigan Confidence at Highest Level Since January 2008

Michigan Confidence joins the growing number of indicators that are now at or better than Pre-Lehman levels. Today's reading of 70.8 is actually the highest since January 2008. This month's reading is also the fourth consecutive month-over-month increase in confidence. A reading of 70.8 is still well below the monthly average of 86.8 since 1978, but it's also nicely above the level of 55 that we saw in late 2008.

Comments

[Steven Hansen:]

the clowns that participate in this survey believe current conditions have improved while future expectations fell a little in June.

Jun 26 06:20 PM

[Dave Wrixon:]

Delusional Indicators for the most part.

Jun 26 06:25 PM

[Mr. Ed, Jr.:]

Well.....The poll does have one purpose. It tells us that sheep-shearing season is about to begin.

Jun 26 10:08 PM

[ecoco:]

Good news, yes

More spending, NO

Then next reading will be lower once people starts to absorb the effect of 10%b unemployment.

Jun 27 08:58 AM

[jay fredric...:]

History shows that confidence indicators have predicted 10 of the last 5 recessions, and 20 of the last five recoveries.
Jay

Jun 27 09:02 AM

[CLH:]

All comments above are negative. The smart business people are busy while the above posters are probably unemployed and negative for good reason.

Dont listen to negatives.

Jun 27 09:08 AM

[Ted Hurlbut:]

Consumers are anticipating better times ahead, even if they're not prepared to spend more today. Look for retail sales to improve in Q4, when the same-store sales comps turn favorable. That will go a long way toward turning the negative psychology.

Jun 27 09:12 AM

[herbert hoover:]

How are retail sales going to improve when the unemployment rate will be 11% by year end, gas prices will be $4 a gallon and the banks will continue to cut back on consumer credit? Dream on.


On Jun 27 09:12 AM Ted Hurlbut wrote:

> Consumers are anticipating better times ahead, even if they're not
> prepared to spend more today. Look for retail sales to improve in
> Q4, when the same-store sales comps turn favorable. That will go
> a long way toward turning the negative psychology.

Jun 27 09:32 AM

[surgcare:]

So the american people are stupid , whats new ?

Jun 27 09:37 AM

[TeresaE:]

Whomever they talked to to get this reading are obviously partaking of the medical marijuana.

Michigan is DEAD. NO jobs, businesses closing daily, thousands of homes & commercial properties sit vacant, decaying and vandalized.

Things are worse today than they were when Michigan started it's "one state recession" EIGHT years ago.

As a business owner watching everything my husband has worked for disintegrate, things have NEVER been this bad in Michigan.

BUT, apparently the welfare & union state we have created is keeping people happy. Unless they need jobs.

Jun 27 09:52 AM

[TeresaE:]

10%?

Michigan's unemployment rate is over 14% reported, closer to 30% actuality.


On Jun 27 08:58 AM ecoco wrote:

> Good news, yes
>
> More spending, NO
>
> Then next reading will be lower once people starts to absorb the
> effect of 10%b unemployment.

Jun 27 09:53 AM

[BlueOkie:]

I'm not sure there is much of a relationship to the S&P and Michigan data. It does get a lot of press!

Jun 27 10:11 AM

[diogeron:]

Perhaps some posters are right and people are, indeed, "delusional." Nonetheless, is strikes me as somewhat arrogant to assume that people are somehow unable to determine their point of view about what the future holds for them. After all, the bogus "efficiency of market" argument notwithstanding, it is difficult for me to just dismiss both market psychology and peoples' view of their economic reality out of hand.

Jun 27 12:31 PM

[ken3602:]

So what? poeple are quite relieved that they still keep their jobs while their neighbor is losing his/hers (remember 10% unemployment is still one out of ten which you don't feel threathened unless you or your wife's got fired...). Since they are saving and not spending, they feel more confident with their near future while not spending will eventually tank our ecomony even more. The number is peaking too early too fast which indicates it will fall sharply when people realize things are not going that well but in fact getting worse. A dive of Michigan Confidence will soon happen, and it will contribute its part to the stock market plunging this summer.

Jun 27 12:31 PM

[frorule21:]

I agree with the "negative" posters here. The rise in stocks and confidence are merely upward blips in an otherwise downtrending market and economy. I wouldn't be surprised to see 15% unemployment in the next 5 years.

Jun 27 03:46 PM

[rosey99:]

The highest since January, 2008? Is this some sort of joke? I mean, was the confidence back then justified?

I'm not sure what the authors intend, but this is a pretty simple and straight forward explanation of just why these "sentiment" indicators are examples of the Heisenberg effect in action.

If you want to know how the weather is, look out the window.

Jun 27 07:41 PM

[Dr. Duru:]

I agree with the folks who point out that a valid perspective on these numbers is to wonder why confidence was so high right before things got so bad. We cannot say that these confidence numbers are BOTH backward-looking and forward-looking depdending on the spin we prefer.
I would love to see some study that shows to what these confidence numbers are supposed to be correlated. For example, before this recession, I believe it was accepted that there was litlle to no correlation between consumer confidence and spending.

Jun 27 08:19 PM

[Dr. Duru:]

I should have added that I wonder whether it is the rate and direction of change that matters more than the absolute level?


On Jun 27 08:19 PM Dr. Duru wrote:

> I agree with the folks who point out that a valid perspective on
> these numbers is to wonder why confidence was so high right before
> things got so bad. We cannot say that these confidence numbers are
> BOTH backward-looking and forward-looking depdending on the spin
> we prefer.
> I would love to see some study that shows to what these confidence
> numbers are supposed to be correlated. For example, before this recession,
> I believe it was accepted that there was litlle to no correlation
> between consumer confidence and spending.

Jun 27 10:43 PM

[ExaminerB:]

Please remember that investment advisory services always encourage faith in the economy. They make their living only when people are willing to spend. Thus, one must always take their musings with a ton or two of salt.

Jun 28 01:05 AM

[markfl:]

I'm 100% confident that areas of Michigan converted to urban greenscape will not be participating in future surveys.

" The government [is] looking at expanding a pioneering scheme in Flint, one of the poorest US cities, which involves razing entire districts and returning the land to nature."
www.telegraph.co.uk/fi...

Jun 28 01:13 AM