Florida Home Sales Increase for the 9th Straight Month

ORLANDO, FL (June 23, 2009) – Florida’s existing home sales rose in May – the ninth month in a row that sales activity increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors (FAR). Statewide sales showed gains over the previous month’s sales level in both the existing home and existing condominium markets. Also, for the first time in many months, the statewide median sales price in May for existing homes and for existing condos ($144,400) rose over the previous month’s figure ($138,500) by 4.26%.

Existing home sales rose 16% last month with a total of 13,921 homes sold statewide compared to 12,044 homes sold in May 2008, according to FAR (see chart above). Statewide existing home sales in May increased 6.2% over April’s statewide activity.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $144,400; a year ago, it was $203,800 for a 29% decrease. However, the statewide existing home median price in May ($144,400) was higher than the statewide median price reported in each of the previous four months ($139,500 in Jan., $141,900 in Feb., $141,300 in Mar. and $138,500 in Apr.).

Just like in California, we now have both rising home sales (units) and rising median home prices in Florida for May, suggesting that both markets have probably bottomed and are now in the early states of recovery.

Comments

[Tim Plaehn:]

If both Florida and California, the epicenters of the real estate collapse, are showing increasing sales and prices, this is a very positive sign.

Jun 28 08:41 AM

[Houston:]

looks like a bottom to me.

Jun 28 09:33 AM

[Rhett:]

With the huge unsold Florida housing inventory, both on and off the market, and unprecedented foreclosure rates, how can you say with any confidence that this now appears to be the bottom?

Jun 28 11:52 AM

[Trane250:]

How many of those homes are being gobbled up by Europeans looking for bargains?

Jun 28 12:45 PM

[John Lounsbury:]

In spite of the dramatic drop in median price (29%), the economic value of transactions (using median as a proxy for average) is down much less, 18%. The May, 2008 transaction value was $2.455 billion (12,044 x $203,800) and the May, 2009 transaction value was $2.011 billion (13,921 x 144,400).

This is a less of a decrease in transaction value year over year than I have calculated from other selected data in the past six months. It is a sign that we may be getting closer to the bottom. To really define a bottom we must make sure that the overhang of foreclosures is diminishing. That could happen if the low mortgage rates earlier this year allowed a significant number of the adjustable resets scheduled for 2010 and 2011 to have been refinanced early. I have not been able to find data on that subject yet.

Also needed to stabilize housing prices and sales at a level from which they can start growing again (although at much slower rates than in the bubble), are a number of things:

1. An upturn in economic activity (not just stopping the decline, which may be close at hand);

2. A peak in unemployment, with the subsequent increase in people finding re-employment starting (which may be many months away);

3. Inventories showing a multi-month shrinkage back down toward the six months level which would be consistent with a healthier housing market.

We have to be closer to a bottom than a few months ago. Barring Armageddon, house prices can't fall to zero ( although it seems they might in some places, like Detroit).

Jun 28 02:12 PM

[D. McHattie:]

Mark J. Perry said: "we now have both rising home sales (units) and rising median home prices in Florida for May".

Um, no, not really.

Home prices rose month-over-month in May, like they do every single year in accordance with natural yearly cycles in home prices. Home prices rise in the spring in up years and in down and, as such, is no indication of anything.

The year-over-year home price number, the only one that matters, is down 29%.

I know you want this housing decline to be finished, Mark, but you are either intellectually dishonest or completely ignorant. Either way, you are not to be trusted.

Jun 28 04:10 PM

[sleepless_o...:]

There is more useful information in the two preceding comments than in the article, although the data presented is useful. The commenters did something worthwhile with the data, something that author did not do so well.

Jun 28 05:36 PM

[kruser53:]

Agree with sleepless - comments are excellent.

Jun 28 05:54 PM

[Cold Reality:]

IF you believe that bottom-feeders and scavengers reacting to low low prices and distressed sales at the historic seasonal peak represent the future upside of the market.


On Jun 28 08:41 AM Tim Plaehn wrote:

> If both Florida and California, the epicenters of the real estate
> collapse, are showing increasing sales and prices, this is a very
> positive sign.

Jun 30 08:25 PM