Gold Bulls Outnumber Bears

Thursday afternoon we asked Think B.I.G. readers whether they were bullish or bearish on gold over the next six months. After a day's worth of voting, 56% were bullish and 44% were bearish. This is a fairly neutral reading and helps explain why the metal has been floundering between $900 and $1000 for some time now. There were more bulls than bears, however, so if they're putting their money where their mouth is, maybe gold can break above the $1000 mark and stay there.

Comments

[Macro_Man]

Gold is going to continue dropping till at least 870 and here is why:

Technicals: It dropped from 990 to 913 pretty quickly. Then it formed a flag as it retraced 50% of its drop. On Friday it looks like it broke the flag formation on heavy volume. We could get confirmation as early as Monday/Tuesday. In this case, the break point of 940 less 77 (the maginitude of the drop from 990 to 913) is about 870

Fundametals: Jewelry demand is constitutes 60% of the demand for gold and India is a big consumer. With poor monsoons and a weakening ruppee, there will be lower demand. Same can be said for jewelry demand from other countries. Summer season is traditionally slow for Gold. The Fed is pulling back its horns, inflation fears are subsiding globally. The long bond can rally a few more basis points, but will sell off again after hovering around 4.20% or so (again based on technicals from the recent rally)...short term interest rates will likely go up as well. The dollar is poised to bounce back soon. S&P looks like it is forming a head and shoulders with the right shoulder building in text book fashion on low volume.

Prediction is if we get confirmation on Monday..then gold is heading all with the way down to 870 at the least....after spending some time around 900 and 890...as there will be enormous support there with a lot of put selling by a lot of people.

2009 Jun 28 06:45 AM

[DONE_SONZ]

Technicals can't be trusted.If everyone is a supposed expert on charts,then they can be mannipulated just like anything else.Jewlery demand is not the name of the game with gold.The fed is nowhere near pulling its horns back.The dollar will lose value in either direction.Recovery=inf... recovery=debt default.

2009 Jun 28 08:37 AM

[DONE_SONZ]

Recovery=inflation No recovery=debt default -was cut off from previous post.

2009 Jun 28 08:39 AM

[Mike10613]

My instincts tell me we may have to wait awhile for gold to really go up as it certainly will. There will be a pre-Christmas demand from the jewelery trade and bullion will be bought slowly by the Chinese government and I would be surprised if other Asian governments didn't buy gold in too ready for a new Interational Gold Standard or something very similar.

2009 Jun 28 08:59 AM

[DONE_SONZ]

1 n.


On Jun 28 08:37 AM DONE_SONZ wrote:

> Technicals can't be trusted.If everyone is a supposed expert on charts,then
> they can be mannipulated just like anything else.Jewlery demand is
> not the name of the game with gold.The fed is nowhere near pulling
> its horns back.The dollar will lose value in either direction.Recovery=inf...
> recovery=debt default.

2009 Jun 28 09:47 AM

[CLH]

Gold wont go up without inflation. There is no chance of inflation.

Macro Man is right. Gold is a loser.

Buy equities--now up almost 50% and headed higher.

2009 Jun 28 08:49 PM

[Jake2]

Bespoke Investmen Group ("Big" ?) is usually a bit more rigorous in its analysis. This piece is too speculative. Take a poll and tell me what gold "might" do doesn't quite cut it.

2009 Jun 29 01:29 AM

[DaveW]

So let me get this right, bulls outnumber bears AND since Sept. '08 the Fed as unleashed out my hundred $B? and gold couldn't even meet last years high???
Many gold and equities bulls are about to be shocked...

2009 Jun 29 01:56 AM

[esotericist]

My take, too. Same numbers, too.

Super short opportunity on some gold miners.
There are gaps to be filled on all. GG for example at 30 or so.

Made 5K in GG on the upswing last 2 weeks... now in cash waiting for a fall. Willing though to change my mind on a dime if the action supports that conclusion. Because if it does... this is it. Commercials covering at this level would be good for 2-300$ an ounce at least. I'm skeptical this is the time though. We have an intellectual debate going on here. Inflation or deflation. I think it's deflation. And the global economy is screwed.

On Jun 28 06:45 AM Macro_Man wrote:

> Gold is going to continue dropping till at least 870 and here is
> why:
>
> Technicals: It dropped from 990 to 913 pretty quickly. Then it
> formed a flag as it retraced 50% of its drop. On Friday it looks
> like it broke the flag formation on heavy volume. We could get confirmation
> as early as Monday/Tuesday. In this case, the break point of 940
> less 77 (the maginitude of the drop from 990 to 913) is about 870
>
>
> Fundametals: Jewelry demand is constitutes 60% of the demand for
> gold and India is a big consumer. With poor monsoons and a weakening
> ruppee, there will be lower demand. Same can be said for jewelry
> demand from other countries. Summer season is traditionally slow
> for Gold. The Fed is pulling back its horns, inflation fears are
> subsiding globally. The long bond can rally a few more basis points,
> but will sell off again after hovering around 4.20% or so (again
> based on technicals from the recent rally)...short term interest
> rates will likely go up as well. The dollar is poised to bounce back
> soon. S&P looks like it is forming a head and shoulders with
> the right shoulder building in text book fashion on low volume.
>
>
> Prediction is if we get confirmation on Monday..then gold is heading
> all with the way down to 870 at the least....after spending some
> time around 900 and 890...as there will be enormous support there
> with a lot of put selling by a lot of people.

2009 Jun 29 11:54 PM