Weekly ETF Rewind: Some Looking Short Term Overbought

The S&P 500 (SPY) posted a mild -0.2% loss last week, leaving it flat over the last twenty trading days. In contrast, the technology laden NASDAQ100 (QQQQ) was up +0.6%, making it the second strongest performer among the tracked ETFs, as ranked by current prices versus respective simple ten-month moving averages.

(Click Image to Enlarge/ Glossary)

In this respect, the strongest ETF continues to be Emerging Markets (EEM), even in spite of its recent pullback. Certainly the most divergent to the downside has been the Energy sector (XLE), for which the rate of change over the last month has fallen far behind other sectors (see performance 'Relative to S&P500').

Incredibly to this trader, Week Twenty-Seven of 2009 officially kicks off the second half of the trading year. The holiday shortened week nevertheless features a busy economic calendar, including Jobs Thursday, as follows:

• Yahoo! - U.S. Economic Calendar
• Yahoo! - U.S. Earnings Calendar

While the powerful mid-week recovery may well run into the end-of-month and through the Fourth of July Holiday, some ETFs are already looking quite short-term overbought, especially Emerging Markets, Healthcare (XLV) and Small-Cap Growth (PWT). Also note that the mean-reverting VIX (Implied Options Volatility) is slightly bearishly stretched to the downside (-11.4% below its 15-day moving average). Have a Terrific Week!

Click to enlarge:

Comments

[retrobeast:]

With the Fed the only thing holding this market up by pumping money into the banks, it is only a matter of days or weeks that this house of cards will crumble.
Look at IWM and SPY. Both of their weekly Stochs are rolling over. When IWM hits 68 you will see the small caps go down big.
If you are looking for a good ETF to make a killing in then I suggest
TZA which runs against the IWM (Russell Index).
Thank you and good luck.

Jun 29 02:05 PM

[ETF Screener:]

Interesting table of market data. Is that table available on a HTML page with sorting, editable parameters, etc?
Thanks

Jun 29 04:58 PM