Latin Coup Datapoint of the Day

The Wikipedia list of successful coups d’état is a very useful resource. You can argue the toss on many of the specifics (was Alberto Fujimori’s dissolution of the Peruvian parliament in 1992 a coup?) but the big picture is clear: Latin American coups are increasingly rare things.

The 1960s saw 12 successful coups in the region; the 1970s saw 9; in the 1980s there were 6; in the 1990s there were 3; and so far this decade there has only been one, in Ecuador in 2000. Honduras might double that figure to two, but that misses a more important datapoint — that if you look just at the big three countries in the region — Argentina, Mexico, and Brazil — there hasn’t been a successful coup since 1976, 33 years ago.

It wasn’t that long ago that all Latin American politicians had to carefully mollify the military, lest they suffer a coup. Today, that really isn’t a worry in most Latin countries, even though the military naturally leans right while politics in the region is tending leftward. What’s more, the important countries have fewer coups than the small ones: Bolivia had no fewer than 11 successful coups between 1930 and 1980, only for Haiti to take on the mantle with further coups in 1986, 1988, and 1991. But coups in bigger countries, like Venezuela, have been notable for their lack of success: Chavez failed with his own attempt in 1992, and then successfully rebuffed another ten years later.

For all the fears about the future of Latin American democracy, the fact is that the region is far more democratic now than it has been at any point in the past, and that even when there are coups, like the present one in Honduras, the military moves quickly to install a new civilian leadership, rather than ruling as a junta. That’s the silver lining in today’s cloud. (Full list of datapoints here.)

Comments

[safariman:]

But the Honduran "Coup" was not a Coup.

I live in Honduras. My wife and I retired here, 14 years ago. We love living here. It is a beautiful Country populated by mostly hard working, honest people who wish to live with peace and opportunity.

Three and a half years ago, Mel Zelaya was elected President of Honduras. He ran in the Liberal Party, roughly the equivalent of the Democrat Party in the USA. He campaigned on a conservative note. Things changed pretty rapidly after he took office. He has been a disaster to private initiative of every kind; personal, entrepreneurial, and industrial. He ignored all but his own executive branch of Government. (Honduras, like the USA, has a "checks and balances" system comprised of a Congress and Supreme Court.) . Zelaya's support was very limited from rich and poor alike, the only exceptions being some indigenous (no doubt deserving) that he showered with benefits and promises of much more.

Zelaya's removal was a Democratic move (Impeachment Equivalent) to try to restore order in a country falling into the abyss because of a corrupt President that was becoming more dictatorial by the day, under the tutelege of Hugo Chavez. The Supreme Court and Congress worked together for several days to assure continuance of Democracy, in lieu of the Dictatorial Socialist path Zelaya was following. There has been NO rupture of Democracy here. Roberto Micheletti, President of the National Congress and a member of Zelaya's own Party was named interim President, to remain until elections scheduled in November (which Zelaya had wanted to abrogate to remain in power). Micheletti has already appointed a cabinet of good advisors, a couple of them I've met, and in whom I have confidence. I can pretty well assure you that if the new Government continues, it will be more democratic and transparent than the Zelaya Government.

It seems most inappropriate that world leaders roundly oppose the replacement of Former President Mel Zelaya, when they know little or nothing about the situation here.

I would appreciate it if world leaders would come to Honduras and review the situation on the ground before pontificating about Law and Constitution. It is Zelaya who did the first "golpe de estado" through a large number of actions. The National Congress simply did its part to preserve Democracy here.

Please pass this message to everyone who might be interested. We don't need brickbats, we need support. We do not need to be the next Socialist victim.

Jun 30 12:38 PM

[Tony Petroski:]

Great article by Safariman with an interesting comment by Mr. Salmon.

Jul 01 09:41 PM