5 More Stock Briefs

Antigentics (AGEN): Shares of Antigentics spiked to over two dollars during mid day trading on Tuesday, in part due to a rumor circulating around the Internet of a possible early approval for Oncophage. Specifics of the rumor are unclear, but since Oncophage is not currently under FDA review, the speculation is probably regarding the European application for approval.

There is undoubtedly little truth to this rumor, in VFC's opinion, and the spike is most likely the result of mere manipulation more than anything else. Any news, or legitimate speculation, regarding additional approvals for Oncophage would cause a spike in the AGEN share price of more than 10%.

Continue accumulating under $2 and ignore the small, manipulative, spikes in price.


Sirius XM (SIRI): Last Friday's ten cent drop at the close also proved to be nothing more than a head fake as the SIRI stock rebounded nicely to forty two cents on Monday.

The initial hype of the SiriusXM iPhone application launched the application to near the top of Apple's (AAPL) 'most popular' list. The 'app', which is downloaded on the iPhone for free, will bring in additional revenue to SiriusXM as existing customers upgrade to 'Premier' packages in order to use their service on the iPhone. Also, just having the application available at the Apple store gives SiriusXM a nice marketing and advertising edge.

With XM's 2009 debt no longer a pending burden on the stock price, due to the senior notes issued last week, I still predict a spike to over a dollar in the near future (few months time, at most).

I believe that SIRI is still a highly manipulated stock and when the big boys are ready for to move it, it'll move.

Oncothyreon (ONTY): Shares of Oncothyreon have approached four dollars again, although no news has been released of late to justify the spike.

I still like the Stimuvax story, although I will wait for the stock to drift back down to three dollars, or below, before I resume accumulation of the stock.

That being said, any additional positive news on Stimuvax, or other cancer vaccine candidates, could propel the stock northwards of five dollars on short notice. I don't forsee that happening anytime soon, but as awareness of cancer immunotherapy treatment grows and products such as Dendreon's (DNDN) Provenge move closer to market, the whole cancer-vaccine 'sector' could see a boost.

As DNDN has already proven twice, a boost in this sector is pretty significant.

Insmed (INSM): Shares of Insmed (INSM), freshly cut in half after disappointing IPLEX MMD Phase II results, have again dropped below the dollar mark. IPLEX is far from a finished drug and a sub $1 price is a good time to buy as the swing/day/momentum traders all move out of the stock. IPLEX has not even been declared completely dead for the treatment of MMD.

While my expected timeframe for seeing signficant returns on the stock has moved further down the road, sub $1 is a great price to make an investment in the future of IPLEX, an already approved FDA drug.

There has been recent speculation about the timing of the CEO leaving the company and the subsequent disappointing MMD results, but controversy such as that give the small investor a chance to get in on the cheap.

I wouldn't be surprised if INSM drifted into the sixty cent range again, but with cash on hand and an already approved FDA drug, Insmed still has a future.

Celsius Holdings (CSUH.ob): Shares of Celsius Holdings have been retesting the 52-week high of twenty cents this week, and for those who do not already have a position in the stock, now may be the time to buy- before second quarter earnings are released, most likely in August.

The company should also launch the calorie-burning "energy shot" later this year.
With consumer awareness and distribution continuing to escalate, earnings could surprise, which would most likely lead to another significant pop in stock price.

Speculation before earnings could also lead to a rise in price, in my opinion, maybe to the twenty five cent level.

CSUH.ob is a speculative risk-reward play, so while I am positive on this stock, I don't suggest an investor put 'all their eggs in the basket' at twenty cents. There is a chance for a drop back into the mid-teens, or below if quarterly earnings don't meet expectations, so I suggest buying some now and then waiting to see what happens.

If the price drops, buy more. If it doesn't and earnings are solid, CSUH.ob will be a safer buy at that point than it is now at a speculative 52-week high.

Those who have been in since below ten cents, this is a non-issue; you're already sitting pretty well. The Celsius product still has a lot of room to grow in both distribution and awareness and if the product takes off, so should the stock.
I'm still waiting for a major celebrity to jump on board.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN, VFC is long SIRI, long ONTY, long INSM, long CSUH.ob.

Comments

[MacTheKnife]

ONTY partner Merck is to publish long term survival data from the Ph 2 trial of Stimuvax on Augst 2nd - just 4 weeks form now. When that happens watch out, ONTY will be above 5 and perhaps even higher.

2009 Jul 01 04:30 AM

[R A F]

There is no question that SIRI is being manipulated (on the short side) by "the big boys". The SEC should certainly look into this and take this heavily into consideration while evaluating all comments received regarding review of the uptick rule and naked short sales. Manipulation - in any form - is an abuse of the marketplace and very harmful to legitimate investors. The SEC has been asleep at the switch on many fronts - and correctly criticized for their lack of oversight in virtually all of the crimes that have recently come to light - and the manipulation of SIRI certainly warrants their attention.

2009 Jul 01 07:45 AM

[SIRI-Doom]

MEL GET 250,000.00 RAISE and option to buy STOCK LOCKED AT 43 cents.
THAT EXTRA BOND MONEY JUST GOT SPENT!!!

On June 30, 2009, we entered into an amendment (the "Amendment") to the amended Employment Agreement, dated November 18, 2004, with Mel Karmazin (the "Employment Agreement"). The Amendment (i) extends the term of the Employment Agreement through and until December 31, 2012, (ii) increases his base salary from $1,250,000 per year to $1,500,000 per year beginning on January 1, 2010, and (iii) provides for the grant of an option to purchase 120,000,000 shares of our common stock, at an exercise price of $0.430 per share (the closing price of our common stock on June 30, 2009) (the "Option"). Other than as provided in the Amendment, the Employment Agreement will continue in accordance with its terms.

TRANSLATION for the "Unwashed"

Mel can now buy 120,000,000 shares at a locked in price of 43 cents. He can do the "AT ANY TIME" no matter the current trade value/price. So, if in January SIRI is 5.00, Mel can buy it for 43 cents.

(iii) provides for the grant of an option to purchase 120,000,000 shares of our common stock, at an exercise price of $0.430 per share (the closing price of our common stock on June 30, 2009) (the "Option").

Next time you hear "Oh, but Mel owns stock and also loses", remember how he gets paid.

READ IT TWICE. DO NOT ASK ME FOR PROOF NEXT WEEK
The link is here …

Please don't say it is NOT true next week. It has been posted!!!

2009 Jul 01 03:14 PM

[SIRI-Doom]

READ IT TWICE. DO NOT ASK ME FOR PROOF NEXT WEEK

The link is here …
biz.yahoo.com/e/090701...

MEL GET 250,000.00 RAISE and option to buy STOCK LOCKED AT 43 cents.

THAT EXTRA BOND MONEY JUST GOT SPENT!!!

2009 Jul 01 03:16 PM

[SIRI-Doom]

Next time you hear "Oh, but Mel owns stock and also loses", remember how he gets paid.

2009 Jul 01 03:17 PM

[Hawk180]

SIRI-Doom, what exactly is your purpose in trashing SIRIUS? It seem that you spend an inordinate amount of time posting negative blogs concerning this particular stock. I am just curious as to what you are hoping to accomplish.

2009 Jul 01 04:18 PM

[momentum74]

AGEN is in the midst of deciding if they should go to the FDA or not . Quote from today marketwatch/wsj article.
"We're in the midst of deciding whether we should go to the FDA or not, and, if so, what our strategy would be," said Armen

www.marketwatch.com/st...
.

Search results for "agen" | Jun. 30 | Search: Save search criteria in new or existing portfolio
Yesterday 10:23 AGEN Hearing positive chatter circulating regarding fast track approval speculation (1.97, +0.13, 7.07%)
25 Jun 2009 07:05 AGEN Expands investigator-sponsored Phase II study of Glioma - filing
- The Brain Tumor Research Center at the University of California, San Francisco, has expanded its P... (1.84, 0.00, 0.00%) more...
17 Jun 2009 07:01 AGEN QS-21 Adjuvant enters Phase III trial of GSK's malaria vaccine
- There are now approximately 15 vaccines containing QS-21 in clinical trials of which four have now... (1.94, 0.00, 0.00%) more... (related GSK )
10 Jun 2009 13:12 AGEN Hearing vague positive chatter circulating on prospects for the Oncophage approval in Europe (2.24, +0.17, 8.21%)
04 Jun 2009 09:24 AGEN Enters debt for equity exchange agreement with Tang Capital - filing dated 6/3
- Antigenics entered into a securities exchange deal with Tang Capital Partners, LP, a holder of an ... (24.90, 0.00, 0.00%) more...
03 Jun 2009 09:51 AGEN Strength attributed to chatter that FDA is set to fast track its kidney drug
- note: on 6/1, Antigenics presented positive Oncophage(R) interim survival data at ASCO. Analysis... (2.18, +0.65, 42.48%) more...
Source tradethenews.com

2009 Jul 01 08:16 PM

[relmar2003]

If this price stays under .43 cents, Mel makes zero dollars on this option plan. Yes, zero. Future projected sub value for SiriusXM gives SiriusXM a value of at least .65 cents(including all debt).
This is a forward projection, showing that SiriusXM is not priced right now with any upside, to even the most conservative view. All price targets are higher, and recent evaluations with no short term debt issuing pressure of the stock price short term, had both companies valued at 12 billion dollars each, seperate. If you want to know what an evaluation means , siri-doom, as you dont understand basic market concepts, let me know.

2009 Jul 01 08:37 PM

[SIRI-Doom]

LOL Someone wants you to believe that employee stock option is the same as options trading....

Relmar2003 you kill me with your misinformation... LoL...
What a nut.... hehehhehehheheh

2009 Jul 01 10:47 PM

[SIRI-Doom]

Diversion is when one mixes options trading language with employee options language to mess with your head. Then argue pointlessly to keep anyone from posting more bad about SIRI.
LOL

2009 Jul 01 11:20 PM