Mosaic: A Piece of the Ag Puzzle

By Brad Zigler

Real-time Monetary Inflation (per annum): 8.5%

Shareholders of agrichemical titan Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) were puzzling together the deployment prospects for some of the fat gains scored Monday after a 6% uptick in their stock's price.

Mosaic closed $2.59 higher at $45.94, ahead of a much-anticipated U.S. Agriculture Department acreage report. Weather improvements in the Corn Belt over the past few days have brightened the sales prospects of fertilizer producers like Mosaic.

Sympathetically, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (NYSE: POT) ran up $2.50, or 2.7%, to $95.60 Monday, while Monsanto Co. (NYSE: MON), finished 95 cents, or 1.3%, higher at $76.20.

The dry weather couldn't have come at a better time. Over the past two weeks, agribusiness stock momentum has been eclipsed by resurgent commodity prices.

The Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE Arca: MOO), an exchange-traded fund tracking global ag shares, had been steadily gaining ground on the futures-based PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE Arca: DBA) through mid-June.

Agribusiness Stocks (MOO) vs. Agricultural Commodities (DBA)

Monday's gain doesn't necessarily mean clear skies are ahead for Mosaic, though. There's still a lot of overhanging supply left over from last year's $140-a-share tumble.

Mosaic Co. (MOS) Year-to-Date Performance

Support now rests at $40.64, a 50% retracement of the November-May rally that topped out just shy of $60. The next upside objective is a close above $51.34, which would be a stage-setter for an assault on the stock's $55.29 intermediate trend target.

Comments

[johnbee:]

DBA has 10% of its value in the last month- not gained it - and Monsanto is down 15% - not up.

Jul 01 09:19 AM

[johnbee:]

I meant to say DBA has LOST 10% of its value in the last month.

Jul 01 09:20 AM