Ford Shares Unchanged Despite Better than Expected Monthly Sales

Ford Motor (F) shares were unchanged at $6.07, even as the automaker “surprised” the Street with better-than-expected monthly sales numbers. Ford auto sales fell 10.9 percent in June, which was significantly better than the -17 percent analysts had predicted.

However, the “whisper” number was probably higher, as sentiment in the options market seemed to reflect increasing levels of bullishness in the days heading into the news (see Monday and Tuesday color on F).

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Interestingly, it appears that some investors are still opening bullish positions, even as the news has passed. Since the numbers were released, ISEE sentiment data indicate that the number of opening call buyers on the ISE has increased by another 1,000 contracts to almost 10,000 on the session.

In addition, contrary to what one might expect, implied volatility is up, not down, since the news. Ford vols up to 64, from about 62 Tuesday. So, there might be more to this Ford story.

Comments

[Tdot:]

It seems obvious that there is a fair amount of late-session profit taking, perhaps from day-traders and other short-term investors. Most of the last several sessions show Ford stocks with (roughly) mid-day peaks, followed by similar sell-offs in the last hour or so. Typical of day-trading strategies - buy early and low, ride the upward tide, then sell off near or just after the afternoon peak for a profit of several cents per share. Repeat the next day.


The same sort of activity can seen in the "old" GM common shares - which are arguably somewhere between "lame duck" and "dead horse". Speculative investers stir up the pot, buying thousands of shares, trying to surf on a little momentum-rise, then selling off the hot potato to some suckers when there is a finally a profit to be made. The bottom suckers then try to wait for a little poke-and-bump buying session the next day to earn back their previous losses. Purely speculative buying, to try to wring a little blood from the turnip.

This will go on, playing hot-potato musical chairs until the old GM common shares suddenly (and finally) fall off the cliff to 1 cent per share, and there are no more adventurous speculators trying to make a fast buck off the other suckers.

Jul 02 04:17 PM