Mixed Bag

Yesterday we asked Bespoke readers where they thought the Dow would close at the end of 2009. As shown below, the results are scattered all over the place. There are slightly more bears than bulls, however, with 48% expecting the Dow to close higher than 8,500 and 52% expecting it to close lower. The response that got the most votes was >9,000, while <7,000 got the lowest vote total. Surprisingly, 12% of respondents think the Dow will close below 6,500 by the end of the year, which would be a decline of more than 24% from here. That got the fourth highest vote total. Only 29 respondents think the index will close higher than 10,500. With the Dow down 150 heading into the July 4th holiday weekend, the bears are off to a good start.

Comments

[Fitz919:]

We have a bigger problem than your poll shows. I studied today's employment report for June. They report Non-Farm Payrolls fell by 467K, but when you add up the job losses reported sector by sector the total job loss is 732K. Once again they cooked the books bigtime.

Jul 02 12:23 PM

[TradingHelp...:]

Nice article. The spread of votes suggests no-one has a clue where equities are going. But after a steady decline in the VIX I think we are seeing a return to volatility as investors re-examine their recovery timetable.

As for my stab in the dark guess, I'll go for a 9,000 plus, end to the year for the Dow, and circa 1,000 for the S&P.

Total guess and based on the fact we have 6 more months for confidence to improve, and if it does, we could get there pretty damn quick, as it's less then 10% away from current levels.

Jul 02 01:11 PM

[Prudent Man...:]

Some call WAGuesses research and analysis and actually get paid for it?

Does anyone actually know what a company like Exxon/Mobile is really worth? What their earnings are to the penny? What the next unaudited quarter is going to be to the penny? The companies CFO and Controller will, at most, give an analyst a range subject to change the next day. Many companies do manipulate their earning using non-cash items mainly in order to meet Wall Street expectations. It would be better if they just stuck to their knitting and competed in their industry.

Decades back financial statements were cleaner, independent auditors actually audited (see Enron and Nobel winner, Enron adviser Paul Krugman), and analysts actually did primary research rather than looking at spread sheets. It resulted in less volatility in the markets and an opportunity for those who put in the work to get the benefits of their labor.

Most Wall Street research on the sell-side is merely a function of Investment Banking. Buyer beware/

Jul 02 03:39 PM

[Lynn:]

Fitz: The Birth/Death model added 185k jobs to the NFP data.

Jul 03 02:34 PM

[Fitz919:]

Lynn thank you. Where did you find this number? I'd like to be able to find it every month.


On Jul 03 02:34 PM Lynn wrote:

> Fitz: The Birth/Death model added 185k jobs to the NFP data.

Jul 03 03:57 PM