Energies traded lower by 3.5-4.5% today. We will shortly be exploring longs in crude oil for clients. For those brave souls who are currently short we would advise trailing stops down to protect your profits. August crude oil should find support at $64.50 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level followed by $61.90 the 50% Fibonacci level. Natural gas did break the trend line in recent sessions so at the moment we would refrain from picking a bottom in futures. That being said we are still advising clients to accumulate October $1 call spreads.
The only 2 currencies that traded higher today were the US dollar and yen, if the stock market continues lower the yen should remain bid. We will not be trading the US dollar for clients but we will be paying very close attention as the dollar will set the tone for movement elsewhere. On a close above the 20 day moving average in the dollar at 80.64 in September look for further upside and for other currencies and commodities to falter. The only play we endorse currently in commodities is long exposure in the Loonie. Grains were lower today, clients got stopped out of their long corn at a loss today. Stops were executed at $3.48 in September and $3.58 in December. We will be looking for a long entry again after the holiday.
Gold goes into the holiday weekend down $10 closing just below the 50 day moving average. As long as prices stay above $900 we like being positioned long. September silver traded to its lowest price since May 5th. We are down on all our recent long entries for clients but we’re positioned for the next couple months and will be adding to the position when a bottom is confirmed. We still anticipate seeing $16 plus in the coming months. Continue to scale into shorts and puts in the March 10′ Euro-dollar. Equities are down a little over 2% heading into the long weekend and being prices are below the 50 day moving averages if we close below these levels look for more selling next week. We will be looking to re-enter cattle in a spread next week. Long December live cattle/ short October live cattle @ -50. Coffee and oj remain our picks in the softs sector.
