OFHEO Data Supports Housing Bottom Theory

I applaud Rebecca Wilder for doing some hard work. I have not yet studied the details, but she seems to be saying that some of the Western cities are getting too much weight in the Case-Shiller index, and as a result the OFHEO index is giving a more accurate picture.

That agrees with my rough impression. If we are right, housing prices suggest that the housing market has bottomed, although construction spending is not yet supporting that conclusion.

Comments

[conceptwizard:]

Sorry, not there yet on that conclusion. There are still more foreclosures than sales. Alt "A" and prime and HELOC still have delinquencies rising. Unemployment is worsening, no construction spending, this one is crucial. The banks are sitting on 600,000 houses to keep prices up according to Realtytrac. Housing has not reached its 100 year trend line yet, it still has 10% yet to fall and will probably go below (thats a prediction).

Jul 05 04:10 AM

[Jimmy K:]

Casey- its very simple. Housing has not bottomed, and it won't for some time. I'd like to hear a story about how you are driving around with Realtors every weekend looking to purchase now that we've bottomed...

If a home in your neighborhood with the same square footage, same lot size, same # of beds and baths- sells for a certain price point (even a foreclosure price point)... that is the "new" value of a home in your neighborhood. Always been that way, always will be that way.

Jul 06 07:34 AM

[swalter:]

Casey- the problem with you is that you appear to have an agenda to prop up prices and declare the end of the de-leveraging process without adequate support. In fact, all of your postings declare improvements-without support. In this one you refer to data that you really have not reviewed. And even worse-here you refer to your rough impression. We don't need rough impressions but rather solid analysis; we never get that from you and at times you provide ridiculous assertions. This is one of your countless postings where you need to provide full disclosure, but provide none. Yet, you can't believe that making unsupported, ridiculous assertions will influence a significant number of people. But maybe you do since you have asserted that the housing crisis was coming to an end due to technological advances in finance and real estate.

Jul 06 09:12 AM