Deflation vs. Inflation: The Great Debate Rages On

As we celebrate the 4th of the July in the USA, we find ourselves at a tipping point that will impact our financial conditions and quality of life for many years to come.

Most of you know, I don't create or sell any of my own trading services and I'm known for fiercely independent analysis. If I were selling a product or a service in the western world in the summer of 2009, would I be able to keep my prices at current levels? Would I have to lower them in order to keep up with the competition and/or accommodate the sinking incomes of my customers?

Robert J. Samuelson wrote an insightful article in Newsweek magazine recently titled "Deflation and Inflation? The Fed Could End Up Facing Both". What he wrote speaks to the confusing and paradoxical nature of the bizarre times we are living in.

To make sense of today's most perplexing economic debate--whether we're flirting with inflation or deflation--it's worth recalling what happened after WWII. Under intense political pressure, President Truman lifted wage-price controls. All heck broke loose.

Suppressed during the war, wages and prices exploded. Autoworkers, steelworkers and others went on strike for higher pay. In 1946 and 1947, consumer prices rose 8.5% and 14.4%, respectively.

"What's instructive," writes Samuelson,

...is that prices then stabilized. There was no wage-price spiral as occurred in the 1960s and 1970s. True, a mild recession in late 1948 and 1949 helped temper price increases. But inflation subsided mainly because people didn't expect it to continue.

They'd lived through the Depression, when prices declined. Except for wars, American prices were usually fairly stable.

The lesson for today: psychology matters [that is why consumer confidence, or the lack thereof, is so important]. What economists call "expectations" shape how workers, managers, investors behave. If they fear inflation, they act in ways that bring it about.

The converse is also true, as the late 1940s show. The lesson provides context for today's debate. Are the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies laying the groundwork for higher inflation?

"Or, will these policies prevent deflation --a broad decline of prices--that would deepen the economic slump?" Samuelson goes on to give the numbers we have all read a hundred times including

...to lower long-term interest rates, it's [the Federal Reserve] pledged [to buy] $1.25 trillion of mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and $300 billion of long-term Treasury bonds.

We all know these steps are without modern precedent. We also have been told that the billions and billions of bailout dollars that have been "loaned" to the banks have not made their way into the US economy yet.

In "normal times", banks wouldn't hold the trillions in bailout funds for a New York minute. They would loan it out over and over again. The bank loaning-multiplier would thus go to work and the trillions of dollars would get leveraged (via derivatives) many times over.

Banks would creates upwards of many hundreds of trillions of dollars of derivative-based debt. This is how new money and the "old derivatives time bomb" was created over the past 25 years. Apparently that isn't true for right now though. Now those trillions of dollars never get into circulation.

We are told that the banks have held onto that money to make their balance sheets look better, or they've loaned that money back to the Federal Reserve Banking system to earn some interest on it. Then when they don't need it any more, they pay it back to the treasury or the Fed (depending on who loaned them the money in the first place).

So in essence, the trillions of dollars in government bailouts to banks and big businesses don't technically create any inflation. By some measures it might even be called "deflationary".

How Does All This Impact the Price of Commodities, Stocks and Precious Metals?

This is the question that is most important to investors today. The answer isn't a simple one, but it is founded in the realities of "investor expectations", "market-making manipulations", "market psychology" and "the lack of real, objective oversight".

So when millions of investors are scared, uncertain and have begun to distrust governments, they often look for "surrogate currencies" such as gold and silver...even when there are no signs of inflation or rising cost-of-living threats. Investor and consumer confidence might be, in reality, at an all-time low, so who's going to believe promises by Ben Bernanke or Timothy Geithner?

Any wonder that people have put billions of dollars in ETFs like GLD, SLV, USO, DBO, DBC and UNG. As you read later in this article, you'll see that many investors want alternatives to paper currencies and traditional fiat investments.

In my 40 years of personal investment experience, I've never seen more fear, more confusion among investors and less accountability by the exchanges and marketplaces where stocks, bond, commodities and precious metals are traded. Even if the rumors and stories are not true, millions of us believe they are.

Just look at the bond market, silver market or some of the stock exchanges. They appear to be highly manipulated, with stories abounding that even the Federal Reserve buys and sells at will.

Banks, mutual funds, pensions funds, hedge funds, governments, soveriegn wealth funds and the list goes on and on all seem to play a role in which direction the price of stocks, bonds, gold, silver, oil, natural gas and many other commodities go. If you think I'm wrong, I challenge you to prove me wrong, because I wish I was wrong.

There is no doubt that the price of everything from homes, food, natural gas, labor and lipstick clearly seems to be dropping. By strict historical metrics I would have to conclude there is deflation and deflationary forces are at work in the world economy today, right here, right now.

Part of this is the results of the manifold "bubbles" that were so carelessly inflated over the past 25 years. Blow-up a balloon too much and "POP", or at the very best, you cause several deflationary leaks.

But in the final analysis, the "BIG PLAYERS" in the investment and financial world are able to make the price of anything go up or down as they dictate, no matter how much or how little inflation exists in the world of the "LITTLE PEOPLE"...the peons that are just pawns in their game of "Make-Me-Richer-At-Your-Expense-Chess".

This, to me,is a foregone conclusion. So hedge your bets investors, and wake up and smell the corruption. Just when you think inflation is dead, "they" can manipulate supplies and statistics to make you think inflation has come roaring back. As one fund manager said on Bloomberg news the other day, "the future is not about inflation or deflation, it's about re-flation".

When asked what "reflation" is all about, he said,

When the governments, banks and the 'smart money' want to start blowing up their commodity and investment 'bubbles', they will do so and everyone will breathe a sigh of relief. They want to 're-flate' the investment markets again as soon as possible, so that's why we think that investments in commodities and natural resources will be the best investments in the years ahead.

Perhaps that is the bottom line to this discussion and to the great "deflation vs. inflation" debate. It appears to be more about what the market manipulators are planning to do next than whether the price of meat, gasoline or houses are going up or going down. Prove me wrong and I'll sing your praises.

Disclosures: I do own some UNG, SLV and GLD

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

Even if markets aren't manipulated much, it can sometimes simplify analysis to think that they are. Cui bono? If there's a huge benefit to the Big Boys in an up-move, that should be given due weight. Likewise, if it looks like it would be wise for them to take profits at a certain point (like now), maybe one should ride their coat-tails.

Jul 05 07:35 AM

[Roger Knights:]

PS: Keeping an open mind about manipulation prevents one from getting trapped in the box of current knowledge and opinion. Many times when there's a price move, it seems as though it couldn't have been rationally justified beforehand. "Manipulation" can be a placeholder for irrationality, black ducklings, etc., allowing one to hold open the possibility of "unjustified" price movements. It can prevent one from getting too attached to opinions that "make sense."

Jul 05 07:46 AM

[six:]

LOVE the piece. It is right on point. This is the final war between the wealthy a\nd everyone else. The only thing you don't take into account is the destruction of available credit combined with debt destruction is a very limiting factor on consumer spending and could result in up to a 30% reduction in GDP

Jul 05 08:04 AM

[cameroni:]

Exactly Roger. Go with the trend (especially if it's a tidal wave). But be careful to not get overexposed. The rug can still get pulled out from under us on too short of notice. And here I am thinking in particular about precious metals. To some it is the best bet, the only good bet but I beg to differ. There are risks inherent that could come back to kick us in the butt if we invest too much in one horse. I love gold, but not enough to go all-in.

Jul 05 08:08 AM

[I need more...:]

Excellent piece. I have one not disagreement, but perhaps a different possibility:
" But in the final analysis, the "BIG PLAYERS" in the investment and financial world are able to make the price of anything go up or down as they dictate, no matter how much or how little inflation exists in the world of the "LITTLE PEOPLE"...the peons that are just pawns in their game of "Make-Me-Richer-At-You...

I would have wholeheartedly agreed before, but the BP's over-reach this time may have talken away that ability. Don't know.

Jul 05 08:41 AM

[GregZw:]

Inflation is coming and it will be caused by a different force than the last spirals. This one will be created by the massive deficit. The government has not choice but to tax and/or print their way out of it.

When your a business and have already cut expenses to the bone to survive, you must either pass tax increases on or perish.

Think about every soda, beer, wine or cigarette going up 10% at every vending machine, restaurant, grocery store, and sports event. How about sales taxes (percent of sale) on the soda's?

Local governments will begin raising your property tax rates to make up for lost revenue from declining appraisals.

Income taxes WILL rise. Your benefits will become taxable and your deductions phased out. This is all happening to every small business not just individuals. These ultimately must also be passed on.

You will bear the costs of "cap and trade" but the benefits will go to greedy politicians and corporate pirates not the environment but believe me the cost of everything that creates or uses energy will go up dramatically especially your electric bill.

Again, same for small businesses and they will have to pass these increases along or perish.

When the inflation appears during the next two years, think about whether it came from taxes or just newly printed money.

Jul 05 08:53 AM

[CautiousInv...:]

I don't think they are mutualy exclusive.........with the timeframe being of paramount importance.

In the near term there are deflationary pressures as evidenced in US housing, Japan and the Eurozone. Along with high levels of unemployment, there is much excess capacity suppressing prices.

Longer-term expectations, though, are different and are being shaped by rapid increases in the money supply, the expanding Fed balance sheet and the avalanche of debt to be unloaded on world markets by the Treasury over the next years. And there is also concern that the Fed, if necessary, will help Treasury by monetizing debt through direct purchases of debt.

The US is faced with the choice of either paring back its budget deficits and monetary base as soon as the current risks of deflation dissipate, or setting the stage for a potential upsurge in inflation.

Quoting Alan Greenspan:

"The Federal Reserve, when it perceives that the unemployment rate is poised to decline, will presumably start to allow its short-term assets to run off, and either sell its newly acquired bonds, notes and asset-backed securities or, if that proves too disruptive to markets, issue (with congressional approval) Fed debt to sterilise, or counter, what is left of its huge expansion of the monetary base. Thus, interest rates would rise well before the restoration of full employment, a policy that, in the past, has not been viewed favourably by Congress. Moreover, unless US government spending commitments are stretched out or cut back, real interest rates will be likely to rise even more, owing to the need to finance the widening deficit."

Jul 05 09:35 AM

[stocknerd:]

Inflation is NOT in sight. Sorry all you financial gurus. It just ain't. All that money may be just filling up the recession/almost a depression hole we are in RIGHT NOW. Please one crisis at a time. I would love to see a little inflation now in house prices and wages. No inflation. None. Nada. Zip.

Jul 05 09:39 AM

[I need more...:]

It is impossible to have price/wages inflation when velocity is as low as it has been in many many years, and savings continues to increase, and debt continues to be delevered. Un-and-underemployment ( cash flow) continues to put deflationary pressure everywhere; wealth destruction, USA, estimated to be $20T and rising. Banks aren't lending, companies aren't asking to borrow research.stlouisfed.or...
Deflation, period.
That leaves dollar devaluation relative to other fiat currencies. A good discussion, the Chinese would love an alternative, and way down the road there will be one eventually, but not for quite some time.




On Jul 05 09:39 AM stocknerd wrote:

> Inflation is NOT in sight. Sorry all you financial gurus. It just
> ain't. All that money may be just filling up the recession/almost
> a depression hole we are in RIGHT NOW. Please one crisis at a time.
> I would love to see a little inflation now in house prices and wages.
> No inflation. None. Nada. Zi

Jul 05 09:50 AM

[Tony Daltorio:]

Apparently you missed the point of the article completely and have been duped by the Big Boys.

Deflation is a complete myth invented by Wall Street and the US Treasury so they can get "suckers" to buy Treasuries at ridiculously low interest rates.

The only "deflation" that is occuring is in the value of assets that had bubble type valuations such as US housing and US stocks, both of which are still overvalued and will fall further.

The value of "real" goods and services are inflating due to the decline in the value of the US Dollar among other factors.


On Jul 05 09:39 AM stocknerd wrote:

> Inflation is NOT in sight. Sorry all you financial gurus. It just
> ain't. All that money may be just filling up the recession/almost
> a depression hole we are in RIGHT NOW. Please one crisis at a time.
> I would love to see a little inflation now in house prices and wages.
> No inflation. None. Nada. Zip.

Jul 05 11:17 AM

[D. McHattie:]

We are still talking about inflation and deflation as though they affect all assets, goods and services equally. This is usually, in general, true. But not now.

While I believe that it is never 'different this time', I also believe that each situation is slightly unique.

What makes our current situation unique is the uneven impact of inflation and deflation.

The most important factor today is the decline of US dollar hegemony. Not only do our trading partners no longer want to hold our currency as their reserves, they don't want to conduct transactions between each other in our currency. The dollar will decline.

As the dollar declines, the value of everything that cannot be exported from the US declines. Real estate, for one, is impossible to export and will continue to fall. US labour is another item whose value will diminish.

Labour-intensive goods and services made/provided in the US for the US market will decline in price. This is bad news for factory workers, barbers, landscapers, truck drivers, etc.

Items sold on the international markets will increase (ie: ag commodities, base metals). So will items that can take the place the US dollar currently occupies as a reserve (ie: precious metals).

Jul 05 11:24 AM

[basehitz:]

Marc, your provocative articles always get me thinking. Thank you.

Footprints from Da Boyz antics is getting increasingly hard to refute. Matt Taibbi's Rolling Stone article is a good read.
www.rollingstone.com/p...#

Or you can spend hours browsing Mike Morgan's site who just prevailed against GS in court:
www.goldmansachs666.com/

There are many others (e.g., Zero Hedge)

On historical inflation, Barry Ritholtz shows a helpful historical context. The opening graph tells the story.
www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../

A more troubling long term prognostication is offered by Chris Martenson’s “Crash Course”, Chapter 10 on Inflation from 1665-2008 (yes that's 400 years ago)
www.chrismartenson.com...
His arguments are compelling. I've watched the entire 30 hour presentation. The implications are disturbing. I'm still wrestling with the concept.

My current assessment is:
1) deflation near term
2) Neither the govt or Bazooka Ben will have the resolve of Paul Volcher to do what is necessary to reign in the printing press.
3) a wide basket of commodities are increasingly scarce.
4) A near term market correction will rally USD and reduce commodities.
5) If 1-4 unfold, gradually add commodities and those that produce them. Since Da Boyz don’t include me on their email list, I move gradually where valuations are already good, in case I’m wrong about a market correction.
6) Last week started new positions in NE (29) and RIG (<70). I think majority opinion over-estimates availability of cheap oil. Energy complex including the commodities are the primary targets if selloff takes hold. I’ve also started positions in grains and softs. Base metals and PM are also being carefully watched.

In time, I expect inflation to again accelerate, but growth to lag, particularly in developed countries.

Jul 05 11:30 AM

[I need more...:]

You must be the world's worst shopper, dude. I can buy anything way cheaper today than 1 year ago; I can't believe some of the sales I'm seeing, on everything, eveywhere. My food bill is down 34%; if I needed clothes, i can get 60-70 % off.



On Jul 05 11:17 AM Tony Daltorio wrote:

> Apparently you missed the point of the article completely and have
> been duped by the Big Boys.
>
> Deflation is a complete myth invented by Wall Street and the US Treasury
> so they can get "suckers" to buy Treasuries at ridiculously low interest
> rates.
>
> The only "deflation" that is occuring is in the value of assets that
> had bubble type valuations such as US housing and US stocks, both
> of which are still overvalued and will fall further.
>
> The value of "real" goods and services are inflating due to the decline
> in the value of the US Dollar among other factors.

Jul 05 01:41 PM

[donzelion:]

Seems to me inflation and deflation can coexist if one conceives of the money supply less as a "flow of capital" and more as a series of gusts and flurries (and certainly not as a "stash" or "hoard" of capital). Rather than fixating upon the possibilities of manipulation, it would be more useful to focus upon the certainties of the effect of insurance instruments - devices that never figure in regular calculations of the money supply (M0, M1, M2, or M3), but always affect the movements of the money supply.

In the market for insurance instruments, manipulation is less likely to be the defining problem than miscalculation. In every miscalculation, one party is likely to benefit more (or lose less, in relative terms) than another - but to think that the beneficiary is in control of the arrangement is to mislead, and worse, to misdiagnose the underlying problems - paralyzing oneself with blame, rather than embracing the humility of inherent uncertainties in investing.

Jul 05 01:51 PM

[Marc Courtenay:]

Excellent points Roger Knights. Your comments should be read twice by us all. Thanks!


On Jul 05 07:46 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> PS: Keeping an open mind about manipulation prevents one from getting
> trapped in the box of current knowledge and opinion. Many times when
> there's a price move, it seems as though it couldn't have been rationally
> justified beforehand. "Manipulation" can be a placeholder for irrationality,
> black ducklings, etc., allowing one to hold open the possibility
> of "unjustified" price movements. It can prevent one from getting
> too attached to opinions that "make sense."

Jul 05 02:54 PM

[Marc Courtenay:]

The BPs are being more discreet then ever (as far as I can see), but they still call the shots and make the rules.


On Jul 05 08:41 AM I need more cowbell wrote:

> Excellent piece. I have one not disagreement, but perhaps a different
> possibility:
> " But in the final analysis, the "BIG PLAYERS" in the investment
> and financial world are able to make the price of anything go up
> or down as they dictate, no matter how much or how little inflation
> exists in the world of the "LITTLE PEOPLE"...the peons that are just
> pawns in their game of "Make-Me-Richer-At-You...
>
> I would have wholeheartedly agreed before, but the BP's over-reach
> this time may have talken away that ability. Don't know.

Jul 05 02:57 PM

[Marc Courtenay:]

Tony Daltorio has focused on the points of my article well. Way to go!


On Jul 05 11:17 AM Tony Daltorio wrote:

> Apparently you missed the point of the article completely and have
> been duped by the Big Boys.
>
> Deflation is a complete myth invented by Wall Street and the US Treasury
> so they can get "suckers" to buy Treasuries at ridiculously low interest
> rates.
>
> The only "deflation" that is occuring is in the value of assets that
> had bubble type valuations such as US housing and US stocks, both
> of which are still overvalued and will fall further.
>
> The value of "real" goods and services are inflating due to the decline
> in the value of the US Dollar among other factors.

Jul 05 03:04 PM

[Marc Courtenay:]

However, Tony misses the boat when he wrote, "The value of "real" goods and services are inflating due to the decline in the value of the US Dollar among other factors.". Right now the value of goods and services are declining because the supply far outweighs the demand and consumer's empty pocketbooks.


On Jul 05 11:17 AM Tony Daltorio wrote:

> Apparently you missed the point of the article completely and have
> been duped by the Big Boys.
>
> Deflation is a complete myth invented by Wall Street and the US Treasury
> so they can get "suckers" to buy Treasuries at ridiculously low interest
> rates.
>
> The only "deflation" that is occuring is in the value of assets that
> had bubble type valuations such as US housing and US stocks, both
> of which are still overvalued and will fall further.
>
> The value of "real" goods and services are inflating due to the decline
> in the value of the US Dollar among other factors.

Jul 05 03:05 PM

[Marc Courtenay:]

Well said and very realistic.


On Jul 05 11:24 AM D. McHattie wrote:

> We are still talking about inflation and deflation as though they
> affect all assets, goods and services equally. This is usually,
> in general, true. But not now.
>
> While I believe that it is never 'different this time', I also believe
> that each situation is slightly unique.
>
> What makes our current situation unique is the uneven impact of inflation
> and deflation.
>
> The most important factor today is the decline of US dollar hegemony.
> Not only do our trading partners no longer want to hold our currency
> as their reserves, they don't want to conduct transactions between
> each other in our currency. The dollar will decline.
>
> As the dollar declines, the value of everything that cannot be exported
> from the US declines. Real estate, for one, is impossible to export
> and will continue to fall. US labour is another item whose value
> will diminish.
>
> Labour-intensive goods and services made/provided in the US for the
> US market will decline in price. This is bad news for factory workers,
> barbers, landscapers, truck drivers, etc.
>
> Items sold on the international markets will increase (ie: ag commodities,
> base metals). So will items that can take the place the US dollar
> currently occupies as a reserve (ie: precious metals).

Jul 05 03:07 PM

[Marc Courtenay:]

You give much good food for thought Basehitz. I really appreciated the Rolling Stone article and video. It tells it like it is. My point is that we really don't know for sure what Da Boyz will do tomorrow, so we have to hedge our investments as each of us sees fit so we can benefit from both illusions..."deflation or inflation" and yes, prepare for the possibility of "stagflation". Thanks for your comment.


On Jul 05 11:30 AM basehitz wrote:

> Marc, your provocative articles always get me thinking. Thank you.
>
>
> Footprints from Da Boyz antics is getting increasingly hard to refute.
> Matt Taibbi's Rolling Stone article is a good read.
> www.rollingstone.com/p...#
>
>
> Or you can spend hours browsing Mike Morgan's site who just prevailed
> against GS in court:
> www.goldmansachs666.com/
>
> There are many others (e.g., Zero Hedge)
>
> On historical inflation, Barry Ritholtz shows a helpful historical
> context. The opening graph tells the story.
> www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../
>
> A more troubling long term prognostication is offered by Chris Martenson’s
> “Crash Course”, Chapter 10 on Inflation from 1665-2008 (yes that's
> 400 years ago)
> www.chrismartenson.com...;br/>His
> arguments are compelling. I've watched the entire 30 hour presentation.
> The implications are disturbing. I'm still wrestling with the concept.
>
>
> My current assessment is:
> 1) deflation near term
> 2) Neither the govt or Bazooka Ben will have the resolve of Paul
> Volcher to do what is necessary to reign in the printing press.<br/>3)
> a wide basket of commodities are increasingly scarce.
> 4) A near term market correction will rally USD and reduce commodities.
>
> 5) If 1-4 unfold, gradually add commodities and those that produce
> them. Since Da Boyz don’t include me on their email list, I move
> gradually where valuations are already good, in case I’m wrong about
> a market correction.
> 6) Last week started new positions in NE (29) and RIG (<70). I think
> majority opinion over-estimates availability of cheap oil. Energy
> complex including the commodities are the primary targets if selloff
> takes hold. I’ve also started positions in grains and softs. Base
> metals and PM are also being carefully watched.
>
> In time, I expect inflation to again accelerate, but growth to lag,
> particularly in developed countries.
>

Jul 05 03:19 PM

[Spartacuss:]

Socialism, anybody? I think we tend to forget that the strong move to the left is impacting everything. I.e., the government now has a mandate to steal our wealth for all those noble purposes, " the end justifies the means" mentality and of course the minds in the public sector realize that the only real tool they have is to re-allocate.

When you meld these forces as the author describes and then add in the political mantras, we have the perfect storm. Much destruction is coming and has already manifested itself and thus you have the wanton destruction of wealth which comes now in two phases, first the deflation, and then comes the inflation and all along through this swamp we will have meddling in the markets.

What to do? Get lucky, of course. Have a gamblers attitude, take a position and bet on it, else, buy some gold and ride out the low.

Jul 05 03:32 PM

[Jimbo:]

I agree with Mr. Courtnay that the price of some things are presently declining. Real estate is certainly declining. But if you are not a real estate investor, your home is a seldom purchased item. Those of us living on essentially fixed incomes find almost every food item increasing in price, or downsizing in containers. Even before any "cap and trade",utilities in my state are getting substantial rate increases. My state, like many others, is in budget deficit. The legislature has raised consumer taxes and dramatically raised "fees" on almost everything. This is occurring in an environment where unemployment and underemployment are raging. Consumers are trimming around the edges: cutting cable TV, land phone lines,newspaper subscriptions,home maintenance etc. There is a serious squeeze on working class and middle class, whatever those terms mean.

Jul 05 05:11 PM

[Gregman2:]

"By strict historical metrics I would have to conclude there is deflation and deflationary forces are at work in the world economy today, right here, right now." Debt levels (for consumers and businesses) have a lot to do with this in that buying power has dried up.

Jul 05 10:23 PM

[MGA_1:]

Hmm... deflation *should* be taking hold, but the fed sure it moving a lot of money into the economy. The thing I'm really looking for is if (and most likely when), the fed starts purchasing treasuries directly. If things really start looking bad again and interest rates start creeping up, I wouldn't be surprised if the fed wades on in to the t bill market...

Jul 05 10:40 PM

[Steve Soden:]

Manipulation is here for now but all this Money creation will tilt our Economy one way or the other hard.
No one knows right now what will happen but this creation of Debt will clobber us soon!
In the end a New System will be formed and we'll be somewhere in The Mix being a Wealthy Nation.
It would seem Hard Assets will be prized and Fiat Currencies will be adjusted to lower values.
Property and Commodities make sense as investments, everything else will be adjusted lower.
Devalued Dollars will have to pay off the same debt creating more Economic Upheaval, Cash will truly be King!
Silver makes sense to me since it is an Industrial Metal all can afford. Bury it in The Ground!
Yes, Deflation will rule as it has so far.

Jul 06 03:53 AM