Siemens' Corruption Issues

Includes: GE, SIEGY
by: Wisdom vs. Information

Siemens (SI) has been fined 100 million dollars over fifteen years, and barred from bidding on the World Bank's portfolio. The World Bank's portfolio is worth about 140 million dollars sales a year to Siemens.

SI's PM is usually below 5%, but let's be conservative and reduce Siemen's profit 10% PM. Subtract the present value of 100 million dollars fine at 10% over fifteen years and 14 million earnings a year PV, and you have a net decrease in PV of ~$0.0724, $0.65 at 9x PE.

Since the price of SI dropped ~$4, I admit I was wrong about the corruption scandal not materially affecting SI; on the other hand, the numbers say this is a $0.65 fine, not a $4 fine, so I would not be surprised if SI goes back up to $69 on Monday. (The price was already down to $66.77 before the job numbers clobbered the rest of the market.)

At $10.66 re-affirmed guidance, reduce annual guidance by $0.024 (annual cash, not PV) to $10.63, and you still get a price of ~$95 at a 9PEx, or ~$85 at 8PEx. So SI will get a nice bump if earnings come in at guidance; S&P is valuing SI at 9PEx.

Repeating what I said before, SI has 25% of earnings from their green portfolio, and one really cold winter could turn that backlog into a liability if Europeans lose interest in cap-and-trade.

Note: I keep track of SI because I am long GE