Update on My 2009 Economic Predictions

In early January I listed 12 items that I thought will or will not happen in 2009 in my post 12 Predictions for 2009. Half way through I take at look at those predictions to evaluate where we are.

Here goes.

1. I'll start off with something that I think is not likely to happen. Microsoft (MSFT) will not make a move for Yahoo! (YHOO) in any capacity. [So far dead-on with this prediction.]

2. Expedia and Priceline will attempt to merge but there may be anti-trust issues raised. [This is looking like a long-shot but I am sticking with it.]

3. Yahoo! and eBay (EBAY) will explore ways to cooperate or work together. Could lead to a merger down the road. [This is also looking like a long-shot but I think Bartz and Donahoe should consider. Let's see what happens in the next six months.]

4. The U.S. dollar will crash mid-year. [That has started and given the BRIC's call for a new reserve currency, the dollar could spiral downwards as we progress through year- end.]

5. Inflation will become an issue once again. [Haven't seen clear signs of this in the economic numbers but economic theory is on the side of this prediction. I am sticking with it for the next six months.]

6. The market will run-up into the Obama stimulus package but will then correct by 20%. [Dead-on. That occurred from January to mid-March.]

7. AOL remains independent, i.e., no buyer surfaces. [They are going public so I am dead-on here.]

8. Bankrate (RATE) will be purchased by a traditional media company. Tom - get out while the going is good. [They should have listened to me. Make it happen in the next six months.]

9. Several large retailers will file for bankruptcy as well as a few major financial institutions. [At last count, 52 financial institutions told us peace-out in 2009. Don't have the number of retailers handy.]

10. Google (GOOG) may look to buy what's left of Sun Microsystems (JAVA). [Right on Sun being acquired, but wrong on the acquirer. IBM was the suitor. Still a pat on the back for calling the acquisition.]

11. There will be several major oil field discoveries around the globe, particularly Eastern Europe and Asia. [Dead-on with this one. Now I am hearing of one near New Orleans.]

12. The New York Knicks makes a play for Lebron James. [Being a fan of all sport teams in NYC and a big fan of Lebron, this was wishful thinking on my part. Plus, I erroneously thought Lebron was a free agent this year; however, he has one year left on his contract with the Cavaliers. This will be No.1 on my list of predictions for 2010.]

Comments

[Prudent Man...:]

People who pat themsleves on the back break their arm sooner or later.

Jul 05 10:50 AM

[David Spence:]

Out of all your predictions I wish you were right on #12 I can't believe how bad they suck....

Jul 06 09:24 AM

[john mullinax:]

For the record, Oracle bought Sun.... (the IBM deal fell apart).

Jul 06 12:30 PM

[Media Tech ...:]

Thanks for the clarification.


On Jul 06 12:30 PM john mullinax wrote:

> For the record, Oracle bought Sun.... (the IBM deal fell apart).

Jul 12 03:15 PM

[Media Tech ...:]

You maybe right. Pride typically goes before a fall.


On Jul 05 10:50 AM Prudent Man CFA wrote:

> People who pat themsleves on the back break their arm sooner or later.

Jul 12 03:16 PM